Why I am getting very Cautious trading Long - Gold / Precious M
USDX has really fallen off a cliff this week & this lowering of the USD has been supportive of Gold & all at a time when Gold has been bided up a bit too much & making the Gold price overbought on the Stochastic's higher-time-frames.
With USDX and the Gold-price having an inverse relationship, my chart shows just how much the USD has been oversold this week on the important 4HR, Daily & Weekly Stochastics.
A strong cross-up on the 20 level could signal a rally in USDX soon, I tip it will rally next week if not before finding strength during late Thursday and Friday trading.
There is a tonne of economic news coming out today Thursday morning, will it be a mixed bag and what impact will have on the Gold price and USDX... We will know later.
Rsioversold
Bitcoin in megaphone pattern on its way upwards to $68kBTCUSDT has remarkably been respecting a slight megaphone chart pattern for nearly 6 months now since mid March 2024. It has respected the upper and lower trend lines of the pattern approximately 4 times each. Additionally, the rsi is also at the oversold bottom level.
Technical chartists usually say that price action is most important of all the indicators, and with such 4 time upper and lower pattern boundary respecting price moves the price action confirmation is strong. This coupled with the rsi, means there is opportunity for a swing trade with approx 25% upside.
Entry: $55k
Exit: $68k
Trade exit: $47.5k (to avoid major market event caused spikes downwards)
Note: The expected future fed rate cut should cause further buoyancy to price action. Furthermore, market events may cause spikes downwards, thus setting an automatic trade exit at $47.5 would avoid the previous downward spike level of $48 and leave a 1:2 P/L ratio. Therefore, allocating more than a max of 2-4% of a portfolio to this swing trade would not be advisable.
Bitcoin in megaphone pattern on its way upwards to $68kBTCUSDT has remarkably been respecting a slight megaphone chart pattern for nearly 6 months now since mid March 2024. It has respected the upper and lower trend lines of the pattern approximately 4 times each. Additionally, the rsi is also at the oversold bottom level.
Technical chartists usually say that price action is most important of all the indicators, and with such 4 time upper and lower pattern boundary respecting price moves the price action confirmation is strong. This coupled with the rsi, means there is opportunity for a swing trade with approx 25% upside.
Entry: $55k
Exit: $68k
Trade exit: $47.5k (to avoid major market event caused spikes downwards)
Note: The expected future fed rate cut should cause further buoyancy to price action. Furthermore, market events may cause spikes downwards, thus setting an automatic trade exit at $47.5 would avoid the previous downward spike level of $48 and leave a 1:2 P/L ratio. Therefore, allocating more than a max of 2-4% of a portfolio to this swing trade would not be advisable.
BTC Cup & Handle Potential Paths (1W)Forecasting some potential cup and handle formations for BTC using trend based fib extensions and trend based fib time. Assuming a .382 fib retracement, each handle assumes a local bottom at around a fib time line. Overheated oscillators provide some evidence that a short term pullback is in order before continuing BTC's bull run post-halving.
If we get a retracement lower than .382, then there's a relative volume spike in the volume profile centered about the .5 fib line that could realistically act as support. Although my understanding is that cup and handles are more bullish when retracement handles are no deeper than ~1/3 down from recent swing high path.
Looking way ahead if this plays out, i'd be looking for rsi to show negative divergence paired with BTC making macro higher highs as chances to take profit down the road, as is what happened last bull run.
Nikkei Hits Bear Market after BoJ HikeAfter a cautious approach away from its ultra-easy monetary setting, the Bank of Japan bolstered its normalization efforts last week. Policymakers raised rates to around 0.25% after the March watershed exit from sub-zero levels, pointed to more moves ahead and also announced sizable reduction in bond purchases.
This action signaled tightening resolve and also accelerated the Yen rebound, threatening to unravel the two key pillars of the stock markets’ rally to record highs. Along with broader recession fears after the US jobs report, JPN225 slumps into a bear market as it loses more than 20% for July’s all-time high and could be in for further losses.
On the other hand, the BoJ is still in accommodative territory and warned that could increase its bond buying if needed, while the broader market rout could push it back into a more conservative approach. Furthermore the rate differential is still huge and the carry trade may persist. From a technical standpoint the RSI points to the most oversold conditions in years and that could help JPN225 rebound out of bear territory and towards a cluster of hurdles that starts with the 200Days EMA, but significant sentiment improvement needed.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
USDJPY to Nearly 4-Month Lows on Shifting Policy DynamicsThe Bank of Japan followed a cautious and slow path away from the ultra-loose monetary setting after abandoning the negative rates regime and the yields curve control, in the historic decision of March. But price pressures persisted, wages increased substantially after the spring negotiation and the Yen was further devalued, forcing officials to step up their tightening efforts.
They hiked rates for the second time in this cycle, to around 0.25%, while pointing to more moves ahead if the economy evolves as anticipated. Furthermore, they announced a plan to slash their bond purchases, so that they will halve by Q1 2026.
After hitting 38-year highs at the start of the month, USD/JPY reversed course due to Japan’s FX interventions rising expectations for BoJ hikes and increased optimism around Fed cuts. The forceful action by the Bank of Japan along with the Fed opening the door to a September pivot this week, exacerbated the decline to the lowest levels since mid-March. The pair is now exposed to 146.47 and the shift in monetary policy dynamics can fuel further weakness.
On the other hand, BoJ warned it could increase bond purchases again if needed, while market pricing for three cuts by the Fed may be stretched. Furthermore, the rate differential remains wide and the favorable carry trade could persist. The Relative Strength Index is oversold and this can drive a rebound above the 200Days EMA (blue line), but 200H4 EMA (black line) looks much harder. Focus now shifts to Friday’s US NFPs which are becoming increasing important for the policy path, as disinflation is back on track.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
GALA — Oversold RSI, Local Bottom → 16% Upside PotentialGALA found a local bottom at $0.027 and printed a reversal candle on the daily chart. Additionally, the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator hit oversold levels.
Moreover, the crypto token performed well during Bitcoin's dip yesterday.
Therefore, it is likely that GALA will enter a bullish direction. The next resistance is $0.032, resulting in a 15%-16% profit potential.
Historically, the oversold RSI on the daily chart resulted in some pretty solid gains: Out of 62 signals, GALA pumped more than 10% in 82%.
Copper Breaches Key Support but Tech & Fundamentals FavorableThe commodity has registered a notable pullback from last month’s record highs and has now moved below the pivotal EMA200 (black line) and 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s advance. This pauses the bullish momentum and exposes Copper to the ascending trend line from the 2024 low and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
However, this region could contain the correction and multiple roadblocks follow, making the downside unfriendly, while the RSI points to oversold conditions. As such, we expect Copper to find renewed vigor and push towards 5.000 and eventually new all-time highs (5.200), with the fundamentals also being supportive.
The improved supply-demand dynamics have driven this year’s rally and can fuel further strength. There may be some risks in the consumption outlook, mostly form China’s property sector and the slowdown in the pace of EV adoption, but consumption for the metal is set to increase due to the AI revolution and the clean energy transition. At the same time, things don’t look good on the supply side, with major miners slashing their output targets for the year.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Brent Oil Slides Despite OPEC+ CutsOPEC and allies including Russia, have been implementing a series of supply reductions since late-2022, which have helped support oil prices and on Sunday they agreed to prolong those curbs . Around 3.66 million barrels (mbpd) of cuts that were due to expire at the end of the year were rolled over into 2025. The most recent tranche of 2.2 mbpd that would expire at the end of the month was extended into Q3 and will be phased of gradually after that. The decision keeps current total reduction cuts at nearly 5.9 mbpd and almost 6% of global output.
On the other hand, members will start tapering some of those curbs over a 12-month period starting in the fourth quarter and the detailed plan could hinder their ability to keep output lower, if such need arises. Furthermore, the group sidestepped the contentious issue of capacity, while compliance has generally been loose in the past.
Brent oil slumps following the decision, as output will start to go up from October, just as non-OPEC countries like the US keep pumping oil. At the same time, demand growth is expected to decelerate sharply this year. Optimism for Middle East ceasefire, along with poor China PMIs, also contributed. UKOil is now exposed to this year’s lows (74.76), although breaching those of 2023 (70.09) is a much harder task.
However, the deep output cuts by OPEC+ will lead to tighter market at least in the near term and this can continue to support oil prices. Furthermore, central banks are moving towards less restrictive monetary policies, which can also help. On the technical side, the RSI points to extremely oversold conditions that can contain the fall and give UKOil the opportunity to rebound. A return above the EMA200 (blackline) that would pause the bearish bias would need strong catalyst though and the upside is unfriendly.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
DAX Tests Critical Support after Hotter German InflationConsumer price pressures in Germany accelerated in April to 2.4% y/y, which marked the first uptick since December. Eurozone inflation meanwhile persisted at the same level (May preliminary due on Friday), while wages in the region increased in the first quarter. This has created some worries around the disinflation process and the central bank’s prospects for less restrictive stance.
GER30 extends its slide from the recent all-time peak into the third week as a result and now tests a crucial support area. It breaches the EMA200 (H4) threatening the 38.2% Fibonacci of its last leg up. This would pause the bullish momentum and create risk for deeper pullback towards the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but we are cautious around sustained weakness.
Recent European inflation data may have showed some persistence and European officials may have warned against back-to-back rate cuts, but the ECB is expected to become the first major central bank to pivot and slash rates next week. This shift towards looser monetary setting, along with Germany’s exit for recession, are supportive for the stock market. Furthermore, the RSI is oversold and if GER30 manages to hold the pivotal EMA200 and 38.2% Fibo, its bullish bias would be reaffirmed and could lead to new record highs.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
CRYPTOHOPPER WEBHOOK PEPEUSDT 45MIN RSI WITH CONDITIONS STRATEGYRSI Strategy with EMA and VWMA Conditions
Objective
This trading strategy leverages the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in combination with the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) to identify potential buy and sell signals for trading cryptocurrencies on the Cryptohopper platform.
How it works:
Buy Signal: A buy signal is generated when the RSI crosses above the user-defined lower threshold and the EMA (9) is above the VWMA (20).
Sell Signal: A sell signal is generated when the RSI crosses below the user-defined upper threshold.
Indicators Used:
RSI: A momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
EMA (9 period): A moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points.
VWMA (20 period): An average that also accounts for volume, giving more weight to periods with higher volume.
How to Set Up Alerts for Webhooks:
To create alerts that can be sent as webhooks to Cryptohopper, follow these steps:
Apply the script to your TradingView chart.
Click on the 'Alerts' icon on the right-hand side toolbar.
Choose the script from the dropdown in the 'Condition' field.
You will see two options: "Buy Alert for Webhooks" and "Sell Alert for Webhooks".
Select the desired alert condition.
In the 'Options' section, set the alert action to 'Webhook URL'.
Enter your Cryptohopper webhook URL into the 'Webhook URL' field.
Configure the alert message according to the format required by Cryptohopper.
Save the alert.
How Alerts Are Generated:
The script will continuously monitor the chart based on the conditions you've set.
When a condition for either a buy or sell signal is met, TradingView will trigger the alert.
If set up for a webhook, TradingView will send an HTTP request to the specified webhook URL with the message payload.
Disclaimer:
This script is for educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, and you should do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Roku Test with Destiny A 2 year Support trendline A Buy?Hi Guys. So i am always on the lookout for Macro trend setups, signs and opportunities. I believe ROKU is potentially in a position to take a nice swing.
This analysis is on 1 day.
Notice we have reached a Sloping Support trendline from December 2022.
We've had 2 touches previous that resulted in bounces.
Trendline theory states trendlines can stay intact for atleast 3 touch points.
Owing to the idea that our recent touch point is a solid area to take positions. Has a decent probability of a bounce.
On top of that we have the Blue horizontal trendline, which acts as an added layer of Support.
Incase the black trendline does not hold, this would be next lvl.
Stop loss/limit should be placed below trendlines based on risk tolerance. Small positions can have a larger % loss, vise versa.
Now to Support my theory of this buying a solid area to take positions.
I have 3 indicators.
RSI which is in Oversold conditions after 3+ months.
On top of that the momentum indicators MACD and STOCH. Are also oversold.
MACD is signaling a waning bearish momentum. As seen by the light red histobar prints.
We are looking for and eventually should see Green bars and a bullish cross. Which can bring in necessary demand we need for bounce.
Also STOCH RSI is below the 20 lvl, but crossing Bullish as we speak.
This must continue and a bullish cross ABOVE 20 lvl, will also bring in demand and help with bounce.
If we see bullish changes in the momentum indicaotrs, i believe there would be a even higher probability of prices bouncing.
So pay attention, be diligent and manage risk accordingly.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on ROKU in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
USD/JPY ⬆️ Long Trade Setup ⬆️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
Triangle pattern + RSI Signal
💲 Entry Point : 143.571
🟢 TP 151.922 🔴 SL 139.473
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
----------------
It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market
Paramount (PARA) Flirting with Historical Support, Time to Buy?Hi Guys. As usual always on the lookout for Macro trend setups, signs and opportunities. PARA seems to be in a position of low risk trade setup.
We have made it to a Historical Support level, where interactions here normally leads to bounces upward.
Please note however that previous history does not mean it is 100% probable that it will repeat.
HOwever, being in a downtrend for some time now. It is likely that there maybe DEMAND in this area. Its important to watch for signs of confirmation of Support.
This weeks candle may show signs. It is a Hammer candle printing at the bottom of a downtrend since January. Lower wick indicates buy pressure or demand.
Notice ABOVE we have a resistance trendline. Note if we bounce from here, that will be our area to watch. This resistance trendline has been dragging us down since April 2022.
We could also be attempting to form a double bottom.
Recently there is also an uptick in VOLUME, which can indicate support of the demand currently seen at this support lvl.
Ive added 2 indicators.
MACD shows that we have not reached ABOVE the 0 lvl in quite sometime. Hinting to the idea that eventually we will.
Notice also the presence of Bullish Divergence with MACD and price action.
Watch for the change in color of the histobars to light red. This will suppport the idea of waning bearish momentum. The presence of a bullish cross is also vital to watch for.
Now notice RSI. Our current RSI as indicated by orange circle, shows flattening of the RSI. This shows buying is stalling the sell off.
However, notice the rectangles highlighting previous flattening of RSI. There is a possibility of RSI continuing downward. An important sign for the RSI in my opinion would be if RSI can move above the resistance trendline. This thinking ahead, can coincide with breaking the Major resistance in price action.
Regardless of what happens, right now we are in a critical area and pushes for observation.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on PARA in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
SMH breaks above its updward, reversal likelySMH has gone on a wonderful tear the last year and has recently showing signs that it is way overbought and due for a correction.
From a 1W period we see that SMH has broken above year long upward trend.
This is a first for SMH to do over the last year
The ETF has gone through some notable contractions like from Aug - Oct of 2023. This occured without breaking above the trend.
RSI 20 is now also for the first time showing that it has reached above 70 in over a year.
We should expect a decent contraction or elongated pull back in time to correct fore this over purchasing it went through.
Tighten your stop losses to protect against downside risk.
Tilray approaching a swing trade and/or shorting opportunityNASDAQ:TLRY is approaching a resistance range and is at the top of a W pattern. It's rsi is also overbought above the 70 level. Volume is also trending upwards and has reached the level where the previous volume high (and price trend reversal) was.
The trading opportunity is around the 3 scenarios shown in the chart, with, due to the technical indicators mentioned above, scenario 2 and then 3 being the most likely.
Trading approach would be to wait until after the quarterly earnings are released and see if:
Scenario 1
The price breaks above the resitance range, apply a 3 day filter to ensure it's not a fakeout, and swing trade upwards to approx. $3.
Scenario 2
A more likely scenario, the price starts to decline and enter then enter into a short with a take profit at $1.60. Exact entry point for the trade might be difficult to determine, especially as the previous moves in price have been so explosive that there may not be an optimum tim eto enter, thus shorting would be a higher risk trade.
Scenario 3
Wait until the price reaches the support level since November 2023 (approx. $1.6) and enter a swing trade back up to the resistance range with an exit at approx. $2.5. To reduce risk, enter the swing with a combination of the RSI being at 30 and/or a 3 day filter to reduce the risk of the price breaking down from $1.6 to a new low.
Scenario 3.5
Same as scenario 3 but with the support level being around the DMAs and price range where the price movement faced some resistance on it's way up during mid-March 2024. A more likely scenario, the price starts to decline and enter then enter into a short with a take profit at $1.60. Exact entry point for the trade might be difficult to determine, especially as the previous moves in price have been so explosive that there may not be an optimum time to enter, thus shorting would be a higher risk trade.
NOTE:
Those with a risk appetite large enough may use the technical indicators mentioned in the first paragraph as enough of a comfirmation to enter a risky short trade:
Entry point: Now ($2.45)
Stop Loss: $2.70
Take Profit: $1.60
Risk:Reward ratio: 1:3
SMR approaching DCA opprtunityNYSE:SMR is approaching a potential entry point for the start of a DCA strategy for a long term hold.
SUMMARY
Wait to see where the price moves. Using a combination of RSI reaching 30 and the price falling to (with a 3 day filter) around $4 or if the price continues to fall then around $2 (another 3 day filter at this level too), begin entry with a DCA strategy. Alternatively, if the price rises above $6, after a 3 day filter, begin DCA. If the price starts forming a flag between $5 and $5.80, enter once RSI has reached 30 (for those with a higher risk appetite can just use the RSI as an indicator) or await a range breakout/down to either enter at the $4 or $2 or $6 level as described above with or without a three day filter.
The price was seeing exponential growth in the leadup to the latest quarterly earnings report and popped a few days after. However, the price has subsequently fallen back down and now seems to be forming a pattern.
It is unknown really what caused the price to jump. And there has not been any significant insider trading on the day (or lead up to the day) where the price recently peaked.
The company itself has a healthy balance sheet and debt/equity ratio. It is still in the growth phase as they build somewhat emerging tech (nuclear power is established but their approach to providing customers modular smaller power stations is unique) and a large part of their customer base is still a maturing market (power hungry data centres wanting their own onsite nuclear power source, particularly those now being setup for providing AI). The company's income statement reflects this as net income over the recent years remains negative and is also not showing an upwards trajectory.
With this in mind this would be a stock for a long term hold with a DCA investment strategy until, whichever comes first, either a total dollar figure invested is reached or the company becomes long term profitable (i.e. exits the growth phase).
With the recent price fluctuations it is crucial to not enter too early as due to the immature nature of the industry and company, the price also has a high likelihood of remaining at a low level for quite some time. However, a DCA entry opportunity is also forming based on one of the 3 of the more likely price trend scenarios described in the chart. Details on these are as follows.
Scenarios 1 and 2:
Wait to see which way the price begins to move and see if it falls to one of the two support levels identified, make use of the RSI to identify the optimum entry point. If the price falls to $4, add in a 3 day filter to see if the price doesn't fall further and likewise add in a 3 day filter if the price continues to fall from $4 to $2. If the RSI has reached 30, and the 3 day filter has shown that $4 or $2 were a support level begin DCA. If the price continues to fall below 2, halt the DCA to see where the price becomes stable and then restart once the RSI starts trending upwards again.
Scenario 3:
If the price begins ranging between $5.30 and $5.80, depending on risk appetite, begin DCA once the RSI reaches 30 or starts trending upwards. If the price breaks out above $6, then add in a 3 day filter to ensure the breakout wasn't a false dawn, and start the DCA investment independent of where the RSI is.
TSLA: Is it Oversold?TSLA shares have lost their most important support level, around $230, and we are getting close to our next support, around $206, and such a move was detailed in our last public analysis, the link to which is below this post, as always.
As we can see, TSLA shares have consistently failed to react around their support levels, showing great weakness, and so far, we don't see any reaction that would justify a recovery, or that could trigger a bullish move.
The RSI is at low levels, below the 30% line, while it lost the 50 and the 200-period moving averages – however, there is no Death Cross yet. What’s more, TSLA has been dropping, losing all of its support levels, without any sign of struggle. A typical crash.
It's a fact that the stock is well discounted, in oversold territory. Whether this is a reason for a bullish reaction is anyone's guess. The next big catalyst will be next week's results release. S ince we're approaching a critical support zone, and with the sell-off theoretically exhausted, this could be a promising turning point.
Another important question is for how long will TSLA remain detached from the broad market? The indices are clearly bullish, and they have been for a while. Tech stocks are performing well, and the M7 are looking great compared to TSLA.
It all depends on how TSLA is going to react now that it is close to the $206 support. Remember, always wait for confimation on the price. Any bullish reaction could trigger a short-term bounce to higher levels, the problem is that the mid-term trend is bearish, and it would be important to se TSLA breaking the 21 ema on the daily chart, along with the $230 resistance, to reverse this bearish sentiment. Only then, I’ll see a technical reason that could convince me of a better recovery – otherwise, we may see just a Dead Cat Bounce.
I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me for more analysis like this.
All the best,
Nathan.
Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction - W/C 11 Dec 2023Projected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $73.46 (Min) and $81.51 (Max).
Contended Price Levels
$78.10 - $81.60 High Volume Node & Resistance line - potential resistance
$76.00 Resistance Line - potential resistance
$73.46 Support Line - potential support
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Breakout:
The price is still below the 0.5 level with a resistance line and a HVN just below the breaking point of the 0.5 level. This will be a strong resistance level.
Volume Profile Analysis:
High Volume Nodes (HVM):
Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential resistance region. The price has stalled in this area over the last few weeks.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
Stoch RSI (Bottom Indicator): The indicator crossed over last week at the overbought level and hence the price decreased. But now it is in the oversold level and this could be a good sign.
MACD (Top Indicator): This indicator has maintained just below the negative region and has refused to move out over the last few weeks. I don't see it going anywhere this week. I believe it will stay for the next few weeks in the same range and may just provide a bullish signal for the short term.
Additional Factors
Prior Resistance ( Top Blue Line):
Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior resistance level.
The blue line that is diagonal across the price is a potential resistance line.
Prior Support (Bottom Blue Line):
There are two support lines just near the current price. Last week the price went near this support zone and found support and didn’t fall through. Both these two blue lines are prior support levels. The bottom support line is extended from the black box you can see on the chart from a prior chart pattern. These will be crucial levels of support and levels to watch if the price breaks though.
Geopolitical Events:
Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices.
Conclusion
Based on the projected price range and the various technical indicators and analyses, the outlook for Brent Crude Oil appears to be finely balanced. The delineated price levels, including resistance at $78.10-$81.60 and support at $73.46, suggest a narrow range of potential movement.
Technical analyses, such as Fibonacci retracement breakout and volume profile analysis, highlight the significance of specific levels, indicating potential resistance and support zones. The MACD and Stochastic RSI indicators imply a nuanced market sentiment, with the Stoch RSI currently in the oversold region and the MACD signalling a potential short-term bullish trend.
The presence of prior resistance and support lines further emphasises the importance of these levels in the market dynamics, while geopolitical events remain a crucial factor that could significantly impact oil prices in the coming week.
GBP/CHF ↗️ Long Trade Setup ↗️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
Triangle Breakout + Rsi Oversold
🟠 EP 1.10219
🔴 SL 1.09983
🟢 TP1 1.10502 ⚠️( Close 33% of the trade and Set the SL on EP )⚠️
🟢 TP2 1.10741 ⚠️ ( Close 33% of the trade )⚠️
🟢 TP3 1.10928 🔥 ( Final result)🔥
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
----------------
It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market
GAS/USDT ↗️ Long Trade Setup ↗️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
Triple Bottom + RSI OverSold
🟠 EP 7.725
🔴 SL 7.430
🟢 TP1 8.024 ⚠️( Close 33% of the trade and Set the SL on EP )⚠️
🟢 TP2 8.319 ⚠️ ( Close 33% of the trade )⚠️
🟢 TP3 8.609 🔥 ( Final result)🔥
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
----------------
It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market