There's been a lot of speculation about Bitcoin potentially dropping below 15k again, especially after the events of the last two weeks. As a response, I've conducted an analysis of the larger time frames (1Y, 6M, 3M, 1M) to confirm my perspective detailed in "BTC after $40K: Uptrend or WXY Pattern?"
After this analysis, I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see Bitcoin rise to 50k before experiencing another significant drop. Of course, multiple corrections will occur along the way, but these should be viewed as prime opportunities to accumulate more coins before reaching the peak.
The focus of this analysis is the 1M time frame, with other frames discussed separately in the comments. As you can see in the chart, after the massive bullish trend from $2 to $69,000, we began a significant correction. The first move was a five impulse wave, which ended around 15K, suggesting we're in a zigzag correction (5-3-5 pattern).
Wave A has completed, and we're currently in Wave B, which typically ends between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels in a perfect zigzag correction. However, larger time frames suggest that we might see a longer Wave B, potentially reaching the 0.786 level or even higher.
The movement from the beginning of 2023 until now hasn't yet reached the 0.382 Fibonacci level, suggesting that we're still in the smaller Wave (a) of the larger Wave B in our zigzag correction.
In a perfect zigzag correction, Wave C will match Wave A in size, but it can also be 0.618 of the size (it can extend to 1.618, but this doesn't seem likely in our chart). The chart presents possible scenarios (impulse waves in purple), all depending on the rules outlined above.
We can confirm which scenario is most likely after Wave (a) of our larger Wave B ends. I believe the May candle will close green, allowing us to continue the first leg of the larger wave B in June. (check "BTC Sideways Correction until end of May")
The 58K mark frequently appears in larger frames, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci level in our monthly chart. Thus, my favorite scenario posits that the current Wave B will end between 55K and 63K. After that, we could potentially enter a bearish trend down to 10K.
However, I find it improbable that we'll see numbers like 5K, 4K, 3K, or 2K. In my view, if such a scenario were possible, it would be time to exit the crypto market. After all, if Bitcoin drops to 4K, what prices can we expect for other cryptocurrencies?!!
Note:
Keep in mind that this analysis is based on personal perspective and should not be considered as financial advice.
After this analysis, I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see Bitcoin rise to 50k before experiencing another significant drop. Of course, multiple corrections will occur along the way, but these should be viewed as prime opportunities to accumulate more coins before reaching the peak.
The focus of this analysis is the 1M time frame, with other frames discussed separately in the comments. As you can see in the chart, after the massive bullish trend from $2 to $69,000, we began a significant correction. The first move was a five impulse wave, which ended around 15K, suggesting we're in a zigzag correction (5-3-5 pattern).
Wave A has completed, and we're currently in Wave B, which typically ends between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels in a perfect zigzag correction. However, larger time frames suggest that we might see a longer Wave B, potentially reaching the 0.786 level or even higher.
The movement from the beginning of 2023 until now hasn't yet reached the 0.382 Fibonacci level, suggesting that we're still in the smaller Wave (a) of the larger Wave B in our zigzag correction.
In a perfect zigzag correction, Wave C will match Wave A in size, but it can also be 0.618 of the size (it can extend to 1.618, but this doesn't seem likely in our chart). The chart presents possible scenarios (impulse waves in purple), all depending on the rules outlined above.
We can confirm which scenario is most likely after Wave (a) of our larger Wave B ends. I believe the May candle will close green, allowing us to continue the first leg of the larger wave B in June. (check "BTC Sideways Correction until end of May")
The 58K mark frequently appears in larger frames, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci level in our monthly chart. Thus, my favorite scenario posits that the current Wave B will end between 55K and 63K. After that, we could potentially enter a bearish trend down to 10K.
However, I find it improbable that we'll see numbers like 5K, 4K, 3K, or 2K. In my view, if such a scenario were possible, it would be time to exit the crypto market. After all, if Bitcoin drops to 4K, what prices can we expect for other cryptocurrencies?!!
Note:
Keep in mind that this analysis is based on personal perspective and should not be considered as financial advice.
Comment:
6M Analysis:
In the 6-month time frame, we observe a similar pattern. We have completed four waves and are now anticipating the fifth wave, which, like in the 1Y frame, may not rise above the peak of the third wave.
In the 6-month time frame, we observe a similar pattern. We have completed four waves and are now anticipating the fifth wave, which, like in the 1Y frame, may not rise above the peak of the third wave.
Comment:
3M Analysis:
In the 3-month time frame, we have completed the five impulse bullish wave and begun the corrective waves. Wave A has ended in the form of a simple wave, suggesting we are in a Regular Flat (3-3-5) correction.
If the crypto market holds steady after the completion of wave C and its five impulse bearish wave, we will need a significant wave B. This wave B should end at the same level as wave 5 observed in the 1Y and 6M frames.
In the 3-month time frame, we have completed the five impulse bullish wave and begun the corrective waves. Wave A has ended in the form of a simple wave, suggesting we are in a Regular Flat (3-3-5) correction.
If the crypto market holds steady after the completion of wave C and its five impulse bearish wave, we will need a significant wave B. This wave B should end at the same level as wave 5 observed in the 1Y and 6M frames.
Comment:
we are almost there
Comment:
Note: I do not expect a drop to a new low after reaching the targets, but rather a deep correction before continuing the rise. The analysis was only to prove that if the theory of falling to a new low is correct, it will not happen before reaching these targets.
Trade closed: target reached
As observed in the 1Y frame, we've completed four waves and are now awaiting the fifth wave.Notably, this wave may not rise above the peak of the third wave.