WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Eyeing Potential Demand Zone RecoveryWTI crude oil is currently trading around $68.25 as of this Tuesday, following a significant gap-down opening to start the week. The move lower was largely influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East, as recent developments suggested a more contained military approach, which alleviated fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt oil supply.
Upcoming U.S. Economic Data: GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus
The U.S. economic calendar this week includes key data releases, beginning with the flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q3 on Wednesday, projected to show an annualized growth rate of around 3%. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure could bolster the USD, adding pressure to USD-denominated assets like crude oil, as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Following the GDP report, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will provide additional insight into U.S. labor market conditions, which could further influence dollar strength and, subsequently, WTI prices.
Technical Analysis: WTI Trading in Demand Zone
From a technical perspective, WTI crude is currently positioned within a demand zone, where buyers could be eyeing a recovery of Monday's gap-down. This demand zone represents a critical area where traders are observing whether buying interest will drive prices higher to close the gap. A recovery attempt here, with a tight stop loss, could offer a favorable risk-to-reward setup, particularly if data later in the week doesn’t significantly strengthen the USD.
Conclusion
The WTI crude oil market remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments and U.S. economic data this week, with a stronger USD potentially capping any recovery attempts. However, should the upcoming data align with current estimates or underperform, there may be room for WTI to rally from its demand zone, attempting to reclaim some of the lost ground from the recent gap-down. Traders may want to monitor these key levels and events closely, as they could provide both direction and confirmation for near-term price movement in WTI crude oil.
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Crude Oil WTI
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area at 67 (Wave "3").Dear colleagues, I believe that at the moment we have a great opportunity to find an entry into a short position that will bring us many pips.
The fact is that the wave “2” of the middle order is completed, which means that the wave “3” of the higher order continues the downward movement in the wave “3” of the middle order.
I expect the price to rise a bit more to the 78 level, then I expect the price to drop to the 67 level. It will not be a quick drop, but we will be able to go short several times.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
CRUDE OIL (WTI): When the Gap Will Be Filled?
I strongly believe that a huge Monday's gap will be filled.
The confirmation that I am looking for is a breakout of a resistance
line of a horizontal range on a 4H.
4H candle close above the yellow structure will indicate
the strength of the buyers and make the market finally start rising.
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USOIL - Key Levels for Bullish Stabilization or Bearish ReversalTechnical Outlook
The price may stabilize within the bullish zone upon a 4-hour candle close above the pivot line at 68.53, targeting 70.49 initially, followed by 71.78.
Bullish Scenario: While trading above 68.53, the price is likely to move toward 70.49 as the first bullish target, with 71.78 as the next level.
Bearish Scenario: A reversal and stabilization below 68.53 would open a move toward 67.03, with further downside potential to 65.85.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 68.53
Support Levels: 70.50, 71.78, 72.75
Resistance Levels: 67.03, 68.85, 63.51
Trend Outlook:
Bullish while the price remains above 68.53
PREVIOUS IDEA:
USOIL Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 69.00.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 65.47.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Final Resistance test before $77.50WTI Crude Oil hit today the 7 day Falling Resistance. A break above it will be bullish as that has been the case on 2 similar patterns previously.
We are ahead of a Golden Cross (1h), which on the 2 previous patterns, has confirmed the uptrend.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the Falling Resistance breaks.
Targets:
1. 77.50 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is printing a pattern similar to the September run.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Strong rebound on the Support. Buy.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL almost hit the Support A level and rebounded today.
This is the exact range where the price made a bullish reversal on October 1st and rose to a new Higher High.
Buy and target 78.00 (just under Resistance A).
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WTI - How will oil react to the elections?!In the 4H timeframe, oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. In case of rising due to increasing tensions, we can see the ceiling of the channel and sell in that range with appropriate risk reward. If the downward trend continues and the support range is broken, you can buy oil at the bottom of the downward channel.
Under President Joe Biden, U.S. oil and gas production has reached new records, and the outcome of the U.S. election is unlikely to significantly impact commodities like energy in the short term. Analysts at Capital Economics believe that the election result will have minimal influence on most commodity prices over the next few months.
However, differences in candidates’ views on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and foreign policy toward Iran could notably impact oil and gas prices over the next five years.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. economy is very resilient, expressing concerns over global inflation, spending, and the U.S. budget deficit. He advised focusing on the long-term interest rates in the U.S.
Solomon emphasized the importance of U.S. long-term interest rates and mentioned that the Federal Reserve will base its 2025 decisions on economic data. He also noted that geopolitical impacts on Goldman Sachs’ business are minimal but voiced concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Yesterday, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister announced that the country remains committed to maintaining a production capacity of 12.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.
In Q3, British Petroleum (BP) reported a net profit of $2.3 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations. This compares to $2.8 billion in Q2 and $3.3 billion in Q3 2023. BP shares have declined by over 14% since the start of the year.
BP is also targeting new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to boost oil and gas production. A BP spokesperson stated that the company will continue as a simpler, more focused, and higher-value entity. Other oil companies like Shell and Total are also preparing to release their quarterly reports shortly.
USOil WTI Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 US Oil has encountered recent selling pressure, which may present an opportunity for short-term traders. In this video, we’ll analyze the price action, evaluate the current trend and market structure, and explore potential sell setups if the price action unfolds as outlined. Risk Disclaimer: Forex trading involves significant risks, and market conditions can change unexpectedly. This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. 📉✅
Crude Oil WTI, final leg downWTI in the final leg towards long term support (62$). Around that price level, you can find multiple prior lows, the lower Mogalef volatility band, the YTD VWAP 3 SD band, and very oversold levels
Note that below that support level, there's nothing stopping the price from going down to the 43$ level, as very little volume was traded in the 40$ to 60$ range and there's no strong pivot points.
Please share your thoughts!
WTI, back at major order block support -- BOUNCE expectedWTI is currently sitting at below 0.5 FIB level on a weekly data -- a key area where most buyers converge.
$65-70 area has been quite a solid order block support. It has been tested many times and oil keeps bouncing up from this range.
A bounce is expected from current price range. Accumulation has notably started increasing at the present levels.
Spotted at 69.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard capital always.
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RELATED NEWS: Reuters
Oil prices settle more than 3% higher after China rate cut
By Stephanie Kelly
NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed over 3% on Tuesday on hopes for growing fuel demand after China's central bank lowered a short-term lending rate for the first time in 10 months, boosting crude prices after steep losses the previous session.
The rate cut is aimed at adding momentum to a hesitant post-pandemic recovery in the world's second-largest economy and biggest crude importer.
Brent crude futures settled up $2.45, or 3.4%, to $74.29 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.30, or 3.4%, at $69.42 a barrel.
#WTI Crude Oil 4-HWTI Crude Oil 4-Hour Analysis
WTI Crude Oil is trading within a falling channel on the 4-hour chart, currently finding support at the channel's lower boundary. This support level could provide a potential buy opportunity, especially if bullish momentum builds. Additionally, a breakout above the channel's upper resistance line would signal further upside, opening the door for more buy entries.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Falling Channel
- Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
- Support Level: Channel lower boundary
- Further Opportunity: Buy more if resistance breakout occurs
Traders may look to enter buy positions at the channel support and consider adding to positions if a breakout above the upper resistance confirms additional bullish momentum. Indicators like RSI for oversold conditions or MACD for bullish crossovers can provide extra confirmation before entering.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish breakoutWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a potential breakout level where the bearish momentum could drive it lower.
Sell entry is at 67.16 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 68.20 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 65.64 which is a swing-low support.
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2024-10-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Gigantic bear gap with Globex open and market closed 370 ticks down or a bit more than 5%. 1h 20ema is resistance until clearly broken. Bulls are in a world of hurt here. 66.5 is the next lower target before we go for 65. Bulls need anything above 68 again.
comment: Market has now went from doing 18% upwards, going down 14% and leaving two bear gaps open. The October low is at 65.74, which will likely be hit over the next 1-2 days and if it does not hold, we will test 64 again. Bulls need to break above the 1h 20ema and then 69. I don’t think they can get much higher than that tomorrow or I’d be surprised big time. Huge difference between bulls and bears on the daily chart, is that bear bars have big tails below and market is still going down hard. Bull bars close on their highs but bulls are getting slaughtered. Could be bulls who bought the 1st of October spike, scaling in and they probably have their stops either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. Either case, it will be interesting to see the market reaction if we drop below those prices.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Couple of ways to try to draw the bear trend line with the lows of the past 3 weeks but all are ugly. Bulls who buy this are probably scaling into positions and their stops are either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. If they can keep the market above 65 and quickly trade back above 69, there is a chance the lows can hold and that we have printed a higher low but those odds are bad after a -5% day. Best they can probably get is sideways movement between 66 and 69.
Invalidation is below 65.74.
bear case: Bears only got the market 80 ticks lower than the Globex spike, which is confirmation of this sell off. Their lower targets are the October low 65.74 and then the September low 63.46. We have an ugly bear channel with almost all bear bars having big tails below them, which shows buying pressure but bears are still selling this down hard. Which is a bit unusual I think. After such a strong bear day, follow through is expected and until bulls have clearly broken above 68 again, that price was decent to short today. For tomorrow I want to see if we have formed a tighter channel than the big one visible on the daily chart and if market is respecting an ema (currently the 1h held). I would not short below 67 but rather on pullbacks.
Invalidation is above 69.
short term: Max bearish. Can’t remember when I have last seen a 200+ tick futures gap that stayed open.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Selling around the EU open was ok once we broke below 68.3.
WTI CRUDE OIL: 1H Death Cross suggests another Low is coming.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.281, MACD = -0.560, ADX = 26.062) with the bearish bias evident as in the last 3 weeks the price is trading inside a Channel Down. The formation of a 1H Death Cross earlier today, draws comparisons with the October 15th one. Both price actions found a temporary support on the 1.382 Fibonacci level at the time of the Death Cross but the 1H RSI was rebounding on a bullish divergence. We expect the price to extend replicating that bearish wave and approach the 1.618 Fib eventually (TP = 66.00).
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USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go long on USOIL right now from the support line below with the target of 71.76 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general uptrend on the previous 1W candle and the oversold situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the lower BB band.
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USOIL BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USOIL pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 68.29 level.
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Oil prices may fall more than expected.I think Brent crude oil prices will continue to fall.
In the coming years, renewable energy could steadily reduce demand for Brent crude oil.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.