markrivest

markrivest

My prior SPX post noted a bullish trend may have begun. The SPX rallied into a gap area then on 10/12/23 sharply dropped lower. Its possible an Elliott wave series of "one's" and "two's" down from the SPX 7/27/23 top. This is a very bearish formation and could develop into a mini crash back to the October 2022 bottom. Watch the SPX - 200 - day moving...

markrivest

My 10/07/23 Crude Oil post noted that after a 13% drop it could be due for a bounce. As of 10/13/23 it appears the bounce could be complete. Crude Oil has retraced a Fibonacci .50 of its 13% drop, and has taken the form of an Elliott wave Single Zigzag pattern. Also, Minor wave “A” is close to equal Minor wave “C”. The most common Fibonacci relationship in a...

markrivest

When two of the three main U.S. stock indices; SPX, DJI, and IXIC do not confirm a new high/low it could signal a trend change. A bearish signal happened on 08/01/23 when the DJI was the only main U.S. stock index to make a new 2023. On 10/06/23 the DJI was the only Index to make a new post 08/01/23 decline low. October is seasonally a bearish month, however...

markrivest

My prior Crude Oil post noted that an important top may have been made at the 09/28/23 top. In 7 – trading days Crude Oil declined 13% Stochastics indicates it could soon bounce. Longer – term there’s potential for much more decline. Crude Oils seasonal patterns are bearish into December.

markrivest

A very important Crude Oil top may have been made on 09/28/23. These are the factors. 1) Completed Elliott wave - Inverse Expanding Flat. 2) Bearish divergences on RSI and MACD. 3) Peak on 09/28/23 hit rising trendline. 4) Top one day before Full Moon on 09/29/23. 5) Bearish seasonal patterns until late December There’s potential for Crude Oil to drop to the low...

markrivest

NVDA is nearing important support at the double bottom formed by 401.00 low made on 06/26/23 and the low of 403.11 made on 08/14/23. RSI has still not reached the oversold zone – below 30%. MACD is showing no bullish divergence. A break below the double bottom could trigger a crash down to the next support level in the low 300 area.

markrivest

For the first time since late 2021 Monthly SPX - Stochastic has a bearish line cross in the overbought zone. This could be signaling the start of a multi - week decline. Watch the rising trendline connecting the October 2022 and March 2023 bottoms. A move below this line could confirm a large down wave.

markrivest

The SPX since it’s 07/27/23 top appears to have formed an Elliott wave series of “one’s” and “two’s” down. This is the most dynamic Elliott wave configuration and in this case implies a potential sharp and deep decline. The U.S. FOMC decision on short -term interest rates is 9/20/23. This could be the trigger event for a sharp decline in U.S. stocks.

markrivest

The SPX weekly KST oscillator has a bearish lines cross. This indicator has lagging line cross signals. Note the prior effective signals. If the current signal is effective it implies the SPX could decline for several weeks.

markrivest

The Elliott wave count for U.S. 30 year yields/rates (TYX) indcate a potential sharp rise. The most likely TYX Elliott wave count has it forming a third of a third wave up. This is the most dynamic Elliott wave pattern. In this case it implies TYX could reach the 5.00 area in a few weeks. If this were to occur it could have bearish implications for U.S. stocks.

markrivest

Nvidia continues to have a bearish Elliott wave count. After the Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle top there was a clear five waves down. The rally into 08/30/23 failed to exceed the 08/24/23 top. The rally on 09/01/23 failed to exceed the 08/30/23 peak. Also, on 09/01/23 both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite made post 08/18/23 rally highs, NVDA did...

markrivest

Apple Inc. (AAPL) has a very clear Elliott - five waves down from 07/19/23 to 08/18/23. AAPL now appears to be in a three - wave correctiive pattern which could top out this week. If so this could signal an important counter trend peak for U.S. stocks. Watch Apple Inc.

markrivest

Since the 07/31/23 peak SOX has declined in an Elliott Impulse pattern followed by a three wave corrective pattern which is so far a Single Zigzag. In the short-term its possible the rally could continue to the .618 retracement of the 07/31/23 to 08/18/23 decline. If this were to occur it would be a Double Zigzag correction. After completion of the Zigzag or...

markrivest

Nvida has moved above its 07/14/23 top and has invalided the Elliott wave count illustrated in my prior NVDA post. The rally into a new high has taken the form of an Elliott wave - Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT). This is a termination pattern of of the main trend. Frequently EDT's have a throwover of the trendline connecting the termination points of waves "one"...

markrivest

The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) was the first of the three main U.S. stock indices to top out in July 2023. Momentum indicators are signaling more potential downside action. Weekly Stochastitc has a bearish lines cross and the lower line has only reached 50%. RSI has moved below its weekly moving average line. MACD has a bearish lines cross. IXIC could break...

markrivest

The SPX has broken below a multi month rising trendline. Daily RSI is at 34% is still not in the oversold zone. These factors imply lower SPX prices.

markrivest

The amazing NVDA 350% gain from October 2022 to July 2023 appears to be a blow off top. Normally RSI will have at least one bearish divergence at significant tops. Weekly RSI hit its maximum at the July 2023 price top. This type of action occurs in blow off tops in commodities and in individual stocks. Other bearish factors 1) Elliott Impulse wave up...

markrivest

The SPX has completed an extended Elliott Impuse wave at the 08/09/23 bottom. The subsequent action after 08/09/23 appears to be a developing Expanding Flat. If so it could be complete in one or two trading days. The presumed Minor wave "1" could be the first wave of a developing bear phase into October 2023. Significant bottom could be made in the area of...