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TNX

Very close to Yield Curve Inversion, AGAINAfter #InterestRates were cut people were expecting a furious wave of buying, this has not come into fruition. Recent events: 2Yr Yield rallied substantially. 10Yr #Yield bottomed when we called it, has not run as much as it's shorter term counterpart. We're close to inversion again! Colored areas = POTENTIAL Inverse Head & Shoulder = BOTTOM. Worth noting, TVC:TNX has a higher right shoulder. Further analysis: We are seeing a Negative Divergence on $DJI. Volume has been lessening as the days go by. TVC:RUT Small Caps are LOWER and trading in a tightening range.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Head & Shoulders pattern: 10 year yield could drop to 2.87%The series of tops shaped notorious Head & Shoulders pattern on 10-Year Treasury yield (TNX). The tallest peak is the Head and Shoulders are on both sides. The Neckline is the support that is built through valleys of the Head. The price has breached the Neckline this summer triggering the pattern bullish scenario. The target is calculated by subtracting the height of the Head (from top to Neckline) from breakdown point on the Neckline. It is located around 2.87%. Almost 1% down from the current level
TVC:TNXEducation
by aibek
🔜 20+ Year Treasury Bond Market. Perhaps This Is The End US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence. But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities sentiment, with the S&P 500 index halving its year-to-date gains. Indeed stock valuations are looking increasingly stretched, raising the risk of a correction. One such indicator in particular is flashing RED - the relative valuation of stocks versus the debt market. SPX / ICE BofA Corporate Total Return Index In August this year, the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX climbed to levels last seen during the peak of dot-com boom, relative to an index that tracks the US corporate bond market. The gauge is still holding near those highs, despite the recent pullback in equities. The metric last surged this high in the spring of 2000 — and that was followed by a multi-year meltdown in stocks that saw the S&P 500 crash 50% between March 2000 and October 2002. SPX 50% Decline During 2000-2002 Another indicator that shows the richness of stocks relative to debt is the so-called equity risk premium — or the extra return on shares over government debt, which is considered a safer form of investment. The metric has plunged this year lows unseen in decades, indicating elevated stock valuations. "Equity risk premium is near its worst ever level going back to 1927. In the 6 instances this has occurred, the markets saw a major correction & recession/depression - 1929, 1969, 99/00, 07, 18/19, present," research firm MacroEdge said in a recent post on X (ex-Twitter). The so-called equity risk premium (earnings yield minus bond yield) recently fell to a new cycle low and remains well below historical averages. In other words, the stock market has become more expensive relative to the bond market despite the recent pullback. Meanwhile the main graph (quarterly Div-adjusted chart for NASDAQ:TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) illustrates perhaps right there could the end for U.S. Govt Bond Market decline, with Double top as a further projected/ targeted upside price action. Will all of that bring U.S. stock market to 50% decline like in early 2000s!? Time will show!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:TLT
by Pandorra
40
Yields are in a do or die situationYields are pulling back a bit from the run they had yesterday. It was expected to have a bounce at the support levels. The 2Yr & 10Yr #Yield both look as if they want to settle a bit but time till tell . We will see how Yield reacts over the next few days. It is important as a crashing yield can mean higher prices all across the board in many assets. We've stated before that they CANNOT lower rates but at the same time CANNOT raise them. Seems as if they are playing around a bit providing liquidity to keep markets propped up a bit AND they may keep rates steady or just have 1 rate drop, before election. TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
it seems to start a new ascending rollyHi there, We gave you a buy position on yellow metal last week and it hit the SL but analysis and path prediction was correct. Anyway we are watching 2 similar paths on XAUUSD that both of them will finish with breaking the highest top price. 1. The 4th wave of 3rd wave of big ascending wave has been finished and we should buy again in support level such as 2300-2305 to above of 2450. It is more probably. 2. The 'a' wave of 4th wave of 3rd wave of big ascending wave has been finished and we will see the breaking lowest price of last week until 2260-2240 and after that price start to growth. Based on Eliot wave measurements, this has more chance. So what are you doing? We powerfully suggest you be patient and careful, firstly. if you have buy position please remain it until 2375 or 2290. We could above of 2375 buy again with the triger in m15 timeframe and sell it below of 2290 until 2265, 2252 and 2240 by trailing. We have 2 suggestions: 1. Buy it on 2302 +-2$ with TP 2380 and 2450 SL 2288 2. Consider to our XAGUSD analysis in trading view, because buying it has more worthy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by takeprofitwithus
Yields are still selling off after yesterday's dropLet's see how the TVC:VIX does over the next few days/weeks. Still think it eventually breaks its major support level, at least temporarily. The 2Yr and 10Yr are crashing and following yesterdays drop. TVC:TNX #interestrates, as we said, will likely be cut, even if a little. They will most likely be raised again next year. Not political... Anyway, since we have stated COUNTLESS times. They CANNOT lower rates but MUST lower them.
TVC:US02YShort
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
#Treasury Yields are they going to over 7% !!!Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction. Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining. The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline. This will have major consequences if the #Economy is unable to whether a higher cost of capital and Gives big money managers to park their money in a risk free asset and earn #yield treasury notes are any #bond with a less than 2 year maturation.
TVC:TNXLong
by BallaJi
Dire warning by $JPM CEO - We've been saying this for some time.Good Morning Update!!!!!!! The real #economy is NOT represented by #equities or other public investments. NYSE:JPM CEO has been vocal on what has been happening but this is his most dire warning in some time. Personally, am shocked this gets air play. --- #yield pumping a bit after "hotter" #inflation than expected reported. 2 things we've been saying for some time!!!!!!! Be in #stocks but, Have Hard assets!!! #gold #BTC #silver Pls see our profile for more info!!!
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC