JohnBaron

JohnBaron Updated 

For education and information a technical analysis using waves, fibs and volume profiles showing both a bullish and bearish potential path for SPY. Those that follow me trading know that I day trade using points of control and not predictions or forecasts. This is entertainment for me and not intended as trading or investment advice. A little bit about this set...

JohnBaron

There is a very strong bullish and bearish case for SPY/SPX. This is only an examination of a bearish alternative. I will be looking at these three elements Anchored VWAP (aVWAP) Supply/Demand indicator, a custom indicator which keys off motive waves and volume. This is a personal indicator only (please don't request). Wolfe Wave chart pattern Let's...

JohnBaron

One of many scenarios - this one was fun to put together which makes everyone right - the bulls and the bears. Rising diagonal. Enjoy.

JohnBaron Updated 

Using an irregular converging triangle. There are a number of bearish scenarios where it results in oil breaking below the triangle. This is different in how the triangle is drawn. Case: - E slightly penetrated the A-C trend line - The triangle is complete in this scenario - Wave 1 of C is complete and Wave 2 is underway at the time of publish.

JohnBaron

This visualizes current price vs one year prior. It visualizes Managed Money long and short positions, current to last year. And Producer/Consumer of oil, current to last year.

JohnBaron Updated 

working through wave C down - then bullish run

JohnBaron Updated 

A little messy chart - my working chart so I apologize in advance for the indicators and lines. In short w4 for C of B for EW fans is in play which should end arond 271x w5 should carry SP to 278x range completing the harmonic, it's possible to extend higher but lower probability. Then Wave C begins down, with two possible targets if it works out to be flat.

JohnBaron Updated 

A potential view of oil. Short term bearish post OPEC meeting, long term bullish

JohnBaron

Simple analysis of OI including options, including last year values for seasonal comparisons. First group of indicators are producers and consumers. Second group is managed money. Red is Short, Green is long and yellow is net.

JohnBaron Updated 

A few possible paths for WTI. Overall Harvey is bullish for oil - higher consumption of product from stores - refiners world wide increasing production/consumption of crude to fill the product gap and take advantage of the RBOB spreads - curtailed crude production in the GOM and shale - spread between Brent/WTI driving higher exports of WTI to Asia The...

JohnBaron Updated 

Updated the count - updated the trend

JohnBaron Updated 

Short term idea, nice cup/handle forming, needs a 50% retrace to validate, and an overlay of last years price, same time period for reference. Expect near term short oppty, and then perhaps a prolonged decline for the season, or a snap back up to $52 then a decline. ... but here is the chart anyway. the normal caveats for oil follow... geopolitical risks, major...

JohnBaron Updated 

Entering holiday weekend and hurricane after effects, we should see a few weeks of significant draw downs in inventory.

JohnBaron

RSI is at peak,expect some stability until early first week of April, then a drop to 49.3x, more wedging until break out and up around the 11th. Always the risk of extended wave 3. Timing is always dodgy with news and events Also MM continued reducing their long positions. Recent increase in price I believe was largely driven by quarter end closing of short...

JohnBaron

I think it describes it's self. But i need to type in some words so it will publish. The rains in Spain fall mainly on the plains.

JohnBaron

Begin with the caveat all traders understand, every pattern requires confirmation along the way. So this will be a discussion of patterns and confirmations. I tend to trade daily, so i am neither long nor short. Pattern 1: Macro wolf wave, $65 by mid January. Channel 1 (Yellow): bull channel from November 2016 Channel 2 (Blue) : bear channel from December...

JohnBaron Updated 

Long term view of WTI. Bukowski Patterns. Break out would suggest a complete reversal.

JohnBaron

This is one view - seems to line up with seasonality fundamentals and quarter close. With oil it's always uncertain what may happen with geopolitics and supply disruptions. Holding those aside, which is difficult, a seasonal demand pattern does exist with this commodity. Annual fib pivots are shown. Red lines show highs and lows.