Bitcoin is in a tricky place right now. The fear and greed index has cooled off massively and now sits at a neutral score of 55. General sentiment is very poor and after nearly 2 months of sideways action traders/investors are getting restless especially after the promise of price rally post-halving, but is there any positive news?
The chart is pretty clear, HTF is bullish, still above the 1D 200EMA but LTF is bearish. BTC has clearly broken its uptrend and is now in a bearish trend channel, although there has been a breakout attempt, for now it seems to be a fakeout. For me this leaves 2 scenarios;
- Trigger 1 is a breakout trade where confirmation is needed to avoid another fakeout, this includes making a higher high after a new lower high and therefor confirming a new bullish structure after breaking out of the bearish channel.
- Trigger 2 is more of a bearish scenario but one I believe would be better in the long run. There is a large inefficiency area between 52K-56.5K, price seeks to fill these fair value gaps and as long as that area is left unfilled it will always attract price to it, now this could be filled at anytime in BTC's lifespan but it would make the most sense to do it now rather than after price has another huge rally as the risk of a complete capitulation move down to fill this area would grow. Another reason I believe it makes the most sense is that the 1D 200 EMA is at the bullish OB+ level, in a Bullrun this level is a great point to enter longs as it provides strong support. Adding all these layers of confluence suggests this bullish OB+ area should it provide a positive reaction, would be a good area to enter longs which also would mean the altcoin market would also see a positive move as it is currently massively oversold and would bring traders to be more risk on.
The halving so far has not brought the desired bullish narrative that a lot of people expected but it would never going to be a reason for Bitcoins price to suddenly move up, it's one that will gradually have an impact as the supply shock has a lasting effect on miners and institutional investors.
Patience is key in this game, I believe that this quarter will remain a choppy frustrating one as BTC cools off after a year long rally and gets ready for the next leg up. Making sure that the portfolio is a strong as it can be for the next leg of the Bullrun is key and capital preservation is number 1. Trading because of boredom can be very costly. Stick to your plan as best you can to avoid any mistakes.
The chart is pretty clear, HTF is bullish, still above the 1D 200EMA but LTF is bearish. BTC has clearly broken its uptrend and is now in a bearish trend channel, although there has been a breakout attempt, for now it seems to be a fakeout. For me this leaves 2 scenarios;
- Trigger 1 is a breakout trade where confirmation is needed to avoid another fakeout, this includes making a higher high after a new lower high and therefor confirming a new bullish structure after breaking out of the bearish channel.
- Trigger 2 is more of a bearish scenario but one I believe would be better in the long run. There is a large inefficiency area between 52K-56.5K, price seeks to fill these fair value gaps and as long as that area is left unfilled it will always attract price to it, now this could be filled at anytime in BTC's lifespan but it would make the most sense to do it now rather than after price has another huge rally as the risk of a complete capitulation move down to fill this area would grow. Another reason I believe it makes the most sense is that the 1D 200 EMA is at the bullish OB+ level, in a Bullrun this level is a great point to enter longs as it provides strong support. Adding all these layers of confluence suggests this bullish OB+ area should it provide a positive reaction, would be a good area to enter longs which also would mean the altcoin market would also see a positive move as it is currently massively oversold and would bring traders to be more risk on.
The halving so far has not brought the desired bullish narrative that a lot of people expected but it would never going to be a reason for Bitcoins price to suddenly move up, it's one that will gradually have an impact as the supply shock has a lasting effect on miners and institutional investors.
Patience is key in this game, I believe that this quarter will remain a choppy frustrating one as BTC cools off after a year long rally and gets ready for the next leg up. Making sure that the portfolio is a strong as it can be for the next leg of the Bullrun is key and capital preservation is number 1. Trading because of boredom can be very costly. Stick to your plan as best you can to avoid any mistakes.
Comment:
Back above the bearish channel after the breakout retest. Bullish momentum must now continue towards "Trigger 1" should it remain bullish.
Comment:
We've now broken above the trigger 1 point, looking to see acceptance at this level before targeting '21previous ATH @ 69K
Comment:
currently retesting the Trigger 1 point as new support for the final go ahead to LONG, needs to close above strong