American Airlines AAL approaching an important level AAL is on a 30 minute chart. It had a big downtrend for the first week of the month and then
consolidated in a tight range and then a retracment trend up. Price has reached the top
of the high volume area of the volme profile. It is near to the standard Fibonacci retracement
zone tooled onto the chart. This zone from above rejected price on March 7 and 8.
AAL has had news of late about baggage problems but then came the news about an agreement
about expansion and remodeling at O'Hare in Chicago. I will watch AAL here, it make
break through the zone and then rise as much as 5%. However, it could be rejected and
5% into its support based out during the consolidation.
LUV
UAL Falling Wedge Pattern SHORT from the Resistance TrendlineUAL is looking to fall 10% from the upper resistance trendline as the summer travel season
comes to a close. Shorting UAL with a put option in the money expiring in one month. Current
trend shows traders are not impressed by earnings without corresponding revenue support.
Analysts will likely soon proclaim a downgrade.
Can SAVE reverse from a lower low LONGSAVE missed out on a merger into Jet Blue. No other suitors have come along. It has sunk
in a falling wedge with episodic trends up in the wedge. At present price is at the longer
support trendline of that wedge. Relative strength reflects an oversold and undervalued
condition. The Fisher transform shows a curling up suggestive of the reversal. I will take a
long trade here as SAVE's trend down may be overdue for a correction. I am looking for a
swing trade of 20&% overall with the targets on the chart.
Southwest Airlines Welcomes Seat Change and a Massive BoardingAs Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ) charts a course through turbulent times in the aviation industry, the iconic carrier is contemplating a radical overhaul of its boarding and seating policies. In a bid to address operational challenges and enhance revenue streams, CEO Bob Jordan has hinted at sweeping changes that could revolutionize the passenger experience.
Rethinking Tradition:
Since its inception in the 1960s, Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ) has prided itself on its unique boarding process, eschewing assigned seats in favor of a free-for-all seating arrangement. However, amidst mounting frustrations and evolving consumer preferences, the airline is reevaluating this hallmark strategy, considering alternatives to streamline the boarding process and optimize cabin utilization.
Navigating Turbulent Skies:
The airline industry has been rocked by unprecedented challenges, with Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ) facing a particularly turbulent journey in recent times. A dismal earnings report, coupled with significant workforce reductions and route cancellations, has underscored the urgent need for strategic recalibration. Against this backdrop, the exploration of new boarding and seating initiatives emerges as a pivotal strategy for charting a path towards sustained profitability.
Embracing Change:
In a candid acknowledgment of the need for transformation, CEO Bob Jordan has signaled a departure from convention, asserting that Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ) is actively exploring innovative solutions to enhance the passenger experience and bolster financial performance. By reassessing seating configurations and cabin layouts, the airline aims to unlock new revenue streams while optimizing operational efficiency.
Balancing Tradition with Innovation:
While Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ) remains committed to its core principles of affordability and accessibility, the company recognizes the imperative of adapting to shifting market dynamics. The proposed changes in boarding and seating represent a delicate balance between preserving the airline's distinctive identity and embracing innovation to meet the evolving needs of modern travelers.
A Vision for the Future:
As Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ) embarks on this journey of reinvention, the airline industry watches with bated breath, anticipating the potential impact of these bold initiatives. Beyond mere logistical adjustments, the contemplated changes symbolize a broader commitment to reimagining the flying experience, reaffirming Southwest's position as a trailblazer in the skies.
Technical Outlook
Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ) stock closed Friday trading down 0.84% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 36 trading below the 200-day Moving Average (MA).
LUV and Attendants love the Settlement LONGLUV on a 120 minute chart fell heavily on news of a looming strike by flight attendants 18 %
into a bear flag and support followed by a narrow range consolidation and a volatility
squeeze which broke on news of the settlement. I LUV Sowthwest and its travel mileage perks
and open seating. The NR7 indicator on watch was firing continuously. I am taking a long trade
here and now with adds at any dips found moving foward. It is hard to pass by an 18% sale.
This will be profitable and will subsidize travel on LUV.
Southwest Airlines Faces Turbulence Shares Drops by 14.5%Southwest Airlines ( NYSE:LUV ) finds itself navigating through stormy skies as it grapples with the cascading effects of Boeing's ongoing challenges. The airline, renowned for its efficiency and customer-centric approach, has been forced to implement drastic measures, including a hiring freeze and capacity cuts, in response to disrupted aircraft deliveries from the troubled planemaker. As Southwest ( NYSE:LUV ) shares plummet and industry-wide repercussions unfold, the turbulence facing the aviation sector becomes increasingly evident.
Boeing Woes Cast Shadow:
Southwest's decision to slash capacity and halt hiring stems from the ripple effects of Boeing's turbulent saga. Regulatory scrutiny and criminal investigations following a near-catastrophic accident have compelled Boeing to cap output of its 737 Max model, leaving airlines like Southwest in a lurch. With diminished aircraft deliveries and heightened uncertainty, Southwest faces an uphill battle in maintaining operational stability amidst turbulent skies.
Financial Fallout and Industry Impact:
The repercussions of Boeing's woes extend far beyond Southwest, casting a shadow over the broader aviation industry. Alaska Airlines, another casualty of the January accident involving a Boeing 737 Max 9, grapples with capacity uncertainties and financial setbacks. As airlines recalibrate their forecasts and adjust to the evolving landscape, the challenges posed by Boeing's crisis underscore the interconnectedness of the aviation ecosystem.
Navigating Uncertain Skies:
Southwest's revised outlook for the year reflects the harsh realities of navigating uncertain skies. With reduced aircraft deliveries and lower-than-expected leisure passenger volumes, the airline braces for a challenging quarter ahead. However, early indications of strong second-quarter bookings offer a glimmer of hope amidst the turbulence, highlighting the resilience of Southwest's customer base in the face of adversity.
Industry Insights and Outlook:
As the aviation industry converges at a pivotal industry conference, airlines confront a landscape fraught with challenges and opportunities. While American Airlines anticipates a first-quarter loss at the low end of expectations, Delta Air Lines maintains optimism with robust revenue growth projections. JetBlue Airways, meanwhile, grapples with declining revenue but remains cautiously optimistic about cost management and capacity adjustments.
Highlighting $LUV's Key Pivot Level
Fundamentals Analysis
1. NYSE:LUV announced a quarterly dividend of $0.18 per share, payable on January 6, 2024, to shareholders of record on December 20, 2023.
2. NYSE:LUV faced a regulatory action from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which proposed requiring Boeing 737 operators to replace certain fan blades after a fatal incident involving a Southwest flight in 2018.
Technical Analysis
NYSE:LUV 50-day Moving Average is trading below the 200-day Moving Average of the stock indicating a Bearish Trend.
Despite the current trend, NYSE:LUV 's showing signs of a Retest at the 2nd Pivot Level.
LUV Southwest Airlines Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LUV Southwest Airlines prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 25usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 22024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $2.80.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
LUV is loving the summer vacation travel LONGLUV has been in a persistent trend up for a couple of months after lackluster earnings were
reported in early May with another due on July 27th. The airports have been quite busy
with vacation travel and Southwest has been part of that action. On the 1H chart, price has
been supported by the line two standard deviations above the mean anchored VWAP which
shows persistent relative strength in a rise of over 25% over two months. Price above the
POC line of the volume profile is another sign of buyer dominance. The MACD indicator show
the lines in parallel and above a positive histogram. The relative volatility indicator shows
sufficient volatility to support momentum trading.
I will take a long trade going into earnings. I will do this with ten call options contracts
with a strike at $40 expiring on July 28th. On the last trading day, this contract had
a low of $ 0.36 and a high of $0.48 for a range of 33% in a single day. I expect similar
price action as the earnings date approaches. I expect to pay about $480 for ten contracts
and the profit expectation is 100% over the next 15 trading days.
LUV - BEARISH SCENARIO For Q1 2023, operating revenues are now expected to rise in the 21-23% range compared with the 20-24% year-over-year growth estimated earlier.
However, LUV continues to expect a negative revenue impact in the $300-$350 million band in the first quarter of 2023, primarily limited to January and February, due to operational disruptions in December 2022.
The downtrend which started back in April 2021 seems to continue.
The next price target is located at the $ 23-25 support level.
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AAL LONG American AirlinesAAL is shown here on a one hour chart with anchored VWAP bands shown.
The anchoring is set for the beginning of the year. Based on the price action
drawn in are support and resistance zones. When price is one or more standard
deviations below the mean VWAP, the stock is undervalued and institutional buyers will
set buy orders. ( Short sellers will close there position to provide shares to
the buyers and take their profit off the table
(When the price is one or more standard deviations above the mean
VWAP, the stock is overvalued. Institutional sellers will sell their shares ( either
shares at a profit or short sell )
At present price, action has retreated to the upper part of the support zone.
AAL is getting to a buying point.
The relative volume indicator shows huge increases in volume compared with the
rolling average volume of the past 50 days. Essentially current volume is 10X
that average meaning there is extreme interest in this stock and great liquidity.
Fundamentally, AAL has had two prior quarters of earnings reports and the upcoming
earnings could be fueling volatility and potential price surge.
I see this as reversal setup for great entry for a 45-60 DTE call option at or in the money or a
long swing trade targetting just below the resistance zone or one standard deviation
above the VWAP.
Widow Makers Airline Stocks Beat the Market by the New YearSince the beginning of the new year, airline stocks have performed exceptionally well despite the very chaotic condition of the US airspace and travel market. Here is the year-to-date performance of a few well-known airline stocks, along with the Boeing stock and the U.S. Global Jets ETF:
● U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS): +18.56%
● United Airlines (UAL): +37.53%. Zacks EPS estimation: 2.07. Earning release: 1/17/23.
● American Airlines (AAL): +33.62%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.60. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● JetBlue Airways (JBLU): +26.40%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.17. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● Alaska Air (ALK): +18.16%. Zacks EPS Est. 0.88. Earning release: 1/26/23.
● Delta Air Lines (DAL): +16.31%. Reported EPS: 1.48 vs 1.29 estimated.
● Southwest Airlines (LUV): +13.15%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.25. Earning release: 1/17/23.
● Spirit Airlines (SAVE): +6.83%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.04. Earning release: 2/6/23.
● Boeing (BA): +10.01%. Zacks EPS estimation: 0.29. Earning release: 1/25/23.
● S&P 500: +4.60%
$LUV Key Levels, Analysis & Targets - Request$LUV Key Levels, Analysis & Targets
Target 1 & 2 really aren’t that far away. And it could hold at that EMA line. But if it doesn’t there’s two additional targets below it. And you should be able to take a good 20% swing here if you average in right, even if just the first two hit... If all 4 hit I'd be going for 25%… Hope this helps.
GL & happy swinging…
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
ONLY ADD at support levels & FIB levels… labeled (most of the time)
(Support=Green, Resistance=Red, Trendlines=Blue) Fib will be labeled if any and their colors will vary.)
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
Technical analysis update: JETS (8th February 2022)The airlines sector has been strongly impacted during the Covid 19 crisis which resulted in slump of most aviation related stocks. Over the past two years, this sector has been lagging behind the rest of the economy as a result of persisting lockdowns, travel restrictions and other health related mandates. Although, some countries such as Italy, Great Britain, Denmark, Norway and Switzerland are already seeing restrictions on social life being eased. We expect this phenomenon to continue globally and strengthen over time as the Omicron variant poses lower health risk when compared to previous strains of the virus. We view this as a very positive development for the airline sector and as one that will bring air travel back to life over time. Additionally, we think this will act as a catalyst which will result in a revival of the bullish trend. At the moment, the JETS ETF remains approximately 36% below its all time high value which is attractive pricing in our opinion. Further, we are becoming increasingly bullish on the JETS ETF; because of that we would like to set a short-term price target to 23 USD and medium-term price target to 25 USD. Additionally, we would like to set a long-term price target to 30 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the weekly chart of combined market cap of AAL+DAL+LUV+BA. It is 45% below its all time high value from February 2019.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the weekly chart of combined market cap of LHA+AF+RYAAY. It is approximately 17% below its all time high value from November 2017.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD is due to perform a bullish crossover which strongly bolsters the bullish case for JETS. Stochastic is bullish too. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX contains low value which suggests that the prevailing trend is either neutral or very weak.
Illustration 1.03
Picture above shows the daily chart of JETS. It also shows the downward moving channel where upper bound acts as resistance and lower bound as support. We expect an eventual breakout above the resistance. Breakout setup for this trade would involve entry above the resistance and stop-loss below it.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD remains in the bearish area; though, it is flat and trying to turn to the upside. Stochastic is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish with ADX showing presence of weak or neutral trend.
Support and resistance
Resistance 1 lies at 22.94 USD and Resistance 2 at 25.20 USD. Resistance 3 sits at 28.98 USD. Support 1 can be found at 19.28 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Not enough LUVAirlines are not doing well still despite a bunch of propping up by various institutions. These earnings are going to be absolute garbage and the broader market is also gonna tank too. I expect a rally to the 44-45 range with a likely rebound Monday in the broader market. After this, there is nothing holding airlines up for the foreseeable future. What bullish catalyst exists for airlines right now? They've been on life support since the get-go and the labour shortage along with Omicron has completely wiped out Q4 earnings for airlines. TA-wise, it's rejecting the 500 day MA on the daily and is looking week on the RSI and MACD. Price action suggests serious bearish sentiment in the short term. I also put up a Fib retracement from the COVID crash and it's lining up well. Basically this area being rejected is another piece of evidence for serious downside. Also an evening star on the weekly confirmed. Puts and shorts ?
Airlines landing once again?!Pandemic + jet fuel prices + selling pressure will take a toll on the airlines!
In these weekly charts, it is clear that major airlines already are in a Downward channel, and they will retest their previous supports which could be another 10-15% correction in the coming weeks!
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
$LUV #stock I opened short position . $nasdaqI opened short position because I observed that perhaps we will have reversal at this point due to the following reasons :
candle lower low from yesterday and it is already to move out from uptrend channel and shape another one eliot wave.
At previous trading channels the fibonacci is 98% accurate and I believe the stock will decline for a little at fibo supports or support lines either which are almost the same territories and the everyone here have gains at this bad days for the nasdaq.
Airlines have buyers at these prices!Looking at the trading volume you can see all Major airlines traded with above the average volume at these prices!
I think in the next 4-6 weeks they have the potential to gain +10%!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Airlines landing once again!On November 1st, 2021 I published an analysis for major Airlines, they experienced a +10% gain and start landing again!
And then I perfectly call the resistance:
they could become a long opportunity near their support lines!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Airlines have just find their supports!Most airlines' stocks reacted to their support level and some of them have just broken above the downward trend line..!
It seems Delta and United could perform better than others if there is a relief rally..!
A relief rally is a respite from a broader market sell-off that results in temporarily higher securities prices. Relief rallies often occur when anticipated negative news winds up being positive or less severe than expected. (Investopedia)
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.