MattSzwyd

MattSzwyd

While the structure of my last prediction didn't hold up, I am still in the trade (though this drawdown has skewed my available risk for the time being). The pair's recent rebound from lows has revealed a potential new expanding wedge structure that seems to confirm my long-term bullish bias. If Europe finally gets its act together and limits the number of...

MattSzwyd Updated 

I haven't published anything in quite some time and I am about to go to bed, but this formation caught my eye. Good R/R here given the price action around the dotted S/R line. Too good to be true? Might be, but I'll take a clean 3:1 trade.

MattSzwyd

I'm taking a long position on GJ because I like what I see on the daily chart from a technical standpoint -- an inverse head & shoulders pattern that coincides with a breakout from the prevailing downtrend. What's more, the breakout has closed above the 50-day MA. All in all, from a technical standpoint there is enough evidence here to establish a decent R/R...

MattSzwyd

Recent price action suggests a break from the past several month's downtrend (in particular, a break in the trendline projection thatconnects points B and D in wave 4), which just so happens to occur at a critical point in the overall structure indicative of another large-scale impulse wave higher as price moves within a consistent and rather rigid parallel...

MattSzwyd

Nothing too complicated, just a general point of interest that may provide sufficient support for ETHUSD's next leg higher (at least until it hits trendline resistance). This trade setup does not assume a long bias just because the trade direction is "long" -- this setup assumes a buy-side broker, i.e. asset purchase through Coinbase / GDAX, etc. without the...

MattSzwyd Updated 

Do you remember where you were on January 15th, 2015? If you were a leveraged EURCHF trader then you certainly do -- it was on that date that the Swiss National Bank removed the 1.20 price peg from the currency pair. Unless you simply like to hit on 18 in blackjack, or you had inside information regarding the SNB's sudden decision to abandon the price control,...

MattSzwyd

Having forcibly rejected the 108 handle late last week, the prevailing trend of subtle HH's and HL's on USDJPY over the past month seems to be losing steam. Embedded within a prevailing downtrend, my analysis contextualizes this move as the final leg of a tripartite corrective structure closely resembling that of an expanding flat with a C with that comprises a...

MattSzwyd Updated 

While it would be optimistic to think that the cryptocurrency market slide in 2018 represents only a regular correction in an otherwise prevailing bull market, I don't think we're merely standing too close to the forest to see the trees here. We've all heard the common tropes making their way around social circles, StockTwits, Subreddits, etc. -- "maybe this looks...

MattSzwyd Updated 

I am currently short on a USDCAD trade with the expectation that recent price action will descend lower, retesting September lows near the 1.2100 handle. After retracing and rejecting 61.8% of the December 19 - February 2nd downtrend, price appears poised to fall lower on dollar weakness across the board. Stop is placed at 1.27150, right above resistance (point C)...

MattSzwyd Updated 

While the crypto market as a whole continues to bleed out with every passing minute, relief may be in sight. A slew of negative press this week out of South Korea, Brazil, and the Euroean Central Bank, as well as the closure of the now infamous "BitConnect" ponzi scheme (which, despite the many warning signs, effectively lead to a complete loss for many investors)...

MattSzwyd

We're less than a week away from the upcoming BTC fork, which (if history repeats itself) may provide the requisite sell-off and subsequent rapid buy-back to propel BTC above the 5800 level. (I have placed a warning sign on the chart to indicate when this is set to occur.) In the context of things these new highs are bittersweet --- the completion of wave 5...

MattSzwyd

Gold appears poised to ascend by means of a modified Schiff pitchfork, with additional fibonacci trendlines drawn (in purple) between the prongs of the pitchfork skeleton exhibiting significant influence on its upward move. Simultaneously, an ABCD pattern has the potential to form within the pitchfork in a fashion that mutually affirms both pattern parameters....

MattSzwyd

Over the past several years, EURJPY has been confined to a limited, contracting range that is wrought with impulse waves and sideways corrections. The current trend is no exception, forming two flags at points of structure drawn out from extended trend lines, thus suggesting a third bullish move may be in order. OBV and A/D indicators affirm the strength of the...

MattSzwyd

While I am happy to see the S&P portion of my portfolio reach fresh highs every other day, I have to proceed with caution given the way the market been behaving as of late. Yesterday's failed outside reversal was a major bearish cue, and the technical argument against continued S&P rally is sound. From the weekly, to the daily, to the hourly, we see confluence in...

MattSzwyd

After a bit of a publishing hiatus, I'm excited to publish an idea on a pair with so many signals pointing toward a potential reversal. I have overlaid the UCAD chart with the DXY (dollar index) to show the direct correlation between the two data sets, and how the dollar appears to be winning the figurative "tug of war" between currencies. As the USD begins toying...

MattSzwyd

It's a rather bold move on my part to publish a prediction just before the weekend in which we will find out the first round results of France's election. The consensus among retail traders is binary: either the EUR will rocket upward or plummet downward in response to the election of Macron or Le Pen, respectively. I would like to think that this mode of thinking...

MattSzwyd Updated 

While the USD has staged an impressive recovery in the past week, positive ADP figures coupled with lower than expected jobless claims paint the picture of an economy starting to run a bit too hot. While the Fed unlikely to hike rates any further than they have already projected in this calendar year, more jobs and a fast growing economy means inflation abound....

MattSzwyd

After a few weeks of struggle to break the 1260 level, XAUUSD has finally popped. Recent U.S. actions against Syria have stirred up an otherwise tepid market with a great deal of money moving into the "safe" assets. While gold has found its footing above previous resistance (at least for today, as we'll see what the weekend brings), every forthcoming detail...