mintdotfinance

mintdotfinance

World's most important and the largest financial market is the US Treasury. Annual issuance of U.S. Treasuries has exploded. A record USD 23 trillion of treasuries were issued in 2023. This market is experiencing gradual but notable shifts due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) recent tapering of quantitative tightening and the Treasury buyback. Collective impact has...

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“The only bad time to buy real estate is later” cites investment wisdom. But, when interest rates soar high, real estate investments can and do hurt. Last week FOMC reiterated its resolve to fight inflation down to its target 2%. Inflation has been stubborn and sticky. It has shown signs of trend reversal towards resurgence. Chair Powell’s made clear that rate...

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Tesla is the 7th worst performer YTD in the Nasdaq-100. It is the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. The stock stands 28% lower. Still, after reaching its lowest level on 22/April, the stock has rallied a remarkable 30%. On 24/April, the stock rallied 12% after the positive earnings call. On 29/April, the stock jumped another 15% after the announcement of the...

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You cannot predict the future. But you can prepare for it. Mega cap tech stocks have collectively lost USD 930 billion in value since Nasdaq 100 peaked on 21st March 2024. Will Super Sevens earnings turn the tide? Starting this week, the Super Sevens will start announcing first quarter results. NASDAQ:TSLA is up first on 23/Apr (Tue) followed by NASDAQ:META ...

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It is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations. Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is...

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Intricate dance between gold and copper prices is a tale beyond mere metals. It reflects global economic sentiments, industrial demand, geopolitical angst, and investment trends. Gazing into the crystal ball to decipher the future of the gold to copper ratio, a fascinating narrative unfolds, particularly highlighting copper's brighter prospects. Copper is...

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In US Treasury Auctions, the Bid to Cover ratio signals the strength of an auction. A higher ratio implies greater demand. As rate cut expectations and economic outlook evolves, so do the spreads across different maturities. This paper provides US economic overview, resultant rate outlook, and divergence in auction demand across different...

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Crude oil prices have remained lacklustre and rangebound in 2024. Slow economic growth and abundant production have kept prices muted. OPEC's efforts of supply cuts haven’t helped. Neither have geopolitical tensions. Over the past two weeks, oil prices have once more started to pick up steam, supported by trend of shrinking inventory. Despite the price buoyancy,...

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Some industries are notoriously cyclical. Semiconductor is a prime example. It swings to the extreme on both bullish and bearish sides. While the industry is in a bull run, investors can still participate in its rise but with caution. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (“SOX”) is a modified market-cap weighted index. It is composed of semiconductor firms involved in...

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Animal spirits are palpable in the Land of Rising Sun. Nikkei-225 smashed through it previous all-time-high set more than 40 years ago. Japanese equity markets have turned steaming hot over the past year after stagnation through lost decades. Strong foreign investment inflows, positive impact from the corporate governance reforms, portfolio rebalancing away...

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Bitcoin is surging through expectations defying rally. Bitcoin (“BTC”) stands 22% higher over the last seven days. At its highest on 28 Feb 2024, BTC at USD 64k was 7% shy of its all-time-high. Recent bitcoin (“BTC”) performance harkens back to the euphoric bull runs. Market metrics signal more steam in store. This note discusses BTC’s recent rally and the...

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Bitcoin (“BTC”) – the millennial gold - continues to outshine traditional gold. BTC prices have climbed higher after the listing of spot ETFs. A wider bull rally in the cryptocurrency markets is also underway. ETH touched its highest level since 2022. The total cryptocurrency market cap is 14% higher YTD. A diverging outlook between BTC and Gold is emerging....

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Markets are notorious for exaggerated expectations. They sense a tiger when all they see is a cat. Expectations on rate cuts have been no different. Despite the Fed’s speak on measured changes to policy rates, markets got ahead of themselves since late last year. Markets are now starting to align their expectations with reality. US economic data from January...

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Bitcoin is known as digital gold. It is treasured as an investment asset. Much like the famous yellow metal, bitcoin (“BTC”) does not offer income through dividends or interest. This poses a challenge for investors seeking regular cashflows and income. One strategy that skilled investors use to turn BTC into an income generating asset is the cash and carry trade...

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Gold is the favoured precious metal. Its demand reflects consumer consumption of jewellery, investment demand, and monetary policy conditions. In a previous paper , Mint Finance highlighted these factors in detail. Platinum is also a precious metal, used to create jewellery and to a small extent as a form of investment. Crucially, unlike gold (6% industrial...

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Crude Oil price have remained sharply range bound for the last two months. CME Group’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have traded between USD 70-80 a barrel since early November last year. Sharply shifting supply and demand outlook explains range bound trading in crude oil. In this paper, we discuss diverging factors affecting crude oil price and...

mintdotfinance

The Japanese Yen is one of the worst performing currencies in 2024. It has weakened 5.4% against the USD. Forces have been stacked against Yen ever since the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates at a record pace. In sharp contrast, ultra loose monetary stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resulted in wide policy rate differential of 5% between...

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Gold prices in 2023 defied expectations. In 2023, economic uncertainty was in plenty with rapidly rising inflation. There was market consensus that recession would benefit gold. Gold indeed delivered stellar performance rising 12% through 2023. It was not because of a recession though. Most major economies successfully dodged a recession. Inflation trended...