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TMF

TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONGTBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT / TLT T Bill Inverse TreasuriesOn this daily chart of the ratio of TBT ( Treasury Bills Bearish ) to TLT ( the inverse Bullish) over time. This serves to accentuate shifts in prices from factors affecting them both but with opposite effects. Federal actions or even reports of economic data are some of those factors. This chart shows that about November 1st, TBT ad topped out and fell. They are inverses of one another . What makes one go down will make the other go up and viceversa. By February 1, TBT bottomed out and the ratio reversed. The cycle took 3 months. On a lower time frame, cycling would be more frequent. At present, it would appear to be time to sell TLT and / or buy TBT What applies to the TBT /TLT ratio would also relate to TMV / TMF as a ratio.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT Inverse Treasuries ( Long Dates ) LONGTBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a broadening channel ( a megaphone pattern) reflecting increasing volatility as federal action or inaction gets priced into buying decisions at treasury auctions. As for me, i will continue to build a TBT position until it is obvious that the fed has launched an active agenda of rate cuts which will fortify T-bill prices and make TLT the new runner.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TLT Treasuries Long breaks down under VWAP SHORTTLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023. Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time. Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20. Relative strength trending correlates with price . I conclude, TLT continues to be set up SHORT or alternatively TBT LONG . I will take short trades at weekly highs on a 30-60 minute chart until signs of a reversal are seen on the chart.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by AwesomeAvani
TLT- Are rate cuts postponed? LONGTLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern. Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value of existing bonds with the implications of a rate cut postponed beyond June. The faster RSI line has recovered to cross the 50 level lending further support to this long trade.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMF long trade setup 3X Bullish TreasuriesTMF on the 4H chart is set up at the bottom descending support trendline of a symmetrical triangle in the approach to the apex. Price appears ready to reach for the upper descending resistance trend line and the Echo Indicator ( Lux Algo ) makes that forecast. Current ambiguities in a rate cut soon upcoming will make values of Treasuries a complicated matter. I am taking a long trade targeting 54 with a stop loss at 50 in consideration of the triangle pattern. I have existing positions in TLT.
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
TLT Long at VWAP Bounce T- Bills 20 yearsTLT on the 15 minute chart in the past two trading sessions consolidated and then fell into a pullback to the support of the anchored mean VWAP. Relative volatility spiked and has now contracted. I see this as a good entry to add to my TLT position having sold a good portion of it three trading days ago when price showed topping wicks outside the fibonacci highest band. This will be about $ 1.00 cheaper than before that sale and is part of a zig-zag strategy for TLT overall.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMV Triple Inverse Treasury Bill ETF LONGTMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising. The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside. The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the relative volume indicator shows increasing volumes reacting to the price bottoming and accumulation underway. I see this as a long trade set up while recognizing that fundamentals such as interest rate adjustments and inflation data could impact the technicals.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
US10Y - Is it a "sea change" or a strong buy for TLT and TMF ?In December 2022, Howard Marks told in an interview that a "sea change" is underway in markets. When I have seen below charts of TVC:US10Y , I have remembered that interview: (Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U ) TVC:US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this long lasting channel has been broken at April 2022, and upper line of the channel became support at July and August of 2022. So there are some signs that it's not a fake going out of channel like the one in 2020 March. Does Howard Marks right by saying it's a "sea change" ? And in this weekly chart of TVC:US10Y , we can see it has formed a new uptrend in a new channel: (Maybe you can view the chart with /x/DHeM0t8W ) See how good it has used that upmoving support. Now, we are again hitting that support and if that support line is broken, it would be a "strong buy" for NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF . Both graphs have given bullish divergence recently: (Maybe you can view the charts with /x/2jGkJkCJ and /x/5NGqJ3Ze ) This week we will see if TVC:US10Y will break the channel and confirm the bullish divergence of TLT and TMF. If the support would been broken at TVC:US10Y , then 4.20 and 3.40 and 2.75 are the levels to watch for the bullish trend of NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF. In conclusion, if TVC:US10Y will break the channel this week, I'm long in NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF. If not, we will keep watching if Howard Marks was right and it's really a sea change.
TVC:US10YShort
by alikasapoglu
Impulse correction ?? - TMF pump 🚀📣 Hello everyone! I believe that in the next 3-5 months we can get a correction (growth - inverse chart) on TMF. The US 20-year yield of 5.388% on October 23 could be the medium-term maximum, or we are already very close to it. To do this, it is necessary to observe more, since the trend on the same TMF chart has not yet been broken. Be careful and keep a close eye on this. Target: 🎯 TP1 - $6.59 🎯 TP2 - $7.78 🎯 TP3 - 10$ Goodbye!
AMEX:TMFLong
by AnonymousTraderAcademy
2
TBT- a bearish treasury ETF LONGTBT on the 30 minute time frame shows a trend up in an ascending parallel channel now at the bottom of the channel where it could go up or breakdown and go under the channel. The ZL MACD suggests some bullish divergence while the dual TF RS indicator and the ADX oscillator are non-commital. The immediate recent short term volume profile with a POC line above price suggests a lot of trading above price and likely short sellers. A longer time interval volume profile shows the POC line more than $1.00 below current price. Price could easily gravitate in the direction of that price magnet. Overall, I see a bias for a bearish move and will watch this to confirm. i will play this with put options to leverge the amplitude of the move albeit at higher risk.
AMEX:TBTShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
TMV leverage inverse ETF for treasuries SHORTTMV on the one-hour chart tested two standard deviations above the mean VWAP in both late May and early July it fell to one standard deviation below VWAP but then rose sharply into beyond the two standard deviations line ( thick red ) ascending into a YTD high. I believe that this is due to the recent federal debt creditworthiness downgrade. The threatened rise of BRICS reserve currency and potentially adversely affects the value of the dollar ( DXY) while supporting gold prices. I see this as a good continuation play no matter the overextension of price. Both the dual MTF and the zero lag MACD however suggest a pullback. The mass flow indicator does as well. As a result I will look at TMF to go long trusting the indicators to give me a directional bias.
AMEX:TMVShort
by AwesomeAvani
TMF ( 3X Treasuries)beatdown completed reversal underway LONGOn the one-hour chart, TMF a triple ETF of long-expiration treasuries has finally completed its downtrend or ten days given more bearish momentum with the federal debt downgrade of creditworthiness as well as the rise of BRICS as a reserve currency. Three indicators show bullish divergence with a MACD cross under the histogram. The 30 minute RS line rising before the 2 hr RS line reacts and importantly a mass index signal rising into the reversal line and then a drop. While none of this is a Holy Grail, I am confident that the bias here is bullish. I will trade long if you are interested in the stop loss and targets let me know. If you would lke my idea of an options setup, let me know as well. If this idea is helpful, please like and subscribe. Trade well !
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMF Bull Treasuries Triple Leveraged LONGTMF as shown on a 15 minute chart shows TMF in consolidation at the beginning of the weeks followed by a downtrend when the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud with little buyers confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US Fed. The mass index indicator has signaled a reversal as the signal rose above the reversal zone and then dropped below the zone thus triggering. The Relative Trend Index documents the end of the downtrend with the signal line nearly returning above zero. Overall, I think this leveraged ETF overreacted to the federal news and the catalyst from Japan. I believe this to be an good point to enter long using the pivot low as the stop loss. Targets are 7.20 just below the mean anchored VWAP and 7.45 just below the lower boundary of the high volume area of the intermediate term volume profile. This offers modest potential profile for a relatively low risk.
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
TLT Short term Treasuries Bullish LONGTLT as shown on a 30 minute chart shows TLT in a narrow range last week and then a pivot down to begin this week followed by a downtrend and a small correction until then the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud bond auction with little transactions occurring confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US Fed. The mass index indicator has signaled a reversal as the signal rose above the reversal zone and then dropped below the zone thus triggering. The Relative Trend Index documents the end of the red downtrend with the signal line nearly returning above zero. Overall, I think TLT traders overreacted to the federal news and the catalyst from Japan. I believe this to be a good point to enter long using the pivot low as the stop loss. Targets are 100.5 just below the mean anchored VWAP and 101.5 just below POCl line volume area of the intermediate term volume profile. This offers modest potential profile for a relatively low risk. However, I intend to trade this intraday as a same day expiration (0DTE) option striking 101. I will set a set a stop-loss on the option of 15% while expecting potentially 50-200% ROI making for an acceptable ratio.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMF - Long Term Leveraged Treasury ETFOn this 4H Chart TMF has rallied in the past week about 9% as the reports of the impetus of inflation has diminished. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines are staying above the histogram which has not converted from negative to positive. The dual time frame RSI showing low 1 hour TF in blue and daily TF in black has the lower crossing over the higher both at the lows on July 10th and now both over 50 with the low 1 hour TF still above the higher daily TF. This confirms bullish momentum. Price is on a VWAP breakout ascending from the support of the 2nd negative mean anchored VWAP to above the mean anchored VWAP with a retest as well. Price is now above the POC line of the volume profile demonstrative the dominance of buying pressure over selling pressure. On the ADX indicator, a positive trend is rising while down trend is dropping proportionately with the intersection and cross occurring on July 12. Positive ADX is staying above 20. Overall I see this as an excellent setup for a long swing trade targeting 8.05 in the area of the values of the highs of June. A higher target would be about 8.3 where there were some recent pivots If the fed does an about-face and pauses rate hikes, a significant rally could ensue.
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
TMV Treasuries Leveraged 3X Short Inverse LongTMV is an ETF Shorting the Treasuries. On the 2H chart, price is rising as the treasuries are suffering value contraction while interest rates are steady or projected to rise. The chart shows rising volumes, upwards volatility as well as a PV Trend demonstrating trend strength. I see these all as confirmatory for bullish momentum. I will take a long trade into the next round of federal news. The employment data showing strength in new jobs and low unemployment will likely lead to another rate hike as the fed continues to try to beat down inflation and will not relent in face of those data pieces. CPI and PPI may add fuel to the fire this week and TMV may continue to rise.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMF 20 year 3x Leveraged Treasuries ETFTMF completed an uptrend from 3/28 to 4/6 and then a retracement of it. It is now positioned above the 0.5 Fibonacci level also the VWAP of the anchored multisession VWAP indicator in the fair value ( and high volatility ) area also near to and importantly above the POC line of the intermediate-term volume profile. This high confluence yields strong support for the continuation of an uptrend targetting $10.00 the pivot high this past February with a stop loss of $8.92. For those looking for a high reward entree with the requistite risk appetite a call option with a strike of $9.00 or $ 9.50 expiring 5/19 or 6/16 might be what is on the menu.
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani