DXY (15min) - softer start into week of us inflationsrates
DXY - 48 hrs.
The start of the DXY into 2024 was overshadowed by the last public FED meeting - after the FED publicly admitted for the first time that it was thinking about interest rate cuts. Since then, traders and/or investors in Chicago have been speculating on up to 7 interest rate cuts for the current year of 2024. There were 5-6 in today's daily trading, if I'm not mistaken. Personally, I wouldn't go that far. But it shows the direction of travel or rather what is currently occupying the financial market - moving it. Which is why the start of the year on the US stock markets is now starting to get exciting. And today is the fifth trading day of the year, which will determine what the 5 trading day rule, which is closely followed by Wall Street, will turn out. The first five trading days of a year are often considered an indicator for the year as a whole - this is particularly true in years with an us presidential election: in 83% of cases, the trend of the first five trading days in such years is also the trend of the year as a whole. And because most of the players on WallStreet are extremely dependent on statistics for their projects - admittedly, my humble person did too also at times - this rule can also develop into a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. As has been noticed so often! Isn`t it?
3 articles from today worth reading
2023/01/08 REUTERS Morning Bid
Mike Dolan: "New year market funk sees 5-day blues"
2023/01/08 BUSINESS INSIDER Economy
Jennifer Sor: "Inflation could see a resurgence, and investors expecting a 'perfect outcome' for the economy this year may be disappointed, BlackRock says"
2023/01/08 CNBC NEWS Live Updates
Pia Singh & Sarah Min: "Nasdaq Composite closes 2% higher Monday as tech stocks’ revival lifts major averages"
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
In contrast to the first four days of trading on Wall Street, the NASDAQ rose sharply again today - i.e. BigTec. The Nasdaq rally was driven today in an environment of weak news - particularly from Nvidia, but Apple also pulled the tech sector higher again. The Dow Jones, on the other hand, was significantly weaker after the weak Boeing shares cost the index almost 150 points. The stock market started this week with a bang; the highlight and another trend accelerator of today's rally is likely to be the US inflation rates on Thursday, as was the case with the DXY. Meanwhile, the Gaza war threatens to escalate into a protracted war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon after Hezbollah leader Nasrallah's brother-in-law was killed today.
The DXY weakened in line with a rising Nasdaq. A correlation that should generally continue in 2024 - if we assume at least 3 interest rate cuts for 2024. And that's what I'm assuming today - 3 interest rate cuts (as the FED also publicly stated in their plots). 102,620 points was the daily high - and I am now assuming that that was also the high for this week. Because US inflation is unlikely to be so high that it should trigger a bullish impulse for the DXY. Rather the opposite. Which is why we can expect a movement towards 101,908 points in the next 48 hours. Before the US inflation rate is announced on Thursday.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
My DXY commentary is always available daily from Sunday to Thursday - usually during trading hours on Wall Street. Except on public holidays - like last time! Because some people asked me. Thank you for any public or private feedback! And hopefully after reading you will always know more than before - that is the purpose of my daily DXY comment...
The start of the DXY into 2024 was overshadowed by the last public FED meeting - after the FED publicly admitted for the first time that it was thinking about interest rate cuts. Since then, traders and/or investors in Chicago have been speculating on up to 7 interest rate cuts for the current year of 2024. There were 5-6 in today's daily trading, if I'm not mistaken. Personally, I wouldn't go that far. But it shows the direction of travel or rather what is currently occupying the financial market - moving it. Which is why the start of the year on the US stock markets is now starting to get exciting. And today is the fifth trading day of the year, which will determine what the 5 trading day rule, which is closely followed by Wall Street, will turn out. The first five trading days of a year are often considered an indicator for the year as a whole - this is particularly true in years with an us presidential election: in 83% of cases, the trend of the first five trading days in such years is also the trend of the year as a whole. And because most of the players on WallStreet are extremely dependent on statistics for their projects - admittedly, my humble person did too also at times - this rule can also develop into a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. As has been noticed so often! Isn`t it?
3 articles from today worth reading
2023/01/08 REUTERS Morning Bid
Mike Dolan: "New year market funk sees 5-day blues"
2023/01/08 BUSINESS INSIDER Economy
Jennifer Sor: "Inflation could see a resurgence, and investors expecting a 'perfect outcome' for the economy this year may be disappointed, BlackRock says"
2023/01/08 CNBC NEWS Live Updates
Pia Singh & Sarah Min: "Nasdaq Composite closes 2% higher Monday as tech stocks’ revival lifts major averages"
DXY - Another 48 hrs.
In contrast to the first four days of trading on Wall Street, the NASDAQ rose sharply again today - i.e. BigTec. The Nasdaq rally was driven today in an environment of weak news - particularly from Nvidia, but Apple also pulled the tech sector higher again. The Dow Jones, on the other hand, was significantly weaker after the weak Boeing shares cost the index almost 150 points. The stock market started this week with a bang; the highlight and another trend accelerator of today's rally is likely to be the US inflation rates on Thursday, as was the case with the DXY. Meanwhile, the Gaza war threatens to escalate into a protracted war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon after Hezbollah leader Nasrallah's brother-in-law was killed today.
The DXY weakened in line with a rising Nasdaq. A correlation that should generally continue in 2024 - if we assume at least 3 interest rate cuts for 2024. And that's what I'm assuming today - 3 interest rate cuts (as the FED also publicly stated in their plots). 102,620 points was the daily high - and I am now assuming that that was also the high for this week. Because US inflation is unlikely to be so high that it should trigger a bullish impulse for the DXY. Rather the opposite. Which is why we can expect a movement towards 101,908 points in the next 48 hours. Before the US inflation rate is announced on Thursday.
may the price action be with you:
aaron
My DXY commentary is always available daily from Sunday to Thursday - usually during trading hours on Wall Street. Except on public holidays - like last time! Because some people asked me. Thank you for any public or private feedback! And hopefully after reading you will always know more than before - that is the purpose of my daily DXY comment...
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