MYM1! Bullish Price Action for 10/31
This week’s overall trend for CBOT_MINI:MYM1! appears bearish, but during the NY session, we’re seeing strong bullish moves, often exceeding 200+ ticks. Given this pattern and the respected supply zone, I anticipate similar price action tomorrow (10/31).
I plan to enter at the 8:30 CST open, aiming for a 250-tick gain, and then sell as price reaches the supply area for a target of 280 ticks.
This is my first posted idea, so let’s hope it plays out as expected. Let’s collect those ticks!
Futures
Nvidia [NVDA] Top is in!! [S #1]----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**First off, I have not posted in a while but the good news is I plan to become active and post consistently!
I will be providing high quality signals, and only signals and analysis that I personally find worth showing. Any smaller less likely to succeed trades I will be avoiding.
This will be a new series of content, I will label posts depending on category:
= Signal (Expect clear and direct post, I will not be showing or explaining much of the TA)
= Educative Post (I will be showing my Technical Analysis (TA) and teaching how it works)
Since this is a new series of posts, I will label this post as the first signal (S #1)
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***ALL ANALYSIS, SIGNALS, AND ANY CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE PROFITED OFF.***
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Current Price which is $140,25 at market close, and $140.30 during the pre market.
It is already starting to dip a bit during the pre market!
This Signal is based from bearish divergences, price action, miscellaneous bear flags, and my special indicator.
$135.24
$127.87
$122.71
Tight Stop loss: $142.52
Good Stop loss: $144.50
Loose Stop loss: $146.20
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***ALL ANALYSIS, SIGNALS, AND ANY CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE PROFITED OFF.***
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Conditions for a correction cycle, pay attention to US PCEAt the time of writing on Thursday (October 31), spot gold was at 2,783 USD/ounce, after reaching a previous record high of 2,790 USD/ounce.
Gold prices rose nearly $13 on Wednesday as uncertainty over the US presidential election fueled safe-haven demand.
Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator and is expected to trigger a big fluctuations in the market.
It is expected that the US PCE price index in September is expected to increase by 0.2% over the previous month and 2.1% over the same period last year.
Surveys also show that the core PCE price index in the US in September is expected to increase 0.3% over the previous month and 2.6% over the same period last year.
Also on the same day, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of October 26 will be released, expected to be 230,000, compared to 227,000 the previous week.
Following the release of the PCE data, investors will need to focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
The focus this week is on jobs data and if strong non-farm payrolls data will support the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December. However, in case NFP data is lower than expected Expected results will be positive for gold prices. Details about this data will be sent to readers in tomorrow's publication. Today we will focus on US PCE data.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly from the area of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension you noticed in yesterday's edition and the temporary correction was not significant.
Maintaining below the 0.50% Fibonacci level gives gold the ability to decrease a bit more with a short-term target of around 2,768 - 2,770 USD where the price point of the 0.38% Fibonacci confluences with the upper edge of the price channel.
In terms of the main trend, gold still has a main trend of increasing prices, but in terms of market structure, gold has also had a long period of price increase where the market will not be able to move in a straight line. Therefore, traders need to be ready for downward corrections, and must also note that during the past 2 years, corrections of hundreds of prices or more have occurred quite frequently. This makes us (traders) have to adapt to the current market environment, the appropriate measures are still volume control and appropriate opening positions and strict protection levels.
Currently, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it would open up a short-term correction with a near-term target around $2,745 as the RSI attempts to turn Go below Level too buy. RSI below is overbought so it is considered a negative signal for gold price.
During the day, the main outlook remains bullish but there are expectations for the above downside correction and notable comments are listed below.
Support: 2,770 – 2,768 – 2,757 – 2,745USD
Resistance: 2,786 – 2,790USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2803 - 2801⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2807
→Take Profit 1 2796
↨
→Take Profit 2 2791
BUY XAUUSD SCALPING PRICE 2756 - 2758⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2752
→Take Profit 1 2763
↨
→Take Profit 2 2768
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2749 - 2751⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2745
→Take Profit 1 2756
↨
→Take Profit 2 2761
Microsoft (MSFT): Can Earnings Sustain the Trend Channel?With Microsoft set to report earnings, investors are keenly watching updates on AI-related spending, especially growth within Azure and Copilot, as well as broader financials. A significant focus will be on capital expenditures (Capex) for generative AI initiatives, expected to rise from $9.92 billion a year ago to an estimated $14.74 billion in this recent quarter. Beyond revenue and earnings, the market is waiting to see how these hefty investments are shaping the company’s growth trajectory.
Technically, NASDAQ:MSFT continues to test the lower bound of its trend channel—a level that may weaken with repeated retests. The stock’s reaction to earnings will reveal if this support can hold. The formation suggests a potential head and shoulders pattern, particularly if NASDAQ:MSFT dips below the neckline support at $388 with declining volume.
For now, we’re maintaining our cautious outlook. If Microsoft fails to hold its key support levels, it may confirm the bearish trend we’ve been observing. As always, we’ll provide updates if any significant developments occur after the earnings report.
GOLD new era levels, pay attention to today's GDP dataOn Asian markets on Wednesday (October 30), OANDA:XAUUSD delivery maintained its uptrend during the day and the gold price has now reached $2,780/ounce once again refreshing its all-time high and heading towards the target technical point noted by readers in yesterday's publication . OANDA:XAUUSD Continuing its upward momentum from the previous session, spot gold rose more than $32 on Tuesday due to uncertainty over the US presidential election and conflict in the Middle East, as well as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve, has enhanced the investment appeal of gold.
During this trading day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. This is the most important economic data of the day and is expected to cause big fluctuations. on the financial market in general and gold in particular.
Current market expectations suggest that the initial value of US real GDP in the third quarter is expected to grow at a quarterly rate of 3%.
If GDP data is higher than market expectations, this could cause gold to correct short-term declines or react lower after a long streak of gains and support the USD. On the other hand, GDP data was much lower than expected, which should be supportive for gold and could see it continue to find new all-time highs.
Ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting on November 6-7, traders will need to closely monitor more US economic data later this week including inflation and employment data. could provide direction for the Fed's 2025 outlook. Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
Because gold does not generate interest, it tends to perform better in low interest rate environments and is considered a hedge against market volatility and risk.
According to Bloomberg, the latest news coming from the situation in the Middle East, Israel launched an attack on a residential building in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya on Tuesday, killing at least 93 Palestinians or more. missing. The US called it a "terrible incident".
Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the latest report by Britain's Reuters on Wednesday said that the Gaza Ministry of Health announced that Israel had launched an attack on a residential building in the northern town of Beit Lahiya Gaza on Tuesday, leaving at least 93 Palestinians dead or missing, and 10 injured. Medical staff said at least 20 children were among the dead.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
The technical chart continues to show that gold has the ability to increase in price comprehensively with the price channel currently trending in the short term. Gold has also had 4 consecutive days of gains after correcting from $2,758, it is heading for the 5th day with an active position that brings a lot of upside prospects.
Currently, gold has broken above the price channel while maintaining price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension, which provides it with room to continue further gains with a subsequent target of around $2,786 Fibonacci price points. extended 0.50% attention to readers in yesterday's edition.
As long as gold remains in the price channel, it will still have a short-term bullish outlook, along with that, once gold breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci level it can continue to increase further towards the original price level of 2,800 USD, Fibonacci point 0.618% at 2,804USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) has just broken above the overbought area, but has not yet peaked nor shown any signs of weakening, so in terms of momentum, prices can still be bullish with expectations of a correction around the area. The price point area was 2,800 USD when RSI peaked.
During the day, the bullish outlook for gold will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,774 – 2,768USD
Resistance: 2,786 – 2,800 – 2,804USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2805
→Take Profit 1 2794
↨
→Take Profit 2 2789
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2740 - 2742⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2736
→Take Profit 1 2747
↨
→Take Profit 2 2752
GOLD is close to the current level of 2,758 USDOn Tuesday (October 29) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price just touched 2,757.74 USD/ounce, setting a new intraday high and approaching the previous historical high.
Traders prepare to release key economic data that will help set the tone for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. Although tensions in the Middle East appear to have cooled, the Uncertainty about the US election still supports gold prices.
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at its two-day meeting starting November 6. Jobs and inflation data, as well as if the results of the US presidential election are contested, This could influence the Fed's decision.
The market still expects policymakers to cut interest rates by 25bps at their November meeting. Lower borrowing costs are typically positive for gold, which does not yield a yield.
According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to be about 98.4%.
When the presidential election between Harris and Trump was still too close, gold had 3 consecutive weeks of increases despite the increase in US Treasury bond yields and the USD, which often puts pressure on precious metals, losing correlation. This describes both gold and USD as having separate supports.
According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, China's gold consumption decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 as high prices suppressed jewelry demand.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has had 3 consecutive days of increase and is heading for the 4th day of price increase after adjusting and taking support from the short-term price channel and the 1% Fibonacci level.
Currently, gold is close to the all-time peak set previously, once gold breaks the $2,758 level which is also the target increase since gold corrected down from this level, it will have enough room to continue. upside with the next target around 2,768USD in the short term, more than the 2,786USD price points of the Fibonacci 0.382% and 0.50%.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up with no signs of weakness as it approaches the overbought area, suggesting that bullish momentum remains solid, and as long as gold remains within the channel it will continue to trend. short-term upward trend.
However, in case it is sold below 2,700 USD, it will open up expectations for a medium-term correction down cycle with the target at the area of the EMA21 moving average. In the current market context, this scenario is quite unlikely.
During the day, the bullish technical outlook for gold prices will be brought into focus again by the following notable levels.
Support: 2,745 – 2,741 – 2,725USD
Resistance: 2,758 – 2,768 – 2,786USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2774 - 2772⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2778
→Take Profit 1 2767
↨
→Take Profit 2 2762
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2730 - 2732⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2726
→Take Profit 1 2737
↨
→Take Profit 2 2742
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here.
dax futures
comment: Daily chart now looks really bad. Next support is around 19000-19100. If bears fail to generate follow through tomorrow, we could retest the bull trend line even up to 19600 again but as of now I heavily favor the bears to go deep red into the weekend.
current market cycle: trading range more likely than start of a bear trend but we only know once we reach 19000 and see if it’s support or not
key levels: 19000 - 19800
bull case: Bulls gave up today after the market failed to print a better close yesterday. Since they have been trying to go above 19800 for so long now, I do think many will wait for a deeper pull back to at least 19000 before buying again. They could try to retest the bull trend line up to 19600 but as of now, it’s a stretch. Got not much for the bulls here.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears now have the best setup in a long time. Clear trend line break and market has tested the highs more than enough. Bears next target is 19000 where we could expect bigger support. 19000 is the previous October low and an exact measured move from the current range down. I will watch futures open in an hour and will likely get on some swing shorts.
Invalidation is above 19620.
short term: Bearish for 19000 if we stay below 19620. My bullish targets are met with this lower high and trend line break. Expecting a deeper pull back before a year end rally.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Globex marked the high of the day and market just sold off. 19300 was expected to be bigger support and market showed a decent reaction where one should have covered shorts.
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bull trend line is now also broken and once market prints below 5800, this is over until year end rally might try 6000 again. Same logic as dax but market is not as bearish after today. Bears need follow through below 5820 and then 5800, if they get it, buckle up. Bulls obviously want to reverse up like the past 2 weeks and trade above 5900 again.
current market cycle: triangle probably broken - entering bigger trading range
key levels: 5800 - 5870
bull case: Bulls need to stay above 5830 or we test 5820, followed by 5800. Today’s close does not look good. Before the close I heavily favored the bulls to reverse this again but then we saw couple of sell spikes which erased the previous lows. Market turns neutral again above 5865.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears need follow through. No surprise. 5800 is the target for tomorrow, once they get it, market is free to fall down to 5730-5740. Interesting day ahead of us.
Invalidation is above 5920.
short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5865. Best chance for bears in a long time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 5880 and buying 5850 has been profitable for many days now. So it was today.
2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Mixed and still undecided. Not one broke out of their patterns today and I expected the breakout last Friday. Dax faked to the upside to sell off to the bull trend line again while nasdaq printed a strong bullish outside bar and is now near the top of the bull wedge. All patterns are still valid and the only constant is that bears are not able to generate follow through selling, so naturally market tries the opposite.
dax futures
comment : Daily chart says it all. Bulls not strong enough to close a day at the highs but bears even weaker and not able to print lower lows. 19600 is the middle of the range and mean reversion pays. I still lean more bullish than bearish for another run at the ath.
current market cycle: late bull trend
key levels: 19400 - 20000
bull case: Bulls broke above the minor bull channel but it was a trap and market sold off to near the bull trend line. As long as this line holds and market makes higher lows, I favor the bulls to retest the ath or go higher for 20000. The current trading range is fairly tight, so there is no deeper meaning to what the market is doing. No side has an advantage and we are waiting for the next impulse. Play the range until it clearly stops working.
Invalidation is below 19490.
bear case: Bears had a decent sell off today but market closed only 40 points lower. Bears need to start printing lower lows but most bears use the lows to cover and scalp out of positions.
Invalidation is above 19750.
short term: Bullish below 19600 for at least 19700. Stop is 19490
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying before EU open was good if you were awake. The selling after the open surprised me big time and I absolutely did not expect bears to be able to get all the way down to below 19600. Good for you if you took it. Best trade was obviously selling 19700 and just holding. Was tough to take if you were long before, because the breakout look good enough.
2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - 2800 is close, nothing is stopping this. BTFD. I expect bigger profit taking around 2800.
gold
comment: I gave the 2800 target a long long time ago and we are close. Only question is, where do you enter new longs? We have a decent channel upwards where the lower trend line is around 2760. Market also respected the 1h 20ema today. We have a big bull trend line from July right above us and that should be resistance until clearly broken. I can’t see this breaking above it, so I would rather buy on pullbacks and I do think there is a very good chance we will see a bigger correction once we reach 2800.
current market cycle: late bull trend
key levels: 2750 - 2800
bull case: Bulls want 2800, that’s it. Any pullbacks should stay inside the current channel and not go below 2760. The rally has become climactic and we can expect a pullback/correction soon.
Invalidation is below 2760.
bear case: Bears see the pattern which lead to around 2800 and it’s a big obvious number. Not many want to short this until market has reached it and they see more bulls taking profits. That is why we are currently in a big hurry to get to the target and bears are not fighting it. On the monthly chart this rally is beyond climactic already and I seriously don’t know if Gold ever printed bigger gains in 4 months or even 4 straight big green months at all. This price action is unsustainable and we will see a bigger correction over the next months.
Invalidation is above 2810.
short term: Bullish and you should not look for shorts until we have touched 2800 and bears build much greater selling pressure.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the breakout around US open above 2770, which was a textbook breakout and good for 160 ticks. Also legit was buying the 1h 20ema, which could have been more profitable but with more risk since your stop had to be wider.
DreamAnalysis | Identifying Key Triggers For ADA✨ Welcome to Today's Analysis!
Today, I’ll be analyzing ADA/USDT and identifying key triggers for trading opportunities in both spot and futures markets.
📅 Daily Timeframe Analysis
In the daily timeframe, ADA/USDT has been in a prolonged downtrend since reaching a high near the resistance level at $0.6660. After about 200 days of decline, the price has now reached the significant support level of $0.3150. This level has proven to be a crucial area of support, experiencing numerous interactions with candlesticks over time, which has slightly weakened its strength.
🔽 If ADA/USDT breaks below this level, it may drop further to the next support level around $0.2770. This area serves as the last stronghold, and a breakdown here could trigger sharper declines. Conversely, a rebound from the support level could lead to bullish triggers at $0.4041 and $0.4649, though these setups carry higher risk. I will use volume and RSI confirmations for entry to mitigate this risk.
🔼 Currently, the volume appears to be consolidating, indicating limited momentum in the market. A confirmed volume spike alongside a support break would suggest a strong bearish move, while a volume increase on a rebound would signal a potential bullish reversal. The primary bullish trigger would be a breakout above $0.4041 for spot trades, with potential targets at $0.4900 and $0.5700.
⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis
Moving to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the $0.3150 support aligns closely with $0.3286 in this timeframe. The price has recently bounced off this level and is currently attempting a pullback. If the pullback establishes a lower high, it will validate the breakdown and we can target $0.2770 next.
📉 In the event of a fake-out (where the price breaks support and then re-enters the range), a recovery above $0.3500 would indicate that buyers are stepping in to push the price higher. In this case, we could anticipate a move toward the upper range, with a long position triggered upon a break of $0.3669. A higher high, confirmed by an RSI move above 50, would strengthen the long setup.
📈 If momentum picks up, we can also aim for the key resistance at $0.4123, offering a solid opportunity for an extended long position.
❌Disclaimer
This is not financial advice; it is merely my personal opinion on how the coin might move. Always conduct your own research before making any decisions.
BITCOIN TODAY - STILL THE KING OF THE CEREMONY (TA+TRADE PLAN)Price Levels and Resistance Zones:
The chart shows several key resistance and support levels marked by blue horizontal lines.
Major Resistance Levels:
$73,654.77
$71,552.73
$69,730.95
Support Levels:
$65,947.27
$60,061.54
$52,774.45
Bitcoin is currently trending upward, with price action near $70,734.95, approaching the resistance zone at $71,552.73.
VMC Cipher B Divergences:
The VMC Cipher B indicator shows bullish momentum with green dots, signaling possible upward continuation.
The RSI and Stochastic lines are also above mid-levels, suggesting continued bullish momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI (14, close) is at 77.25, indicating overbought conditions. This could mean a possible retracement or consolidation in the short term. However, a strong uptrend may continue if Bitcoin maintains support levels above 70.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Stochastic (14, 1, 3) is also at a high level, around 86.19, indicating overbought conditions. This aligns with the RSI and could signal a need for caution on long positions until the oscillator moves back to a neutral or oversold region.
HMA+ Histogram:
The histogram indicates some bullish divergence, but recent bars are turning red, signaling a potential pullback or pause in momentum. Monitoring this for further bearish signs is essential, especially if it crosses below zero.
Trading Plan
Short-Term Strategy:
Entry: Consider entering a long position on a pullback to support around $69,730.95 if bullish signals persist.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below the $65,947.27 support level to limit potential downside risk.
Take-Profit: Target $71,552.73 as the primary take-profit level. If momentum remains strong and BTC breaks above $71,552.73, consider holding for $73,654.77.
Medium-Term Strategy:
Entry: Buy on confirmation of a breakout above $71,552.73 with strong volume.
Stop-Loss: A stop-loss slightly below the breakout level at $69,730.95.
Take-Profit: Set a take-profit target around $73,654.77. If Bitcoin breaches this, reassess the position for potential gains towards higher levels.
Risk Management:
Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1-2% of the trading account on each trade.
Trailing Stop: Implement a trailing stop if Bitcoin strongly surpasses $71,552.73, to lock in gains while allowing for additional upside.
Monitoring Indicators:
Keep an eye on RSI and Stochastic Oscillator for any signs of bearish divergence or weakening momentum.
Monitor VMC Cipher B for any shift in green dots to red, which could indicate potential retracement.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Given the current uptrend and approach to resistance, Bitcoin shows bullish sentiment. However, indicators suggest overbought conditions, so caution is advised.
2024-10-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Gigantic bear gap with Globex open and market closed 370 ticks down or a bit more than 5%. 1h 20ema is resistance until clearly broken. Bulls are in a world of hurt here. 66.5 is the next lower target before we go for 65. Bulls need anything above 68 again.
comment: Market has now went from doing 18% upwards, going down 14% and leaving two bear gaps open. The October low is at 65.74, which will likely be hit over the next 1-2 days and if it does not hold, we will test 64 again. Bulls need to break above the 1h 20ema and then 69. I don’t think they can get much higher than that tomorrow or I’d be surprised big time. Huge difference between bulls and bears on the daily chart, is that bear bars have big tails below and market is still going down hard. Bull bars close on their highs but bulls are getting slaughtered. Could be bulls who bought the 1st of October spike, scaling in and they probably have their stops either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. Either case, it will be interesting to see the market reaction if we drop below those prices.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Couple of ways to try to draw the bear trend line with the lows of the past 3 weeks but all are ugly. Bulls who buy this are probably scaling into positions and their stops are either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. If they can keep the market above 65 and quickly trade back above 69, there is a chance the lows can hold and that we have printed a higher low but those odds are bad after a -5% day. Best they can probably get is sideways movement between 66 and 69.
Invalidation is below 65.74.
bear case: Bears only got the market 80 ticks lower than the Globex spike, which is confirmation of this sell off. Their lower targets are the October low 65.74 and then the September low 63.46. We have an ugly bear channel with almost all bear bars having big tails below them, which shows buying pressure but bears are still selling this down hard. Which is a bit unusual I think. After such a strong bear day, follow through is expected and until bulls have clearly broken above 68 again, that price was decent to short today. For tomorrow I want to see if we have formed a tighter channel than the big one visible on the daily chart and if market is respecting an ema (currently the 1h held). I would not short below 67 but rather on pullbacks.
Invalidation is above 69.
short term: Max bearish. Can’t remember when I have last seen a 200+ tick futures gap that stayed open.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Selling around the EU open was ok once we broke below 68.3.
GOLD and Silver Futures OUTLOOK for the week of Oct. 28, 2024Coming into this week we can see both Gold and Silver are trading away from bullish imbalances, also forming SMT's off those imbalances. We also see that both commodities have CISD's coming off the same lows. In my opinion Gold is showing relative strength, given the fact that it has a failure swing at the lows, while the contrary for Silver. My focus will be towards gold being the stronger pair to long in this scenario. Looking forward to a productive week. Bless.
JASMY AT A PERFECT ENTRY POINT FOR A LONG POSITION! TRADE PLANTechnical Analysis by Blaž Fabjan
Pattern Identification:
The chart displays a falling wedge pattern , a bullish reversal pattern often signifying a potential trend change from bearish to bullish.
The price action is currently testing the upper boundary of the wedge pattern, indicating that a breakout could be imminent if there’s sufficient buying momentum.
Support and Resistance:
Support Line: The lower green line in the falling wedge acts as support. This line has been consistently respected, indicating strong buying interest at those levels.
Resistance Line: The upper green line marks the resistance level within the pattern. A breakout above this line would be considered a strong bullish signal.
Volume Analysis:
There’s a noticeable decrease in volume within the wedge, which aligns with typical falling wedge characteristics. Look for a volume increase on a breakout to confirm the move.
Indicators:
VMC Cipher: Divergences and buy signals have been detected, showing signs of potential momentum shifts.
RSI: At around 41.07, the RSI is approaching the neutral zone (50), suggesting the potential for further upside if it breaks above 50.
Stochastic: Currently around 60.48, indicating upward momentum and possibly further bullish action if it continues moving up.
HMA+ Histogram: Showing minor bullish signals that could align with a breakout confirmation.
Entry Signal:
The wedge breakout zone is highlighted as an “Amazing Entry Point.” The suggested entry is around the resistance line in the pattern, currently close to $0.01743.
Trading Plan
Entry:
Enter a long position once JASMY/USDT breaks and closes above the falling wedge resistance line with increased volume. This would be near or slightly above the $0.0175 level, depending on price action confirmation.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss slightly below the wedge’s recent support level or just below the most recent swing low at around $0.016 to mitigate risk.
Take Profit Levels:
First Take Profit (TP1): Set around the recent swing high near $0.019.
Second Take Profit (TP2): For a more extended target, aim around $0.0205, where the price previously found resistance.
Final Take Profit (TP3): Around $0.022, aligning with previous higher resistance levels.
Risk Management:
Calculate position size to risk no more than 1-2% of your trading account per trade.
Monitor volume closely, as a breakout with low volume may indicate a false breakout, in which case exiting the trade early could be advisable.
Alternative Scenario:
If the price fails to break the resistance and moves back within the wedge, refrain from entering. In this case, wait for a possible retest of the support level around $0.016 as a secondary entry point.
Summary
Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish).
Buy Zone: Above $0.0175, confirmed with volume.
Stop Loss: Below $0.016.
Take Profit Targets: $0.019 (TP1), $0.0205 (TP2), $0.022 (TP3).
btw: VERY GOOD ENTRY POINT AT THE MOMENT!
BITCOIN is the KING and upward movement is highly expected!Technical analysis and trade plan by Blaž Fabjan
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Levels:
72,198.87 USDT
68,556.87 USDT
64,591.15 USDT
Support Levels:
66,333.98 USDT
61,758.48 USDT
60,301.68 USDT
56,902.49 USDT
The key levels indicate potential areas where price action could face resistance or find support, which might serve as entry or exit points.
Indicators:
Wave Cipher Divergences:
Wave Cipher shows divergences suggesting a possible upward momentum. Positive divergences with green dots could imply bullish continuation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI currently reads 55.19, indicating a neutral zone, leaning slightly bullish if it moves towards 60. This suggests Bitcoin isn't overbought or oversold and could continue a gradual trend.
Stochastic Oscillator:
The Stochastic shows a value around 70.52, close to the overbought region (above 80). If it breaks further upward, it may signal an overbought state, potentially leading to a correction.
Hull Moving Average (HMA):
HMA appears to trend slightly downwards, showing a bearish trend in the short term. The value of -6.58 indicates a bearish momentum, which may warn of a potential short-term pullback before any significant uptrend resumes.
Price Action:
The chart shows a potential breakout attempt around the 66,333.98 USDT level, where price action previously tested and retraced. A consolidation near this level could suggest that bulls are preparing for an upward push, especially if price breaks above 68,556.87 USDT.
Volume Analysis:
Volume shows a steady, moderate increase, supporting the upward trend. This moderate volume increase without large spikes could imply gradual accumulation rather than distribution.
Trading Plan
Long Position (Bullish Scenario)
Entry: Consider entering a long position if the price breaks and holds above the 68,556.87 USDT resistance level with volume confirmation.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss slightly below the 66,333.98 USDT support level to mitigate risk in case of a false breakout.
Targets:
Target 1: 72,198.87 USDT — aligns with a strong resistance level and provides a conservative target.
Target 2: 75,553.67 USDT — the next significant resistance level, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Short Position (Bearish Scenario)
Entry: Consider shorting if the price fails to hold above 66,333.98 USDT and shows bearish confirmation, such as a breakdown with high volume.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above 68,556.87 USDT to avoid risks from potential false breakdowns.
Targets:
Target 1: 61,758.48 USDT — a nearby support level that provides a logical take-profit point.
Target 2: 60,301.68 USDT — serves as a secondary target if the bearish trend strengthens.
Risk Management: Given the proximity to resistance and support levels, using a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher is advisable to maintain favorable trade setups.
Monitor Divergences: Keep an eye on divergences in the Wave Cipher, RSI, and Stochastic Oscillator for potential trend reversals or continuations.
News and Market Sentiment: Be mindful of broader market sentiment and news events, as these can influence Bitcoin's price behavior, particularly near key levels.
This trading plan provides a structured approach to capitalize on potential breakouts or breakdowns, balancing both bullish and bearish scenarios.
USDJPY needs to pay attention to the BOJ meeting on ThursdayThe Bank of Japan will make a decision on interest rates this Thursday and the market currently expects the bank to leave interest rates unchanged.
At about 10:00 Hanoi time on October 31 (Thursday), the Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate decision. As fears of a recession in the US ease, the Bank of Japan may signal that its policy outlook will be less dovish.
Recent data shows that Japan's core inflation remains under upward pressure, but the Bank of Japan will likely continue its "wait-and-see" approach at this week's meeting. The market will closely monitor the quarterly outlook report, as well as changes in the Bank of Japan's assessment of risks to the US economy and the recent depreciation of the yen.
Technically, after being limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, OANDA:USDJPY has dropped to get more support from the upper edge of the price channel. Along with that, maintaining price activity above the 0.618% Fibonacci level will be a positive signal for the uptrend in the near future.
Currently, USD/JPY is likely to test the 154.525 level in the short term, more so than the 155.222 level with an upward trend from the near-term price channel.
However, the room for USD/JPY's price increase is no longer too wide as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching the overbought level, signaling corrections to occur. But as long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, it still has an uptrend in the short term, and as long as it stays in the price channel and maintains price activity above EMA21, it still has an uptrend in the medium to long term. The current price drops should be considered a short-term correction without changing the main trend.
In the immediate future, the uptrend of USD/JPY will be noticed by the following technical points.
Support: 153.365 – 151.866
Resistance: 154.525 – 155.22 2
WTI creates a price gap, room for price declineTVC:USOIL dropped sharply in the Asian trading session today, October 28, at press time WTI crude oil maintained a decrease of 3dollars on the day, equivalent to 4.18% and is currently trading at 68.6USD/barrel.
The current risk aversion in the geopolitical situation has subsided. Israel's weekend retaliatory strike against Iran bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear infrastructure without disrupting energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and further weakening pressure on the supply side, at the same time causing disadvantages for rising oil prices.
With the US election approaching and demand expected to show no signs of recovery, some fundamental pressures have returned, causing the energy market to fall into a negative state again.
Technically, on the daily chart of TVC:USOIL It created a GAP jump right at the opening of trading earlier this week and recovered slightly from the upper edge of the price channel.
Although WTI crude oil recovered, it still has not reached the closest support level with the target of around 67.14 - 66.44USD, so WTI crude oil still has the ability to fall further before "filling the GAP".
Usually, price gaps are filled, but this is sometimes not immediate, it can happen over the next one or more months, the important thing in trading is that it depends on the trend.
WTI crude oil has been under pressure from the EMA21 moving average. Note to readers in the previous issue of WTI crude oil, along with that, the Relative Strength Index broke down from the 50 level, showing that The downside potential is very wide and the slope of the RSI also shows a huge downward momentum.
Technically, WTI crude oil has enough pressure to decrease in price with main resistance at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Along with the downtrend, notable technical levels of WTI crude oil will be listed as follows.
Support: 67.14 – 66.44USD
Resistance: 68.59 – 69.73 – 70.56USD
GOLD has broken out of the profit-taking trendSupported by tensions in the Middle East and US election tensions, OANDA:XAUUSD broke out of the profit-taking trend and then recovered in the last trading session of the week.
As a hedge against political and economic instability, OANDA:XAUUSD is up more than 32% this year and has renewed all-time highs multiple times. This is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the market's need to hedge, creating a rising storm in precious metals like gold.
Uncertainty about the US presidential election also boosted gold demand as polls showed the race for the White House remained tight.
The Dollar increased for the fourth consecutive week as Trump's chances of victory increased. Gold increased despite the stronger Dollar because these two assets both have separate supports that are outside the influence of each other in terms of direct correlation.
The COMEX gold speculative contract increased its net long position by 6,806 lots to 242,089 lots. This increase shows that the market's optimism towards gold has continued to increase.
What should gold traders focus on in the current market context?
Important events in the gold market this week mainly focus on geopolitical and economic policies. The following are key events and data affecting the gold market currently and in the near future.
1. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up
Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip this week have killed and injured many Palestinians. This incident not only caused risk aversion in the market but also caused investors to rush into gold. The war in the Middle East is also increasingly showing signs of spreading further in the near future, this is certainly a very potential support for gold.
2. Uncertainty of the election of the President of the United States
About the US presidential election The US presidential election is approaching Public opinion polls show that the election situation is still deadlocked and the market is very sensitive to the uncertainty of the election results .
This factor has increased investor demand for gold and demand for gold bars continues to be strong. Domestic political turmoil in the United States has increased market demand for a safe haven and further strengthened gold's position as a safe haven asset.
3. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
The Federal Reserve announced a 50bps interest rate cut, and this policy measure further supported gold's rise. The interest rate cuts have made the US Dollar less attractive, causing investors to switch to unprofitable assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices. At the same time, in a low interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased and this has caused gold prices to increase more than 32% this year.
4. Impact of the US Dollar on gold prices
It is worth noting that the US Dollar continued its upward trend this week, but it did not put too much pressure on gold prices. This is because gold and the US Dollar are being influenced by two different factors, on the one hand gold is supported by the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical instability, on the other hand the US Dollar is supported by the possibility of Trump's "coronation" as President.
General baseline assessment
The overall fundamental picture shows that gold is almost the top choice with solid supportive market conditions, from monetary policy to instability, geopolitical conflicts continue to risk spreading along with the uncertainty of the US presidential election.
Even if a direct correlation like the US Dollar increases, gold is still not affected by it.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Tuesday: JOLTS Jobs
Wednesday: ADP jobs data, Q3 GDP, US pending home sales, Bank of Japan monetary policy decision.
Thursday: Core PCE, Personal income and spending, Weekly unemployment claims
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls ; ISM manufacturing PMI index
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Technically, gold has no structural changes with an upward trend in both short, medium and long term from price channels.
After gold corrected, it recovered from the price channel, receiving support from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension and the lower edge of the price channel that readers noticed last week. The price recovery helped gold break above the $2,741 1% Fibonacci extension price point.
The current closing position gives gold the conditions to continue to increase with a target of 2,748 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,758 USD.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and notable technical levels for gold's uptrend are listed below.
Support: 2,720 – 2,711USD
Resistance: 2,748 – 2,758USD - … New ATH
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2771
→Take Profit 1 2760
↨
→Take Profit 2 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2695
→Take Profit 1 2706
↨
→Take Profit 2 2711
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.27 - 11.01Last Week :
Last week Sunday Globex opened right at the upper Edge with a sell back to VAH. Going into the week being under the Edge and under 900 was our key to see moves back to Value, we saw pushes inside Value Monday RTH and Tuesday Pre Market which were bought up until we built more supply right around VAH which finally gave us a move into Value for the 70 - 50s and 40s targets. We did get enough Volume to make it all the way down to VAL and through towards the lower Edge but ran out of Supply right at the top of Previous Distribution Balance and were able to come back inside Value. We ended the week with another attempt out of VAH which ran out of buying and came back inside Value to take back the whole move which was done during Globex hours to close under the Mean right into the Intraday Range Edge of 41 - 36.
This Week :
Looking at this weeks chart and price location it's not as easy to read as there are lots of possibilities which could happen. We are going into Month end week, have quite a bit of market moving data, supply in Value and above, and covering at and under VAL.
30m , 2h, 4h are in correction mode, 1hr not quite there just yet if we are looking at the MAs.
Daily TF also giving us first signs of correction starting but it's just the first steps which means it might not be ready yet for any bigger continuation lower and at the same time have the Supply in Value and above to possibly go down and fill the buying in around VAL and Under.
Of course IF stronger volume comes in and we see strong acceptance under VAL and are able to push inside or through the lower Edge then that could bring in a bigger change for more downside into lower HTF Range/our Previous Distribution Balance low and lower Value so will be something to keep in mind and watch for.
If we can't stay above 840s - 50s to stay over the Mean of this Value and stay in this 880 - 40 Intraday Range then we will look for pushes into VAL and under, at and under VAL we have to be careful as there could be enough buying/covering to keep us away from the Edge but at the same time not give us big bounces as we have seen before, instead we could distribute around this 840 - 800s area. After failing at the upper Edge with Supply above, lower Edge and even push under it could be a good target/move to see this week but I am just trying to stay away from getting too biased to not push for it but its something to keep in mind.
For us to think higher prices from here again we would need to either hold above 840s and get back over 50 - 60s to stay in 880 - 40s Intraday Range and see pushes towards VAH or consolidate around VAL without accepting under and then push back over Value Mean.
And if buying and selling on both sides of Value is still strong enough then we could continue holding and going back and forth between VAH/VAL.
Overall looking at HTFs it seems like we are ready for a bigger back fill to finally happen in the market but it might take time to play out, if there will be interest I can post a Daily TF Chart which shows the range we broke out of is 5750s - 5400s, a back fill to break out area and IF we get back inside then move towards Mid/lows and under of that range can be in play but again that's HTF Outlook that can take a LONG time to fully play out not for intraday or shorter term swing trading.
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 : Multiple ways to draw triangles and bull wedges on the daily chart. It has room to go more sideways but Friday’s reversal was so strong an market closed at the lows, that I think many bulls have enough reason to be disappointed and will exit once we break below 5800 and then we will likely see 5750 next. Above 5905 I am wrong and this will likely be the leg to 6000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other.
comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges and a minor triangle from past 2 weeks
key levels: 5800 - 6000
bull case: 6000 is the target. Bulls now tried many times to break above 5930 but continue to fail. Same reasoning as for dax. Can the market find more buyers above 5900 next time we get there or do we have to pull back down to 5730 first? Until we see a daily close below 5800, bulls are still favored, since we are only closing above the daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears are printing weak bear bars and can not close below the daily ema. Pure guesswork as of now, which side will give up first. We will very likely get a bigger move next week, so don’t blow your account until then. If bears move strongly below 5800, 5730 is next and there it’s big decision time if we see 6000 or not.
Invalidation is above 6050.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5906 and now we are at 5846. Most of the week was neutral, and we closed just 60 points lower than last week.
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed wave count
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Clear two legged pullback on the 4h chart. Could be enough for the bulls to take control again and go for 2800 on Monday/Tuesday. If they fail below 2780 again, we could see a more complex pullback down to 2700. Market is clearly still max bullish and I doubt we see better selling until we hit 2800 or even 3000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish it was and still is. 2800 is the next big target to hit. After 4 very strong consecutive bull bars, you can not hold a bearish thought while the market makes daily new ath. Two upper bull trend lines are still to hit, one of them leads to 2760 and the other to 2800. On the monthly chart we are in a 8 month micro channel upwards without any selling pressure. At some point market will pull back more and we will see a correction but until we see much greater selling pressure, we can not trade on hope.
comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking.
current market cycle: very strong bull trend (trade the channel until it is clearly broken)
key levels: 2650 - 2800
bull case: All arguments are on the bull side, again. 2800 is the target. Anything below 2680 would surprise me. I don’t expect much interest from buyers above 2800 though.
Invalidation is below 2680.
bear case: Bears got nothing. Again. Daily 20ema is at 2700 and the lower bull channel line is not far from that. If bears get there before 2800, that would surprise me and I do not think those two supports have a decent chance of being broken. If they somehow manage to do so, 2620 would be the next support. I do not have any bearish thoughts about this market until we see 2800 and then much more sideways movement to conclude that market found resistance.
Invalidation is above 2820.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 2800+
→ Last Sunday we traded 2730 and now we are at 2754. Meh outlook. Still not 2800 but we are probably getting there next week.
short term: Bullish for 2800. Again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22 : Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2800 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None