RIG (Transocean) – Potential Reversal?
Technical Overview
• Current Trend: RIG has been in a clear downtrend since September 2023, as confirmed by Dr. Elder’s Triple Screen framework. However, recent technical signals suggest the trend is losing steam.
• Weekly Timeframe:
The MACD histogram is showing a bullish divergence, indicating that the momentum behind the price decline is weakening.
Additionally, a falling wedge pattern has emerged on both the weekly and monthly charts—typically a reversal signal with strong bullish implications.
Entry Strategy and Price Action Expectations
• Daily Timeframe:
We are closely monitoring the $3.90 level. If the price holds above this level, it is likely to form a double bottom on the daily chart. A breakout above the wedge could trigger significant upside momentum.
Historically, similar corrections after bullish divergences on the weekly chart have produced gains of up to 90%.
Market Context and Macro Factors
Oil Market Influence: The price action in RIG correlates heavily with the broader oil market. With oil supply tightening due to OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Middle East conflict), the oil market could experience an upward cycle. These macro tailwinds may accelerate RIG’s recovery if confirmed by technical breakouts.
Conclusi on
If the $3.90 support level holds, and the double bottom forms as expected, RIG has the potential to align with the broader bullish trend on the weekly chart. With a falling wedge pattern and bullish divergence supporting the reversal narrative, this could mark the beginning of a new uptrend.
Potential Trade Setup:
Entry: Above $4.00 for confirmation of the breakout.
Target: 90%+ upside potential based on historical patterns.
Stop Loss: Below $3.80 to minimize risk. This setup offers a high-probability trade, provided the technical signals align with favorable market conditions. Monitor daily for confirmation and adjust your risk accordingly.
NYSE:RIG
Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal opinion and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice or an investment recommendation.