US30Y
US30: Will Bears finally be able to take over? BLACKBULL:US30
Bullish impulse has continued to dominated the market with US30 touching all time high in today, showing some rejections on last three daily candles. However, what we anticipate is the $43200 region which remain a psychological level and there is massive selling opportunity coming up. Please do your own research before taking any entries.
Mortgage Rates Peaked?Mortgage rates are looking as if they are about to get another drop, on dally chart.
Daily not seen here. Please see profile for more information.
The monthly chart looks like a Head & Shoulder pattern. Interesting. Could we be seeing a huge drop in #interestrates soon?
Must keep an👀on this!
Why Central Banks Buying Gold & Institutions Hedging the Yields?While many of us celebrate the stock markets reaching new highs, central banks worldwide are actively purchasing gold, and institutions are hedging into treasuries and yields.
Interest rates are determined by the central banks whereas Yields are determined by the investors.
If you choose to lend or borrow money over a longer period, such as 10 or 30 years, you would typically expect to earn or pay more interest for this extended duration loan contract. However, currently, we are witnessing an inversion of this relationship, known as the inverted yield curve, where borrowers are required to pay higher interest on their short-term loans, such as the 2-year yield we're observing, compared to their longer-term borrowing.
2 Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
us10y and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further, read my post from april:
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it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed.
back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y.
as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going into the end of 2024.
i'm aware that jpow has mentioned in the last few fed meetings that he has no intention of raising the rates any further, but i'm seeing a significant development on many of the charts this week which tells me otherwise. so i'm calling him out on his bluff.
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us10y w5 algo = 6-9%
Short term rates still look weak while long term look betterHAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉
US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE.
This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of.
Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME
1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to weaken a bit more.
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HOWEVER, long term debt looks to be solidifying a bit.
The 10 & 30Yr #Yield look identical & both look like they want to bounce here. How strong? We'll see. Took small position on Thurs.
This could also be more of a technical set up as both are at support levels, 30yr is at strong long term support.
TVC:TNX #bonds
10 & 30 Year yields are at decent to strong support levelsThe 10 year & 30 Yr #yield are at support levels.
Looking at Daily charts:
The longer term, 30Yr, looks better than TVC:TNX (10Yr)
Looking at Weekly charts:
The 10Yr support level looks strongest @ 3.3%.
All sorts of support levels and trendlines were broken recently.
The 30 Yr trendline is certainly broken & Strong Support is found here.
GOLD can be a defensive asset, as geopolitical risks still highCaught in the twin grip of elevated US yields and a stronger USD, Gold may be on the defensive over the near term unless geopolitical risks still escalate.
Escalating geopolitical and trade risks are playing an increasingly supportive role in Gold prices, engineering rallies that are likely to stay high in 2024.
Gold Price Clinging to Highs Under $2'000. The bias remains bullish despite minor retreats.
A new higher high may activate further growth. Only a valid breakdown below the pivot point opens the door for a corrective phase.
The gold price resumed its growth today, reaching the $1,990 level.
The bias is bullish despite minor downside corrections. OANDA:XAUUSD returned higher even though the Dollar Index rallied after the US Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI announced expansion.
Gold has taken its position as a safe haven value asset. Over the past several years Gold trades on positive path, where short-term average (1yr SMA) still above long-term average (5yrs SMA) for a 6th year in a row, since Q1'18.
The main technical graph says, that potentially technical figure known as "Reversed Head and Shoulders" is in progress, with further upside price action in a case of return back, above $2'000 per ounce.
The main graph is for iShares Gold ETF AMEX:IAU that seeks to reflect generally the performance of the price of gold.
Never disregard those weekly & monthly closeSTHOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT.
Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends?
Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape.
Let's see how they close.
30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend.
#mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
TLT Got Reality Checked Harder Than 2016. -43%!
Every 40+ investor and a pair of eye glasses is pounding the long TLT! call options TLT!.
You sure about that? you sure you can handle 4-5 years of a complete dead TLT?
Federal Reserve seems to be only interested in bailing out banks collateral directly instead of starting YCC so the TLT traders "bond market is the safest in the world" has just completely took a nose dive.
The hope here is that WW3 starts / or JP Morgan blows up like 2009 but again do you think the FRED will allow that to happen? Not a chance. Bank Term Funding Program
10Y & 30Y Yield losing more steamGOOD MORNING!
#interestrates look like they want to slow down a bit, short term top.
We see the 10Y & 30Y pulling back a bit...
But this is better seen intraday.
We'll see how that unfolds...
IF IT DOES, it could cause a sharp rise in #Stocks.
Coincidentally, DJ:DJI @ support & TVC:NDQ is near a major support.
TVC:TNX AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ
Long Term Yields catching a bidGood Afternoon!
Long Term #interestrates are PUMPING today!!!
The 10 & 30 Yr have been struggling in this area.
They are currently forming a negative divergence. We'll see how that goes.
3Month - 1Yr haven't moved much.
2Year #yield is also moving. This is "good"! That means that the normalization of yield curve is not happening yet.
#stocks #gold #silver
FRED Are Done Raising Rates -- Raise Rates? Japan Collapses.
Japanese Currency Strength is back to 1987 levels
Japan is the main source of YCC for the USA buying down bond Yields
If USA raises rates any more Japan will be in free fall collapse (hyperinflation)
They need to pause at worst start reducing rates.
My guess?
Money printer is coming back and will come back fast to save the Yen, this is not just a "Asian currency" this is the single weak point for the entire US bond system if the Yen goes the US bond yields go ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Japan cannot tap out and raise rates, Japan cannot ditch the Yen and adopt the US Dollar, Japan is in some serious trouble here.
All Japan can do is continue to issue "Stimulus Packs" that is making the M3 go parabolic that leads to serious inflation. Now what happens when a country issues unlimited Stimulus Packs and cannot raise interest rates?
T-Bonds (US 30 yr); Wait for it!If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it!
In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in itself, ought to serve as a warning. (Yeah, they are known to be dead wrong, especially when it really matters.)
Add in (or don't!) the A.I.+ automation related speculative bonanza about long term deflationary pressures and the case would get even stronger for rates to peak at these levels.
Wait for signs of a reversal, though.
p.s. The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation! (I.e., T-Bonds alone will not save anyone.)
$US30Y - YIELD GOING HIGHER (REACCUMULATION)Bill Hackman is right, yields are going higher!
There have been discussions as to where the yield is going from here. We believe they are going higher based on the the current re-accumulation schematic.
This chart will break out and it's not a bull trap.
We could see 5.5%-6.5% rates.
NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICE
Why did I know that bond yields were going to fall?To obtain this information, we need to look at four things:
-Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy.
-US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor sentiment regarding the economy.
-US10Y (US 10-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds are also a key benchmark to evaluate investor expectations for medium-term interest rates and market risk perception.
-US30Y (US 30-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds provide insight into investors' long-term expectations for interest rates and confidence in long-term economic stability.
Monitoring these indicators can provide valuable information about the direction of interest rates, market sentiment, and the overall health of the economy.
If we observe these three together, we can see that the maximum point marked with a red rectangle, the US5Y, is the only one that violated that high. This suggests that the movement in the US5Y was a manipulation (liquidity pool), as none of the other bonds violated the high. Also, the DXY (US Dollar Index) did not violate it and has already created a lower low. This indicates that we can expect the completion of this move in the DXY and a more aggressive decline in bonds.
4-27-23 [us10y]hello,
here is one more layer of confluence,
to back up my spx case.
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to the untrained eye, this looks like total, nonsensical chop,
but to a space explorer, it can easily be viewed as a 3-3-3.
what is a 3-3-3?
glad you ask anon:
a 3-3-3, is a very corrective structure,
designed to kill time mostly-
labeled w-x-y.
wxy = double zig-zag
these channel nicely,
as portrayed in the image above.
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once this double zig-zag concludes into the summer time,
i predict the stock market will crash.
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enjoy it till then, and as always ---
this is not financial advice,
i am merely an artist,
bringing to you,
art.
4-19-23 [us10y]good eve'
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decided to update my primary today, to further align with the current states of the market.
my upside target remains the same, at 5.9%--6% into 2024, but i think we go slightly lower locally, into june before it pops.
summer time is historically quite bullish in the market, so a slight pause on rates to align with seasonality makes sense.
thanks JP,
your service is appreciated ♥.
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i got you an update if the structure changes.
✌
us10y 4-14-23gm,
called the top on the us10y last year as well.
(view post at the bottom of this thread).
swinging by to actually adjust my public bias, after a few recent discoveries.
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jerome powell explicitly mentioned in a few of the recent talks that the fed is going to raise the interest rates above 5%, and keep them there for some time.
what this tells me, is they're expecting inflation to tick back up - or they're taking the extra precautions to ensure that this indeed doesn't take place.
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what i am implying here in my count - is an extension to 5.9% (at the bare minimum).
this could mark a top, unless we pull back in three waves (the same we did from the recent top).
👇
US02Y: BOND MELTDOWN / 4.00% CROSS / MACD CONVERGENCE / RSIDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS.
POINTS:
1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with it's lowest 1% points.
2. Overlapping Orange Line represents ES1! a US Market Future.
3. Dotted Green Lines represent continuous downward momentum in past Bear Markets (2002 & 2008).
4. Bubbles overlapping dotted green lines represent initial break of supporting bond percentage %.
IMO: In my opinion the most concerning factor to take into consideration when it comes to current bond positioning is the STEEP RISE IN PERCENTAGE especially when the overall US market momentum is tied to BOND PERCENTAGE during both RISES & FALLS & the STEEPER THE INCLINE THE STEEPER THE DECLINE can become.
MACD: Notice a complete meltdown of Bonds when MACD confirms convergence to MEDIAN & eventually breaks past median and falls into into negative territory.
RSI: Notice that unlike in other recessions RSI levels have seen more consistent exposure to MEDIAN of 50. But as of lately from a MACRO perspective that is not the case as we have seen current RSI levels linger around 70 or above in EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY.
SCENARIO #1: In a very BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through a complete free fall.
SCENARIO #2: In a less BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through an extended consolidation phase with PERCENTAGE LINGERING ABOVE 4%.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
TVC:US02Y