I have been waiting for a few things to play out before even dreaming of posting the idea of a short. But we are at a spot I will be seeing how it plays out and it may not fully trigger till next week, but figured give you heads up.
We have reached the top of the formation on the chart and is the area I have been looking at for retrace, so added a bit of short puts for a possible swing short next week.
The confluence at the lower lever and the 1 hour chart reacting at that level has me buy a very small low risk call option trade.
This has been a very contained back and forth 20 plus days long range. This range also has had a decreasing daily range also until late this week. I will be watching for a break of this general area, This to me is the turning point to a larger retrace or a move back up traveling the entire range to the ATH area. Step back and ask, this coming week who is winning...
The top target looks more and more likely to me. However the tight range of the last 6 days has to break up or down decisively to motivate me to take any position in the indices. I will be keeping an eye on larger time frames to see if they are giving me clues. Other than that real simple, doing nothing till the market does, maybe some tiny play positions.
I am not adding any long term positions. I am adjusting some Delta as we move up. Trade short time frame trades until the consolidation is exceeded. When this breaks out I think we could see a nice sized multi day move so be ready.
If the candle forming today closes inside the top 30% of the prior candle i will be using it to trigger trades tomorrow. Will update this idea as the market develops.
The chart tells the entire plan. I do look for around 20 minutes plus of trading time into a level for me to call it broke. I give the idea about a 55% chance based on early action.
The green line is my line that is a bull bear line and if we hold above will be looking for a place to get long. Below this line my long conviction is gone.
Let keep an eye on prior high and if that is exceeded then long trade is back in play!
The arange circle is the area i will be looking to see if we get supporting action. if we do get support with impulisive moves on monday will enter a trade. however if we go sideways with lower drift, my long would not be starting till around Tuesday.
This week looks to be ending as a inside week and so was last week. I need market to pick a side next week or expect more grinding slightly bullish chop.
I will look for a further move to fist target then see if we reverse and fix lower structure or alternatively keep moving much higher before trying for that lower target. So Tuesday look for a bit more to the long side, but not be dumb if market disagrees. Will follow the action but using my targets as trade expectations.
As long as we stay in this box the trading is tight and fast with no direction or big moves. Looking for it to break before getting excited at all
the conditions have met for me to take a option spread short, I can do this with debit put spreads or credit long spreads or a combination of both. using both will reduce cost. The key is at this point keep risk well in control.
from a long time back published these megaphone patterns, we are now moving all the indices into the expanding top. Have been leaning long most day trades but now as we get to the two topping areas if market shows weakness will go short.
Trading short from range tops and longs from range bottoms, This is a chop zone and will keep trading this way until range breaks. The range may expand before breaking so be on the outlook for that.
will be watching red line for break to up side to target next higher red line. A break lower will toss long out the window.