USO / UCO a play on barrel oil shock LONGUCO is shown here as a one month trend - It is sitting on the rising support tendline about
2% below the recent high. Oil prices contribute to inflation. Anyone in the USA is aware of
gasoline prices at the pump. Geopolitics plays into price. At present, US Navy warships are
consuming refined oil and heading to the Middle East. Iran and Russia are sanctioned and must
sell oil on the global market ( primarily India and China ) at artificially low prices. If Iran
retaliates against Isreal, its oil infrastructure will be bombed back into the Stone Age in less
than a day or two by the US. Global oil prices will spike nearly instantly from spot oil to
futures. US Domestic producers will benefit ; the insane net cash flow to them will
dramatically increase quickly. Russia will sell more oil to make up for Iran being taken off
supply but will not capitalize so much given the sanctions. The price of oil will likely go
north of $100 USD / barrel and potentially higher. Iran could go nuclear and any residual
oil infrastructure would be turned into a quagmire of scrap metal in another day of work for
the US Navy bombers and the fighter jets that escort them into strategic missions.
Defense contractor stocks will spike as well. This could be a black swan event.
My trading dictates that I add to my positions and average in until price goes against my idea.
I am increasing my positions in gold and silver along with ETFs inversing the indices banks
and financial stocks until the dust is settled. This includes any plays on VIX. I will also look
at individual domestic oil stocks as well as junior precious metal miners.
Longoil
USOUSD Spot Oil Jumps on Geopolitical Escalation LONGSpot Oil on 30-minute chart had a slow rise in the past 24 hours followed by a pause and then a
jump on the Israeli retaliation strikes into Iran. Middle East oil shipping in the Red Sea and
Persian Gulf are at risk and shipping insurance for ongoing shipments is likely to experience
heavy rate increases if shipping does occur. Houthi rebels may resume proxy attacks on the
behalf of Iran. New sanctions contemplated against Iran may include increased action on oil
exports and the Israelis could target oil infrastructure. Overall, spot oil now has a bullish
bias. I see good cause to increase oil based positions at this time. My target for spot oil
based on VWAP lines currently on the chart is 87.5 about 4% upside without leveraging.
The volume indicator shows increased buying volumes relative to selling. The PVT shows a quick
burst of trend momentum while the TTM indictor triggered and has an upgoing histogram.
USDUSD Oil Prices react to Middle EastOn Thursday January 11th ( earlier today) WTI Crude prices gyrated widely
likely in reaction to US /UK intervention on the terrorists who seized a tanker on the behalf of
Iraq in the Red Sea / Suez Canal area putting shipping and supply concerns into the oil industry
to offset any weak demand. The 15 minute chart shows a megaphone pattern as a
demonstration of waves of relative volatility in price action. I have a position shorting oil
and will now close that position as I see a long entry developing here. US companies that use
rail and pipeline matching domestic production to consumption are less impacted by this
oceanic shipping issue. I will focus on them especially. OXY is at the top of the list and then
MRO.
USOUSD rising for LONGUSOUSD after its minor correction on the 15-minute chart is resuming its
bullish trend with an engulfing green bar and confirmatory indicators
including an uptick in the postive directional index and on the BB a
move from a bounce near to the basis band toward the upper bands.
I will go long on leveraged forex.
CVX drops and then starts to recover LONGCVX today dropped suddenly for unclear reasons. The possibility of a Israeli - Hamas War
cease-fire may have led to expectations that oil prices would fall as the shipping
quagmire in the Red Sea might stabilize. Later in the day OPEC+ announced a raised target of
$ 1.00 per barrel higher which on balance seems to be an offset maneuver. CVS in the drop
lost 2% printed a bear flag in about 90 minutes. i will use this opportunity to buy some all
options for September after the height of the summer driving seasons to add to my positions
in the futures ETF USO and OXY.
USO ( Oil Futures ETF) Swing Trade Review LONGThe idea was that while US Oil is not directly affected by the tensions in the Middle East as
most of it is domestic consumption, what portion of it that is exported does not go through the
Suez Canal but rather across the Pacific to Asia mostly. The idea was expanded by no matter
that, the Middle East quagmire affects global oil prices all intertwined. The China recession
is a drag on oil prices as is Russian sales below market but no matter the shipping costs have
gone up and so also the price of what is being shipped.
The 30-minute chart shows the trades based on the premise of a volume profile with the
evolving high volume area between the blue lines and price simply a black line. As the price is
supported by the lower black line and resisted by the upper black line and the price is expected
to rise, the trade plan was to "buy low" when the price dropped to the lower black line with
two lots of shares. When the price rose to the upper black line sell one of those lots and run the
other to gradually acquire more shares and average up. A high-volume area breakout 3 days
ago was also used as a buy signal.
As of the present, the trade is carrying five lots of 10 shares each. Profit has been pulled out
in partials each time a lot has been sold at a red down arrow. The trade close signal will be
from the RSI indicator when the fast RSI line in green goes under the slower red RSI line.
Upon closure, the profits will be redeployed by shorting USO using a similar strategy: short
selling at the top of the high volume area two lots of shares and buying to cover one lot at the
bottom of the high-volume area. Although this trade is a slow-moving swing trade used for
disciplined and deliberate trading, it is very low risk with moderate profit and for the most
part is risk-free because the entry points are relatively precise especially if using a shorter
time frame than the 30 minutes here.
MRO US Oil LongThe US Energy Department has announced open bids for oil contracts to replenish the
national strategic reserve which was depleted during the prior run up on global oil prices.
This is a sure sign that the feds think that spot oil has but in a bottom especially in the context
of shipping disruptions and higher insurance costs due to terrorism /piracy in the area of the
Red Sea and Suez Canal. In the meanwhile two South American countries are having sovereignty
disputes over oil fields and the British Navy is offshore to buttress the interests of Guyana.
MRO is a domestic oil producer that is independent of Middle East issues. Its oil is consumed
mostly in the US with a little shipping to Asia only. On the 50 minute chart, price downtrended
from January 3th through and then below the high volume area of the volume profile.
Price has reversed back up and reapproached the evolving high volume area. The dual TF
MACD ( by Chris Moody) shows moving average divergence. Chris Moody's dual TF RSI indicator
shows the faster TF RSI rising over the slower TF RSI as a sign of bullish momentum.
I have taken both a stock and call options position in MRO having zoomed into the 15 minute
TF for a good entry. Given the level of challenges current geopolitics presents to
smooth flowing and inexpensive shipping of crude oil, I am expectant of significant gains
in these positions. I have also looked into a position in OXY and CVE, which is a Canadian
crude producer.
UCO a crude oil ETF LONGUCO popped in April and then dropped into a consolidation in May and June where
it set up a base shown by the POC line on the volume profile. Once over the POC
on July 6th on the daily chart coinciding with a golden cross on the HMA 56/210
combination the bull trend began. The dual time frame RS lines in the 60s suggest
more to come. I am trading UCO and similar oil-based instruments including USOUSD
or forex in the near term until I see signals of a topping that are not yet evident.
IMPP a volatile penny oil/energy LONG pre-earningsIMPP is rising from its lows of July after falling from a triple top in June at 3.8 which is
the target for a long trade. Price is now above the POC line of an intermediate term volume
profile having crossed the mean VWAP line anchored at the share split (purple and thick black
lines respectively). Price bounced off the first negative standard deviation line making this
a VWAP band bounce. The MACD lines are upgoing and so diverging. I see a stop loss of
0.2 as compared with a profit target of 0.6 making this setup a r:R ratio of 1:3. I will go long
here also knowing of the rising energy sector supporting this ticker. This stock is a retail
trader favorite when energy is" hot". With earnings in the morning, for me this is a no brainer
to buy in the premarket and if rising complement with a call option. If you want my idea of
a good call option, please ask in a comment.
USOUSD rises on reversal USOUSD today on the 15-minute chart dropped on a downtrend outside the Bollinger (lower)
Band (49, ohlc,2) hit a Doji candle and then started the upward retracement. The RSI indicator
shows relative strength hitting a bottom and bouncing up. RSI is about to go over 50. Price
is currently below the high volume area with the POC line aligned with the basis center line
of the Bollinger Bands. The ECHO indicator, a predictive algo tool is for a 2.5 % upward trend
over the next 2-3 days. I see this as a good entry point for a long leveraged forex trade.
NRT- European Energy PlayNRT an oil trust stock, is up 75 % for the year despite global challenged market. It is in the middle of its trading range for the past 12 months.
Given the situation in Europe and lack of Russian oil in the free global oil market. I see this as a long-term swing play on energy with
upside heading into the European winter heating season. With the RSI between 40-50% this market is not oversold or bought.
VET is pumping profits LONGVET like OXY is showing a great chart with consistent price action.
Fundamentally, it has had great earnings reports in the past year.
It rates an 8/8 on the Minervini Trend scale showing strength and duration of trend
as very high. Vermillon Energy has been strong in the general market downturn.
I see this as a Swing long setup with a good expectant reward for the risk assumed.
I am considering the call strike $30 option for September 16th.
USOUSD Swing LONG ( Bullish Pennant)BITTREX:USOUSD
USO having retraced down from its high at resistance above
its uptrend until bouncing off a retriacement Fibonacci
level is now poised to rebound up until at least hitting
the respective Fibonacci levels of that move. This
appears to be a bullish pennant now ready for
a continuation / breakout.
I see an immediate term upside of 10% and will set a
stop loss of 1 % making for a reward of 10X
WTI Crude Oil - The crossroad you need to know about !18.4 1) The breakout above the down trend-line starting from the highest high , when the price went above 101, marked the beginning of the movement we've seen so far (+$8).
2) There's 2 technical scenario playouts:
*Break above 108.20 with a 4h/1d close - 113.40 to 114.64 may be reached in the very short-term
*Break below 104.50 with a 4h/1d close - 97.90 to 93.20 may be reached in the very short-term
3) The circles on the chart mark the horizontal levels of support/resistance which play a very important role in price action.
4) Converging lows and highs are so far in the shape of a 'rising wedge" which could mean there's a higher potential for reversal down.
5) Fundamentally, oil is currently acting within an 'emotional' investor phase , which means in simple terms, there's no real shortage of oil so far - And reality may hit the price hard at any given time.
OPEC, Aramco, SHELL, USA all have capability to supply the entire world with oil if necessary.
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cvx/tsla and tsla/spxLooking at oil v tsla and tsla v spx
Just an observation, CVX/TLSA (top) had a double bottom at .10 - during this time, tsla made new highs relative to SPX(bottom)
Interestingly tslaspx is headed towards new highs it looks like while CVX/TSLA is hovering around 0.15
The fact TSLA was 9% higher due to a stock split is laughable, and shows just how absurd these markets are.
I think the trend of CVX/TSLA is just getting started...from a longterm perspective it really cant get much more exhausted and finally people are waking up to how important oil still is in context of global energy.
BRENT CRUDE OIL BULISH PATTERNBRENT Crude Oil opened with a bullish gap yesterday after the weekend, but it managed to cover it during the trading day and to revert back in long direction, although not managing to reach the levels of yesterday's open.
The Upper and the Lower Band of the Bollinger Bands are moving closer together, which is an indicator that the BRENT had lost some of it's initial volatility, which may present a good point of entry due to shrinking spread. The 9 day Moving Average has crossed the 20 day Moving average, and the histogram of the MACD is increasing, which is an indicator for bullish traders to enter.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
British Petroleum *BP Long Setup Long Setup at the bottom of a ascending channel for BP
4HR TF
Areas of confluence too include 200EMA
0.618 Fib pull from High to Low
Volume Profile *POC Point of Control
.618 Fib Speed fan
All confluences within the orange Box in the chart
Be responsible for your SL and Invalidation
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