I wanted to aggregate some of the things that the NBER considers when determining a recession, and provide three links that people can follow to monitor for recession likelihood. The NBER uses lagging data so they officially declare recessions after they've been under way for some time and sometimes at their conclusion. However, we can monitor the data points...
Excellent gap up on earnings for $NASDAQ:SBUX. The move reclaims the 200SMA and price action has filled the expected range when taking a measure from prior swing low through the gap. Now lets see what kind of momentum can follow through.
Todays move brings NYSE:SHOP above its 50, 100, and 200 moving averages. Note how perfectly price action moved in between volume weighted average price anchored to the May gap up, July high, and August low. A pullback to put in support at 53.94 (the 0.382 of the most recent retrace) would make me comfortable with further continuation. This would line up with the...
It's important to look at multiple data points in labor and consumer reporting before drawing conclusions. Be skeptical of any financial or social media presenting a single data point as something to be optimistic or pessimistic about. The chart covers comparative labor information: Job openings (blue) are coming down quickly, which we've heard a lot about....
It's important to look at multiple data points in labor and consumer reporting before drawing conclusions. Be skeptical of any financial or social media presenting a single data point as something to be optimistic or pessimistic about. This chart reviews income, spending, and borrowing data: M2 money supply (bright green) is included so that we can visualize...
AMEX:SOXS is trying to tell us that it's time to hedge our semi positions. I'm looking for a full candle close over 13.92 for final confirmation and to anchor my fib time zone from the summer lows
DJ:DJT Transports are getting killed. August was a significant change in trend. A test of the light blue area is possible and could like up with early Nov with mid Dec as possible rebound if the time zones remain relevant.
INDEX:BTCUSD has continued to navigate this matrix of ascending and descending trendlines all year. I drew the majority of this with a fib time zone in January. Price regularly finds support and resistance within these trend lines, particularly when they have confluence with an anchored VWAP. I added a new fib time zone in blue connecting the mid August low to...
I like SOL's potential for a longer term measured move to the 36-41 range. I do think that we'll need to global net liquidity increase before we can plan for that longer term target. In the near term, I took profit on my recent SOL trade and will plan to re-accumulate between 24-25. I see likelihood for a BTC to hit overhead resistance, with potential to bring...
AMEX:XLU has long been considered a safe sector for fixed income. Increasing cost of debt and regulatory restrictions on revenue with continued rising rates eventually pushed the largest growth opportunities in the sector out of favor and put downward pressure on the entire sector. Before the market came to appreciate this fundamental shift we can observe a...
Yesterdays close brought SOL above VWAPs anchored to its most recent local highs and lows, breaking above a descending triangle that formed with the July highs. Taking a measure from the the breakout into the formation to the breakout of the formation suggests that the next overhead resistance is likely $26.15-26.75 which also aligns to the 0.786 fib retrace from...
NYSE:SYK - The market is trying to price in the impact of NYSE:NVO and NYSE:LLY GLP1's on treatments associated with diabetes and obesity. This has led to a broad drawdown across medical devices, with IHI medical devices ETF dropping about 10% this week. Note the middle of this chart where I've compared IHI/NVO to SYK/NVO. SYK specializes in medical devices...
I posted recently about how the top stocks leading the market is a persistent trend, and not an anomaly. If the market continues for a strong finish to 2023 (which would be consistent with seasonality and a third year of a presidential cycle), investors late to join recovery from August & September seasonal lows and those currently being short squeezed may feel...
This has been a rough month for utilities. We might be due for a slight bounce, but this sectors regulated pricing, dependence on debt, and previous attraction to income investors (now better served by treasuries) are all likely to be ongoing headwinds. Some key shifts in trend are highlighted: Beginning of 2022 the Fed starts easing rates higher and begins...
Does anyone else wonder why financial media has rebranded the top stocks to the magnificent 7 and then portrayed their dominance as an anomaly instead of the primary trend? A 10 year look at "tHe 7 StOcKs ThAt ArE LeAdInG ThE MaRkEt" vs the SPX-MAG7
There is some consensus that the oil trade is over. I'm watching this last area of support before coming into agreement. Price fell through the VWAP anchored to this summers breakout and wicked down to test the VWAP anchored to the June 2022 high. As long as we are seeing price close above this level I will lean toward this being a correction to an uptrend.
ANF has had a couple of strong gaps up. The last exceeded its measured range. While it looks like we may have missed the opportunity, we're coming up on its highest performing month of the year. Over the past 20 years it closes November higher 60% of the time with an average gain of 8%. To play this one, I'd look for a smaller play on a pullback to 51-52, which...
Reclaiming some key VWAPs. I like seeing a daily open above this descending trendline and above VWAP anchored to the last time it had an open above it. The last two daily pivots occurred on the fib timezone that I drew from the drop on 8/17 to the pivot on 8/30. The next one lines up with 10/21