Potential bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 103.82
1st Support: 103.44
1st Resistance: 104.57
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Dollar
Dollar index on the floor of the trading rangeAccording to the weekly chart of the dollar index and since tomorrow and next week we have important data such as unemployment claims, and also these data will probably strengthen the strength of the dollar, it is expected that the dollar index will rise to the middle of the trading range in the first step. .
DXY TRI MONTHLY CHART -- A LONG JOURNEY OF WEAKNESS.The chart should speak for itself.
DXY long term view (tri-monthly data) is conveying shifting trend on the dollar index -- to the downside.
Expect more long term correction, as this time frame don't change mind too often.
Spotted at 102.25
TAYOR.
safeguard capital always.
How does the dollar's strength endure amidst domestic turmoil?
A Resilient Currency
Despite a tumultuous political climate and growing social divisions, the U.S. dollar has shown remarkable strength, particularly in recent months. As measured by Bloomberg's Dollar Spot Index, the greenback has surged approximately 3.1% in October alone. This resilience is surprising, given the erosion of trust in American institutions and the increasing polarization of the country.
Why is the Dollar So Strong?
Several factors contribute to the dollar's enduring strength:
1. Safe-Haven Status: The U.S. dollar has long been considered a safe-haven asset. In times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical turmoil, investors often flock to the dollar as a reliable store of value. The current global landscape, marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, has solidified the dollar's status as a safe haven.
2. Interest Rate Differentials: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in influencing the dollar's value. By raising interest rates, the Fed makes it more attractive for investors to hold dollar-denominated assets. As a result, the demand for the dollar increases, leading to appreciation.
3. Global Economic Disparity: The U.S. economy, while facing its own challenges, remains relatively strong compared to many other major economies. This economic disparity can lead to capital inflows into the U.S., further boosting the dollar's value.
4. Global Currency Reserve: The U.S. dollar is widely used as a global reserve currency. Central banks around the world hold significant amounts of U.S. dollars, which helps to maintain demand for the currency.
The Disconnect Between Currency and Country
The dollar's strength can be seen as a paradox, given the growing political polarization and social unrest in the U.S. However, it is important to distinguish between the country's political and social climate and its economic fundamentals. While the former may impact investor sentiment in the long run, the latter has a more immediate impact on the currency.
As long as the U.S. economy remains relatively stable and the Federal Reserve continues to pursue sound monetary policies, the dollar is likely to maintain its strength. However, it is essential to monitor geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and domestic political developments that could potentially impact the dollar's value.
A Word of Caution
While the dollar's current strength is impressive, it is important to remember that market conditions can change rapidly. A sudden shift in investor sentiment, a change in Federal Reserve policy, or a significant geopolitical event could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
It is crucial for investors to stay informed about global economic and political developments and to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risk. By understanding the factors that influence the dollar's value and making informed investment decisions, individuals can navigate the complex and ever-changing global financial landscape.
King Dollar Reigns Supreme: DXY Strategic Outlook🔸Hello guys, today let's review D1 price chart for DXY. We are trading
inside well-defined multi year range, currently closing in on range highs.
🔸Every EURUSD trader need to study this chart and bookmark it in
order to time his entries/exits for EURUSD. Dollar still reigns supreme.
🔸Range lows defined at 100.00 , range highs set at 106.75.
This is the active trading range for DXY since early 2023 it's
well-defined and it's very unlikely that price will exit this range
any time soon so traders should focus on trading based on key s/r
levels on the DXY price chart.
🔸Key Zones: S 100.25 / 101.25 / 102.75 R 105.25 / 106.50
🔸Currently I'm expecting pullback from overhead resistance 105.25
is the critical level where we can expect pullback in DXY, so that's
when you want to also go LONG EURUSD, when DXY maxes out / enters
pullback stage of the cycle.
🔸Recommended strategy position traders: when DXY hits resistance
at 105.25, BUY/HOLD EURUSD, target is 200/300 pips on BUY side for EURUSD. Once the pullback in DXY is over/complete at 102.70, short EURUSD, final target on sell side for EURUSD is 1.0500. Good luck traders!
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A Bullish Turn: Investors Embrace the DollarA Shift in Sentiment
In a surprising turn of events, hedge funds, asset managers, and other speculators have shifted their stance on the US dollar, moving into bullish positions in the week ending October 22nd. This significant shift, totaling approximately $9.2 billion in long dollar bets, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) compiled by Bloomberg, marks a dramatic departure from the previous week's net short position.
A $10.6 Billion Swing
This abrupt change in sentiment represents a substantial $10.6 billion swing from the previous week, when traders were actively betting against the greenback. The reasons behind this bullish pivot are multifaceted, primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the US election approaches.
A Recalibration of Fed Expectations
A series of positive economic reports released throughout October has forced a recalibration of previously dovish Federal Reserve expectations. The robust economic indicators have raised the possibility of a more hawkish monetary policy stance from the Fed, which could potentially lead to higher interest rates. Historically, a stronger US dollar has been correlated with higher interest rates, making the greenback an attractive investment for global investors.
Election-Year Uncertainty
As the US presidential election draws near, geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility tend to increase. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The dollar's perceived status as a reliable store of value, combined with the potential for increased market volatility, has likely contributed to the recent surge in demand for the currency.
Implications for the Global Economy
The shift towards a bullish dollar position has significant implications for the global economy. A stronger dollar can negatively impact emerging market economies that rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt. Additionally, it can make US exports more expensive, potentially hindering economic growth. However, for countries with strong economic fundamentals and current account surpluses, a stronger dollar can be beneficial.
A Cautious Outlook
While the recent bullish trend in the dollar is notable, it is essential to maintain a cautious outlook. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, and a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, trade tensions, and central bank policies, could influence the dollar's trajectory. As such, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and rewards associated with dollar-based investments.
In conclusion, the recent shift towards a bullish dollar position reflects a significant change in market sentiment. A combination of stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets has driven investors to embrace the greenback. While the implications of this trend for the global economy are far-reaching, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
Is the Euro Looking for Support?It seems like the euro is on the hunt for some support. Could the bulls finally take charge and pull the euro out of its steep decline? The indicators are sending mixed signals. And when I say "indicators," I’m not talking about stochastics, moving averages, or that kind of stuff. I’m referring to the data from COT reports (show sentiment leaning towards a stronger dollar), analysis of options trades (not signaling a reversal), and retail sentiment (which is firmly bearish). And sure, we’ll throw in some chart analysis, but not just for the euro—I'm also looking at the 10-year Treasury yield chart.
What’s particularly important is how the quotes react at the 4.28% and 4.38% levels (marked as 1 and 2 on the chart). So, what do I mean by "how they react"? If the quotes hit resistance at these levels and turn south, the Dollar will likely correct, giving the euro bulls a breather. I highlighted the levels in the euro, the correction to which is very justified for finding liquidity.
But if the quotes 10Y Bonds start to "chop" through those levels, then the Dollar is headed higher and beyond.
DXY D1 - Short Signal DXY D1
Some large market gaps seen across US30 and US100, XAUUSD also gapping to the downside, trading as low as $2725/oz. DXY still remains below our area of resistance and supply, which trades at around 104.500 price. 105.000 would usually be a good technical psychological trading zone, that being said, there isn't much else on that price that would act as any real method of confluence for the moment.
Lets see what happens around this 104.500 price level, we have had a couple of days trading into that zone and a red engulfing candle close on that daily timeframe back on Thursday last week. Could we expect some dumps on DXY this week?
😱 COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR 2022 - 2045 - END OF EMPIREHello ladies and gentlemen! I bring to your attention my very global view of the US dollar solely from the point of view of technical analysis, namely the Elliot wave theory.
The graph shows the projection of the missing waves in the impulse of the supercycle - I-II-III-IV-V, the impulse is fully completed and ended back in 1985.
In my opinion, from the point of view of technical analysis and the Elliot wave theory itself, a zigzag has been forming globally on the US dollar index in the corrective phase since 1985, with a triangle in wave-(b). The ultimate goal of this zigzag is a collapse of the dollar index by minus -80% from ATH.
Ultimately, the Fed will lose in the fight against inflation, after the triangle is fully formed, a descending impulse five will begin in wave-(c) of the zigzag, I believe around 2030 plus or minus the triangle will be broken down, this will be a distress signal and confirmation I'm right, from now on, save your savings, because after the dollar index finds a bottom in the region of 20-30 points, for 100 dollars you can only buy a roll of toilet paper. BRENT oil will be $300-400 per barrel, and gold $5,000-6,000 a troy ounce, and that's even better. Naturally, after this collapse, the dollar will lose its status as the world's main reserve currency, the economy will stagnate amid hyperinflation, it will be many times worse than the Great Depression, and the markets will remember this apocalypse for a long time.
After the collapse of the US dollar, a new world order will be established, there will be a new leader and a new major world reserve currency. I believe this will end the approximately 250 year dollar cycle and the US Dollar Index will never again update its ATH.
❌ This trade idea should be reconsidered if DXY exceeds the 121 level, which is unlikely in my opinion. In this case, it will definitely not be a triangle.
This is my purely personal author's opinion, whether you share it with me or not is your own business, always think with your own head - I wish you good luck!
Dollar Index (DXY): Important Support & Resistance Levels
As the bull run continue on Dollar Index,
here are the significant resistance zones to pay attention to.
Resistance 1: 104.45 - 105.12 area
Resistance 2: 106.05 - 106.14 area
Resistance 3: 106.37 - 106.52 area
Support 1: 101.65 - 101.92 area
Support 2: 100.14 - 100.56 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Is EUR/USD oversold? Time to Buy?Is EUR/USD oversold? Time to Buy?
EUR/USD has been experiencing a robust downtrend on the 30-minute chart since 30 September. This bearish movement was triggered after the pair encountered a significant resistance area, forming a double top configuration on the daily chart.
From a 30-minute perspective, EUR/USD has remained on the same side of the 200-period moving average for 710 candles, indicating that the pair may be in an oversold condition and that the downtrend could be maturing. Statistically, most directional movements typically accumulate between 300 and 400 candles on one side of the 200-period moving average.
Shift from Seller to Buyer Interest:
Since the inception of the downtrend, this marks the first instance where EUR/USD has made an upward move that corresponds to the preceding downward move. This development signals a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish and could also be interpreted as a bullish engulfing pattern.
Currently, EUR/USD is situated in the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the 30-minute chart, which may serve as a support zone.
Key Levels to Monitor:
The main areas of interest for today are 1.0830 and 1.0850, which have the potential to support the price action. A buying opportunity could materialise if EUR/USD manages to break above 1.0855. Should this occur, it may lead to an upward movement towards the 1.0945 area later this week.
Conversely, an alternative scenario may unfold if EUR/USD breaks below 1.0820, which could prompt a decline towards the 1.0775 region within the week.
Treading Carefully Amidst Potential Changes
In summary, while EUR/USD is currently entrenched in a downtrend, emerging indicators and patterns suggest the possibility of a trend reversal. Traders should remain vigilant around the critical levels mentioned, as these will be pivotal in determining the pair's next movements.
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GBPUSD H8 - Long Signal 1.30 HANDLE GBPUSD H8
We broke slightly south of our 1.30 handle and psychological price late last week, that being said, it was fairly minor, merely just 30 points. We have now adjusted our entry price and SL positioning in the case this setup wants to attempt to break higher. We have an attractive area of support and demand, mixed with the previously mentioned confluences.
Not a great deal of data out today, so maybe it’s worth monitoring these trading zones and prices and waiting until the volume really starts to drive in. DXY approaching that 104.000 number, this is where we would expect rejections and therefore GBPUSD to climb higher, but in the interim, this may lead GPBUSD to trade south of 1.30 again in the short term. Let’s see what unfolds, but this is certainly on the watchlist this week.
DXY D1 - Short Signal DXY D1
Cleaning up our dollar index chart here, we have previously been following the price level of 103.000, then 103.300 and now we are looking at this 104.000 whole number. This would be an area of resistance we would yet again expect a rejection. Of course, we have exploded through both previous zones, after some consolidation.
Without trying to catch a falling knife, so to speak… There certainly should be a correction due on the dollar index in the near future. The bullish D1 candle run has been insane, I’d like to see a correction to around 102.000 after testing 104.000 territory.
Barriers in the interim sit at 103.300 support and 103.000 support respectively, simple resistance to support and support to resistance as we break and move beyond certain trading zones.