Fomenka

Fomenka

I've stopped my martingale bot and am thinking of going full blown short from around 63000. So far, the price has followed the outlook perfectly.

Fomenka

Remember the chart? Seems like it is going in the right direction. Crypto is definitely different from energy commodities. Bigger waves are more densely packed with subwaves resulting in higher proportion of abc/wxy to impulse waves IMHO.

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Meanwhile BTC might be indicating a disaster ahead. Nice running ABC flat may terminate right at the resistance formed by moving averages on different timeframes.

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Seems like something big is quickly approaching. I see a possible surge in energy prices and fallout of BTC.

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What I had previously maintained as an alternative scenario (green in my previous charts) has now become the base case (black). It assumes that wave (w), and possibly wave (x), have ended and that the price can now rise to new highs. The previous base case is labeled in red, allowing for some additional downside. Looking at 2H-4H charts, I tend to discount the...

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Seems like natural gas is ready to explode in 3rd of 3rd Elliottwave. Oil has similar sentiment despite being less obviously bullish. Natural Gas remains so far firmly on track and expected to rise with oil, perhaps on the Middle East escalation in the most nearest future.

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#Natgas In addition to Oil, Natgas also looks ready to explode in the 3rd of the 3rd wave.

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#Oil #WTI. Indeed, after some rekindling, I was able to reassess the previously green scenario as the most probable. Now I've labeled it in black. The chart could be indicating that a disaster is imminent.

Fomenka Updated 

We stick to our base case, which we've been tracking since January, the market may experience a significant retracement before resuming its upward trend. As previously stated, the market appears to have formed a double top with negative divergence against the RSI indicator, and after a modest bounce on Monday, it could fall to everyone's surprise.

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I'm leaning towards an expanding diagonal in WTI to finish wave (x). Reasons are 1) sharp sell-off on Monday, which appears to be a wxy double zigzag rather than a five-wave impulse 2) the subsequent bounce appears difficult enough for another double zigzag. Of course, I could be wrong about the bearish case, but I'm sticking to it so far, despite the fact that...

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This past week, the price gave us a hard time determining the peak of wave [ B]. Nonetheless, when compared to last week's update below, the outlook remains on track. I suppose we've just finished the predicted ABC zigzag in wave (Y), with wave A being an imperfectly shaped leading contracting diagonal and wave C being a nicely shaped ending expanding...

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The diagonal we identified last week has been confirmed. However, its fifth wave taken out the prior low, making some aspects of the previous scenario irrelevant. In the overall scheme of things, this doesn't change anything other than adding assurance to the scenario with a larger falling diagonal, which we began considering a few weeks ago.

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I started to assemble own ibrary of ElliottWave patterns and rules. Here simple zigzags occured in: wave W and wave Y of WXY double zigzag Zigzag 1 - wave W Wave A - leading diagonal Wave B - double zigzag Wave C - ending expanding diagonal ending at the top line of the parrallel channel Zigzag 2 - wave Y Wave A - impulse Wave B - double zigzag Wave C -...

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#WTI is now in sync with NatGas. Unintentionally, we arrived at a similar expected trajectory for both commodities. Mind the oversold RSI, the price being above moving averages and the lack of finishing pattern. That gives us some comfort that the trend is ongoing.

Fomenka

#Natgas The triangle we had projected as an option in the weekend update did not materialise. The price breached the guidelines. Reassembling alternative scenarios leads me to the concept of a diagonal. I showed the contracting diagonal, which is the most common, but an expanding one is also possible.

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Compared to the forecast we published two weeks ago, the natural gas prediction turned out to be 100% accurate. A comparison of the 1 hour charts is shown below. Though I was able to accurately predict the exact shape of the recovery from the recent low, I was uneasy about the longer-term outlook. On daily chart I repeatedly expressed my discomfort with the lack...

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The bigger picture remains ambiguous about what will happen when the price rises to around $83-85. The blue and black scenarios are concrete; wave should contain either a diagonal or an impulse. The green scenario is the least certain because wave b could be anything. However, given the time it took to get to where we are now and the growing disproportions,...

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Last week, the price performed exceptionally well against the outlook. The price formed (W)(X)(Y) with a distinct triangle in wave (Y) and rallied strongly. This occurred when the majority of other analysts, both technical and fundamental, became bearish, casting doubt on us as well. However, our Elliottwave technique proved to be superior at that point. We...