BYD - What next post-earnings and the BoC's stimulus?HKEX:1211 has had a strong year in growth prospects, reporting solid earnings growth thanks to its robust EV sales and expanding footprint in international markets. The recent earnings beat highlighted an impressive increase in revenue, driven by the demand for both their electric and hybrid vehicles. But what we can notice is that the stock has only reflected this as a c.16% rise in price YTD. However, the question now is: where does BYD go from here?
- More recently, the BoC's latest stimulus measures, including rate cuts and support for the real estate sector, could indirectly benefit BYD. With increased liquidity and consumer confidence, domestic demand for EV's could rise, especially if coupled with additional green energy incentives.
- As for the earnings release, the markets reacted well, and with this new-found optimism in the markets, with both the SEE Composite Index SSE:000001 and the Hang Seng Index TVC:HSI up 5.78% and 9.28% in the past 5 days, is this the turn-around for China as a whole?
BYD
HK50 gave back all of its gains over the past month
BYD and Li Auto dropped by 5.57% and 7.29%, respectively, exerting a decisive impact on the decline of HK50. Despite BYD's reporting of favorable 2Q earnings with a 26% increase in sales, the results fell below expectations. Meanwhile, Li Auto's 2Q performance was down 45% YoY, while sales increased by 10%. However, the 5.6% decline in electric vehicle deliveries in Aug compared to the previous month raised concerns about the Chinese EV market. With growing export tensions, the outlook for Chinese EV manufacturers will likely worsen in 2024, further amplifying the negative sentiment toward the index.
HK50 gave up all the two-week gains and closed at around 17150. The index still holds above the descending channel's upper bound but slid below both EMAs, sending apparent bearish signals. If HK50 fails to hold above both EMAs and breaks the 16700 support, the index may reenter the descending channel and fall further to the 15850 support. Conversely, if HK50 climbs above both EMAs and extends its uptrend to the short-term high at 18200, the index could gain upward momentum to the resistance at 18600.
75: BYD to Open Major Electric Vehicle Factory in TurkeyExciting times for BYD as the company announces a significant $1 billion investment to establish a major electric vehicle factory in Turkey. This strategic move is set to help BYD circumvent the recent EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars, creating 5,000 jobs and enhancing their production capabilities to 150,000 vehicles annually. This development not only strengthens BYD's foothold in the European market but also showcases their adaptability and long-term growth strategy.
The chart is currently indicating an uptrend, which began after the price successfully reclaimed the $54.80 level. This reclamation has set a strong foundation for the current upward momentum.
The price has also sustained above the high of $58.01, further solidifying this bullish trend. Holding above this level is crucial for the next phase of the uptrend.
The immediate target for BYD’s stock is the $64.91 price level. Reaching this level will confirm the strength of the current trend and open up possibilities for further gains.
Once the stock achieves the $64.91 mark, we can set our sights on the next significant target at $76.75. Breaking through this level could lead to even higher valuations, reflecting continued investor confidence and market strength. On the flip side, if the stock loses its grip on the $58.01 level, it could signal a reversal, with the next major support found around $43.48. Monitoring these levels is essential for adjusting trading strategies accordingly.
NIO ? Are traders ready to love it again LONGNIO on the daily is 95% below its ATH Winter of 2021 and 50% lower YTD. In China NIO is
competing well with XPEV, LI , BYD and TSLA while it makes further penetrative into the
EU market. Its unique concept in action is battery leasing and battery swapping making
charging time no longer relevant. Apparently, the battery swapping time from a depleted
battery to one carrying a charge is 15-20 minutes. Being a bottom-seeking bargain hunter quite
often, I will take a long trade here with a planned duration of two earnings periods.
Tesla among top 10 losers. Next what?Tesla is the 7th worst performer YTD in the Nasdaq-100. It is the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. The stock stands 28% lower.
Still, after reaching its lowest level on 22/April, the stock has rallied a remarkable 30%. On 24/April, the stock rallied 12% after the positive earnings call. On 29/April, the stock jumped another 15% after the announcement of the Baidu ( HKEX:9888 ) partnership.
Yet in the longer term, outlook remains cloudy as margin compression owing to fierce competition from Chinese EV makers and the wider EV industry slowdown.
MUSK'S CHINA VISIT LEADS TO BAIDU DEAL
Last Sunday, Elon Musk flew to China on a surprise visit. The last minute visit led to speculation over a push to launch full self driving (FSD) in China.
Persons close to the matter stated that Musk was expected to discuss the rollout of FSD software and permission to transfer data overseas, as reported in Reuters .
One of the key hold-ups for the rollout of FSD in China has been access to map data. Musk’s recent trip seems to have addressed that as Tesla announced a partnership with Baidu for map data access. While, Musk has long claimed that Teslas will be able to run FSD without map data, this will allow them to roll-out the offering much sooner and boost the slowing revenue in one of their leading markets in China.
FSD has been a recent revenue driver for Tesla. In 2024, Siena Capital analysts estimated that Tesla recognized almost USD 700 million in revenue, which represents 4.3% of their automotive revenue after stripping regulatory credits.
BYD PARTNERSHIP
Another strategic partnership that has helped boost investor sentiment at Tesla has been the strategic partnership with BYD ( HKEX:1211 ).
While both companies are major competitors, BYD recently overtook Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer in terms of overall vehicle sales (including hybrids). However, the fierce competition has also taken a toll on both companies as it has led to price cuts to win over more customers.
That’s why a technology-sharing partnership between the two companies is positive. While, they continue to compete, the partnership – specifically related to the use of BYD’s LFP battery technology in certain low-cost Tesla models – remains a positive for Tesla as it allows them to diversify their battery supply chain, reduce production costs, and enhance range for their lower-cost models.
LOW-COST MODELS COMING SOONER THAN EXPECTED
A recent hurdle for Tesla has been delay behind the upcoming low-cost Model 2 vehicle which plays a pivotal role in Tesla’s growth strategy. According to a Reuters report , Tesla had opted to cancel or indefinitely postpone plans for the upcoming Model 2. Instead, it would focus its attention on Robo-Taxis. The low-cost car represented the next phase of Musk’s long-term master plan to produce affordable electric vehicles through manufacturing process improvements.
Fears were that fierce competition in the low-cost category by Chinese manufacturers would make Tesla’s efforts unfeasible.
Yet, Elon Musk disputed the Reuters report and at the Q1 earnings investor call, it was verified. The Model 2 strategy is still on track. In fact, it may come sooner than expected at the end of 2024. Musk stated that Tesla was accelerating the launch of more affordable models that will be available to produce on its existing manufacturing lines.
Tesla aims to fully utilize its current production capacity towards these efforts and grow manufacturing 50% over 2023 before they start investing in new manufacturing lines.
Additionally, the robo-taxi push is also underway. Elon Musk stated that Tesla will launch its long-awaited robo-taxi product as soon as 8/August/2024. The autonomous driving robo-taxis will earn revenue for their owners. Moreover, owners will be able to add their Tesla's to the robo-taxi shared fleet with just one click on the Tesla app.
BEARISH CLOUDS PERSIST
Despite these recent developments, the outlook for Tesla remains undeniably cloudy. At its Q1 earnings, Tesla reported dismal results. But it’s not just Tesla which is struggling, it’s the wider EV industry.
EARNINGS SUMMARY
Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report released on 23/April revealed a challenging quarter marked by margin compression and a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales, influenced by strategic price cuts and broader economic factors.
Financially, Tesla reported a reduction in its automotive gross margin to 17.4%, down from previous quarter, reflecting the impact of significant price reductions across its model lineup intended to stimulate demand amid a softening global market.
These price adjustments, while successful in driving a short-term uptick in sales volumes, did not fully counterbalance the revenue per unit loss, leading to an overall revenue of $21.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, both figures below analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue and deliveries were the lowest since 2022.
One of the bright spots has been Tesla’s efforts to control costs. Not only did the company recently announce layoffs. It also stated that it would slow the growth of its Supercharger network to bring costs under control.
Moreover, investors were not as concerned about the concerning financials following the investor call where Musk re-affirmed Tesla’s long-term strategy while maintaining that Tesla would remain lean by producing the new lineup on existing manufacturing lines, assuaging fears of spiraling costs.
Critical to note that it is not just Tesla which struggled in Q1. BYD also reported that its profits fell 47% YoY. Vehicle sales also slowed QoQ. It is the wider industry that is experiencing a slowdown.
Unfortunately for Tesla, margin compression is more concerning for it compared to its Chinese competitors. Particularly as Chinese manufacturers are able to keep costs lower with help from government subsidies. Not only does the Chinese government offer direct subsidies to manufacturers, it also offers subsidies for EV buyers in China which has led to a boom in EV sales, which has benefited Chinese EV manufacturers.
Economic slowdown from high interest rates and a domestic slowdown in China may keep EV sales subdued for some time. In which case, Tesla would be forced to continue with its price cuts which would continue to pressure margins.
TESLA'S FINANCES STRAINED UNTIL AFFORDABLE MODEL LAUNCH
With recent positive news, Tesla stock has recovered sharply. Yet, it remains one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 YTD.
Bearish clouds persist for Tesla as margin compression continues due to competitive price cuts by Tesla. Amid an industry-wide sales slowdown, Tesla may be forced to continue with its strategy to offer price discounts on its cars, keeping its margins pressured. Moreover, Tesla continues to face pressure from low-cost Chinese EVs until it can launch its own low cost models.
While, Tesla’s new models are expected sooner than expected, they are still several quarters away. In the meantime, fundamental factors are likely to continue impacting Tesla’s profitability and subsequently its stock.
BYD Shares Down 15% as it Faces Earnings Test The Chinese biggest EV maker broke with its usual practice of not providing guidance ahead of its earnings report due later Monday. This month, the stock’s volatility jumped to the highest since October 2022, indicating increased investor demand for downside protection.
Last year, new competitors ramped up pressure in the Chinese EV market. Savvy investors will be scrutinizing NYSE:BYD ’s results comments for plans for further actions after a move to cut prices on mass-market models ahead of peers this year scored success.
NYSE:BYD has gained momentum lately taking market share from internal combustion-engine cars,” said Daisy Li, fund manager at EFG Asset Management HK Ltd.
Reduction in price helped NYSE:BYD sell about 300,000 vehicles in March, rebounding from a pronounced weakness in the prior month. That helped the stock, which is down less than 1% in Hong Kong this year, while a gauge of global EV makers has declined more than 15%.
The resilience may leave the shares vulnerable to selling pressure if the results disappoint. NYSE:BYD is expected to post sales growth of 10% for the seasonally slow first quarter, which would be its lowest in four years. Gross profit margin is estimated to decline to 19.6% compared with 21.2% in the fourth quarter.
While the price cuts for cheaper models have likely hurt its profitability, NYSE:BYD ’s growth in higher-end models and overseas sales are among the key points traders will be watching for potential positives.
NYSE:BYD ’s strategy is to leverage domestic mass products to maintain production utilization and operating leverage, and balance profit margins with premium models and exports,” said Bing Yuan, a fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.
NYSE:BYD has been expanding its luxury lineup, including the Auto China show launch of the Denza Z9GT, a shooting-brake style design with a heavy emphasis on technology. It rolled out its $200,000-plus Yangwang U9 supercar to rival offerings from Ferrari NV and Lamborghini in February.
NYSE:BYD has a target of selling 500,000 vehicles outside China this year and then doubling that in 2025. It also plans to build its first European car factory in Hungary.
Robert said: “Exports coming from a low base are expected to continue to show strong growth — this will remain a key supporting factor for BYD’s revenue growth and likely margin,” Mumford, a portfolio manager at GAM Hong Kong Ltd. “Outside the leaders, we have been fairly bearish on the sector given high levels of competition and pricing pressure.”
Build Your Dreams (BYD): Moving Higher!Build Your Dreams (BYD): HKEX:285
After closely examining the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD, we've concluded that there is a very appealing and interesting opportunity to start building positions. We are currently in an overarching Wave III. Wave II concluded at the low of 13.20 HKD, and the all-time high is currently at 63.10 HKD. We are now likely in a Wave 5, which should coincide with the completion of Wave (1). Subsequently, a deeper correction to Wave (2) is expected, where we aim to place our next long-term entries, but we also want to place a short-term entry now.
We have successfully completed Wave 4 and since developed Waves ((i)) and ((ii)). This Wave ((ii)) held precisely at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 28.19 HKD, and we should not fall below this before completing the overarching Wave 5 or Wave (1). We should also surpass the Wave 3 high of 40.40 HKD.
BYD: Engine Breakdown 🚘We consider the recent setback merely as part of the substructure of the magenta wave (1). This wave should lead to a sustained rise above the resistance line at HK$280.60. However, our 30% probable alternative scenario should also be noted. This would attest to the corrective nature of the upward movement that has been underway since February. Although the price should continue above HK$280.60 in this case, a significant sell-off should then set in, which would take the price to complete the green wave alt. below the support at HK$161.70.
NIO Long on Disappointing EarningsNIO's disappointing earnings were not a surprise. Given the context of China's recession, NIO
did better than many expected. TSLA is down as well. NIO is doing as well as most of its peers.
On the 120 minute chart, NIO is down 60% from the end of the year highs. The RSI indicator
confirms that NIO is in oversold undervalued territory. NIO is at the bottom of the high volume
area of the profile and has been trending down with the first lower VWAP line as resistance.
I see NIO as likely to trend up as the China economy improves and for that to be reflected
in the next earnings report. NIO's innovative battery swapping program where the car owner
buys a car without a battery and is able to swap out an energy depleted battery for a freshly
charged one in 3 minutes at any of the NIO owned battery stations as a way for NIO
to excel no matter competition from the others in China including TSLA. NIO is now selling
cars in Scandinavia which should serve as steeping stone to further expansion in Europe.
TSLA to NIO market cap comparisonOn a down market day I decided to look at the comparision of market cap between TSLA and NIO by a share price ratio basis. On the daily chart, albeit with fluctuations, TSLA is continuously gaining market cap compared with NIO. This ratio allows for a tool to help decide whether to buy TSLA or NIO.
In short, TSLA is a buy at the low pivots of the ratio, while NIO is the buy at the high pivots which is right now.
Conversely, TSLA is a sell or short at the high pivots while NIO is a sell at the low pivots.
The trade right now is sell TSLA to decrease the position and use the proceeds to buy
NIO either in bulk or in increments to average in.
UCAR a penny China stock now at bottom 300X upside LONGUCAR, a NASDAQ penny stock and a Chinese auto dealership enterprise is experiencing a huge
relative volume spike. UCAR had a great week in very active trading.
Now priced at about 0.07 per share, my near term target is 1.58
representing a consolidation pivot on the chart.
The all time high is the is 300X upside more or less. This is a risky play. It could get delisted
although NASDAQ will give it some more quarterly reports to make a case for regulatory
compliance and stock price stability I will take a small position here given the
risk. Warren Buffet got in on the cheap with BYD over the counter, he has been massively
rewarded for his very large position. Retail traders can make good profits with undervalued
penny stocks. I think that this right now is one of them. I will use a zig zag strategy
to take profits at high pivots and add into the position at low pivots along the way.
When long strong resistance becomes support..BYD Company Limited ($BYDDF)
THE COMPANY:
BYD Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of automobiles and related products worldwide. It operates through three segments: Rechargeable Battery and Photovoltaic Products; Mobile Handset Components and Assembly Service; and Automobiles and Related Products. The company offers internal combustion, hybrid, and battery-electric passenger vehicles; buses, coaches, and taxis; logistics, construction, and sanitation vehicles; and vehicles for warehousing, port, airport, and mining operations. It also manufactures and sells lithium-ion and nickel batteries, photovoltaic products, and iron batteries primarily for mobile phones, electric tools, and other portable electronic instruments; mobile handset components, such as housings and keypads; and automobiles, and auto-related molds and components, as well as provides assembly, and automobiles leasing and after sales services. In addition, it offers rail transit equipment; consumer electronics; and solar batteries and arrays, as well as involved in the urban rail transportation business.
THE TRADE:
Support and resistance levels are important points in time where the forces of supply and demand meet. These support and resistance levels are seen by technical analysts as crucial when determining market psychology and supply and demand. When these support or resistance levels are broken, the supply and demand forces that created these levels are assumed to have moved, in which case new levels of support and resistance will likely be established.
A key concept of technical analysis is that when a resistance or support level is broken, its role is reversed. If the price falls below a support level, that level will become resistance. If the price rises above a resistance level, it will often become support. As the price moves past a level of support or resistance, it is thought that supply and demand has shifted, causing the breached level to reverse its role. (source: Investopedia)
Sales of new energy vehicles surged 148% in September, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed, spurred by Beijing’s promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.
I'm long with a stop below the line.
Long term investment.
Trade safe!
BYD which direction?I like how this is playing out.
Inside an ascending channel.
From here, if the support holds (rectangle area) we might see another leg to the upside to test top of the channel.
If the support doesnt hold, we have the bottom of the trendline as support, if that fails, we see downside.
Watching it this week.
BYD COMPANY Daily TimefameSNIPER STRATEGY
This magical strategy works like a clock on almost any charts
Although I have to say it can’t predict pullbacks, so I do not suggest this strategy for leverage trading.
It will not give you the whole wave like any other strategy out there but it will give you huge part of the wave.
The best timeframe for this strategy is Daily, Weekly and Monthly however it can work any timeframe above three minutes.
Start believing in this strategy because it will reward believers with huge profit.
There is a lot more about this strategy.
It can predict and also it can give you almost exact buy or sell time on the spot.
I am developing it even more so stay tuned and start to follow me for more signals and forecasts.
BYD Sold 50,492 NEVs in July, Up 234% from a Year AgoBYD may supply its "blade battery" to Tesla in the second quarter of next year.
BYD's new energy vehicle sales in July were 50,492 units, up 234 percent from a year ago and 22 percent from June.
So far this year, BYD has sold 205,071 new energy vehicles, an increase of 170.62 percent over the same period last year, it said in an announcement.
BYD sold 50,057 units of new energy passenger vehicles and 435 units of commercial vehicles in July.
It sold 24,996 battery electric vehicles and 25,061 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in July.
Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's passenger vehicle brand and public relations division, said in early June that the company's new energy vehicle sales will surpass Tesla China in June and is expected to become the global new energy vehicle champion within the year.
BYD sold 41,366 new energy vehicles in June, up 192 percent from the same month last year and 26 percent from May.
By comparison, according to the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla China's wholesale sales in June were 33,155 units, up about 122 percent year-over-year.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.