BTCUSD - 200 Weekly SMA to the rescue (again)? 🤔

What's up traders, gamblers, hodlers?

Been a while since I last posted an analysis and this was mostly because I've been in denial that we were in a bear market. Bias is a b#...

There is hope though... You see, in the 2 previous bear markets about halfway between halvings, bitcoin has found its bottom on the 200 weekly SMA which acted as support. So maybe, just maybe this might happen again?

I know that past performance is no guarantee for the future, but hey, if it happened twice, it could happen again, right?

Additionally, the time that has elapsed since the previous halving is about the same as the previous times this happened, which might increase the chances that we'll see bitcoin slowly turn around and start running up towards the next halving.

⚠️BUT .... the financial markets are very shaky, supply shocks, inflation, conflicts ... for a lot of traders and investors this is a RISK-OFF period, so don't expect a sudden turnaround, and keep in mind that just because it happened twice before, it does not necessarily have to happen again.

How am I dealing with this situation?
You probably know that I'm a strong proponent of HODLing and DCAing. I'm an investor, not a trader. So I've not sold a single satoshi, and I plan on starting to put some buy orders in to DCA considering that the potential upside from here is so much larger than the potential downside ... But this is my money, my decision, and definitely not advice for any of you.

So what do you think? ... Will the weekly 200 SMA be the bitcoin SuperHero again and come to the rescue?
Share your thoughts in the comments, and if you made it this far reading, you might as well click that thumbs-up button. ;)

Have a great day, and whatever you do, don't invest more than you can afford to lose.
✌🏽

Comment:

Here's a snapshot of the daily chart on 14th June where we can see how price reacted to the 200 weekly SMA.

Comment:

Someone mentioned to me that a recession is coming and that bitcoin has never gone through a recession and he is right. But since it has never gone through a recession, we don't know how it's going to react ...
Could it go further down? Absolutely ...
My actions are based on probabilities and potential upside vs downside, your risk profile and tolerance might be different so you'll have to evaluate for yourself. 😉

Comment:

We broke below the 200 weekly MA and are still under it at this moment.
But that is irrelevant because we only consider the close of the candle.
So let's see where we are at the end of this month to check whether the 200 weekly MA is providing support again.
Patience and diamond hands ;)

Comment:

We are still in the same support zone, slightly under the 200 weekly SMA. It does seem that the previous high (2017) is providing support now. Mind you, I'm watching the weekly and monthly charts, nothing below that. Bitcoin for me is a long-term investment, and I see this as an excellent level to invest more (nfa).