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Microsoft (MSFT) appears to have completed a textbook Elliott extended five wave pattern. If so, the next bear phase could ultimately take the stock down to the bottom made in October 2022. CCI has a bearish divergence with RSI deep in the overbought zone. This is frequently a signal for a potentially large decline. The first support is in the 310 to 325 area.

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On 02/09/66 the DJI made a major top at 1000.00. One month later it was down 9% by October 1966 the DJI fell by more than 26%. Tomorrow is 02/09/24 the 58 – year anniversary of this historic peak. Today the SPX hit 5000.00. It’s possible another major top at round number resistance could start on an important anniversary.

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Typically, when the SPX makes a significant top it occurs with a rising VIX. This happened at the SPX early 2022 top. The VIX made a primary bottom more than a month before the SPX ultimate top. When the SPX made its final high on 01/04/22, the VIX made a higher bottom. This is a subtle sign of increased bearish sentiment. The VIX rises when there’s...

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Since October 2023 the Nasdaq 100 (NDQ) has been much more bullish than the S&P 500 (SPX). NDQ rallied 25.7% while the SPX rallied 19.5%. On 01/26/24 something different happened, the SPX made a new high unconfirmed by NDQ. Also note the daily RSI for SPX has a significant bearish divergence and is in the over bought zone! A decline in the SPX down to at...

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The S&P 500 (SPX) appears to be near completion of an Elliott wave impulse pattern from the 01/17/24 bottom. RSI and MACD have developed bearish divergences. (SPX) could make a peak early in the 01/24/24 trading session.

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Tesla recent underperformance to the S&P 500 is similar to what happened at it peak in late July 2023. This relative weakness is probably a very bearish signal for Tesla and could also have bearish implications for the S&P 500. Mark

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BTCUSD has retraced a Fibonacci .618 of the November 2021 to November 2022 bear market. Weekly CCI has a double bearish divergence. Weekly RSI has a bearish divergence in the overbought zone. If the high made on 01/11/24 holds, a multi-month decline to at least the November 2022 bottom could be underway.

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At the SPX 12/28/23 high both CCI and RSI had bearish divergence after traveling into the overbought zone. Wave “1” is equal in time to wave “5” and both waves are nearly equal in growth rate. Also, sometimes markets can turn plus or minus two trading days from a full/new moon. There was a full moon on 12/27/23. This is a tremendous amount of evidence that...

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My 12/19/23 post noted the SPX could make a significate peak in the first 15 – minutes of trading on 12/20/23 with a bullseye top target at 4874. The peak occurred mid – day at 4878. There’s a high probability a decline lasting several days, or a few weeks may have begun on 12/20/23. If the decline continues future posts will examine price and time targets for a...

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This is a bear alert! This is a bear alert! Since the 10/27/23 bottom the SPX has been on a relentless rally. There’s a good chance the SPX could make an intermediate top early in the SPX session on 12/20/23. Daily RSI is deep in the overbought zone with a declining CCI – a strong signal of a possible drop lasting perhaps one or two weeks. Intra day Elliott...

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average could be nearing the peak of an Elliott Wave - Expanding Flat - top. In this case Primary wave "B" A major top could happen in just a few weeks. If so the next decline could last for several months.

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My prior post illustrated how using CCI with RSI can signal market turns. Currently the Germany 30 has a CCI bearish divergence with a very overbought RSI reading. A down turn in this index could be happening soon!

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There are no perfect market indicators. However, traders can increase the chances of success by using two indicators in conjunction. For the S&P 500 (SPX) combining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) could be helpful in discovering turns. Momentum divergences frequently hint of a potential trend reversal. The RSI is one...

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On 12/08/23 the VIX made a new low in its decline from the high in early 2022. The vast majority of the time the SPX will make its ultimate top with a VIX at a higher bottom. Please note what happened in early 2022. This is just one example of several VIX bottoming divergences over a period of many years. The VIX is very effective at catching important SPX...

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There are two potential time cycles due soon. The first is a Full Moon on 11/27/23. Sometime markets can turn on new/full moons – plus or minus two trading days. The second is a Fibonacci time cycle. The S&P 500 - 07/27/23 to 10/27/23 decline lasted 65 trading days (td) multiplied by the Fibonacci .382 ratio yields 25 td, added to 10/27/23 targets...

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Currently only one of the eleven SPDR Sector funds is making a new all-time high. That’s the Technology sector (XLK). This is a huge bearish divergence! From XLK’s October 2022 bottom it has formed an extended Elliott Impulse pattern. The manic rally since its 10/26/23 bottom appears to be the final phase – Intermediate wave (5). XLK could soon reach an...

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The buying panic that began on 10/27/23 could soon be at a termination point. The drop from 07/27/23 to 10/27/23 counts best as an Elliott wave Leading Diagonal Triangle. The wave count is valid if the SPX can remain below its 07/27/23 high at 4,607.07. MACD is overbought and RSI is nearly overbought. In panic spikes its common for momentum oscillators to...

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On 11/08/23 Crude Oil Continuous contract chart (CL2!) hit the Fibonacci .618 retracemt level at 74.92. A break below this level could open the door for a move down to the 68.00 area. Daily RSI had only a minor bullish divergence on 11/08/23 and has yet to reach the oversold zone which begins at 30%.