RobBiddle

RobBiddle

Inverse chart of US 10 year bond yields. 6.249% looks like near certainty. 8%, 10% & 12% are all on the table.

RobBiddle

NVDA has formed a big nasty Head & Shoulders top. The target for the H&S would fill the the massive gap near $320.

RobBiddle

Inverse chart of US10Y Yield to show changes in Bond prices. Overlayed with the following: Fed Funds Rate US Treasury Deposits to Federal Reserve Banks Increase/Decrease Rate of change to Fed Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Total in separate pane below The USCBBS Percentage Change shows the money raining down :-D It's clear to see the relationship between the...

RobBiddle Updated 

Looking at Job Openings data, bear markets end when RSI is below 30, we've just now crossed below 50, we have a long way to go. I think Job Openings need to fall to roughly 1/3 of the current level to 3mil or so down from 9mil, which would still be quite a bit higher than previous bear market bottoms. Equity levels will most likely follow right along.

RobBiddle

50 & 100 Daily Moving Averages crossed the 200 Daily Moving Average. The 200 Daily Moving Average is curling upward. Price broke to the upside out of a Rising Wedge. Looks super bullish for DXY IMHO. Equities about to get wrecked?

RobBiddle Updated 

It's clear the mega-caps are the only thing holding this market up right now. The 50day SMA is acting as support for QQQ while simultaneously acting as resistance for the broader NASDAQ IXIC.

RobBiddle Updated 

Technicals: Each of the previous bear-market-rallies ended near the 0.382 retrace from previous peak. This is the biggest one yet and it is approaching the 0.382 retrace of the All-Time-High. I suspect we'll hit or slightly surpass 349.71 and then the next downtrend will begin. Fundamentals: PCE came in higher than the previous reading. The FED is not done tightening.

RobBiddle

QQQ has been strong. Pretty sure this is another Bear Market Rally. We broke up over the 100WeekMA. Volume has been declining just as rapidly. Looks somewhat similar in that regard to the August 2022 Bear Market Rally, right before we started dropping towards the Oct 2022 lows. Weak volume combined with extremely meh macro fundamental conditions leave me...

RobBiddle Updated 

The tides could be about to change. The bear market rally is fizzling out and SQQQ RSI is showing some Bullish Divergence.

RobBiddle Updated 

There's a gap on the SPX daily chart. If the gap fills it will put us right near the daily 200MA and complete a bearish Head and Shoulders formation, which would have a target down near the Oct lows.

RobBiddle Updated 

FED "pivot" hopes won't die. Bank collapses are "good for the stock market". AI mania has the meme market looking alive again. NVDA, a company in which both revenue and earnings have dropped significantly over the past 3 quarters, is trading at 150+ P/E and 25xSales with a $666Billion market cap! We're "back to normal" folks! /s I LOVE how this classic Market...

RobBiddle

Looks like a likely double top forming in QQQ. I think it's likely to play out as the double top target move down would also fill a couple gaps in the hourly chart.

RobBiddle

DXY just printed an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the hourly right on the .236 fib

RobBiddle Updated 

SPX ~2250ish by EOY 2024 would beautifully return us to monthly 200MA and nearly century-long lower trend line.

RobBiddle

Crash scenario if we get a real bear conclusion to this market bubble, i.e. major indexes bottom down roughly 40-50% from the top. In that case, here's how I think NVDA would fair as the market crashes. $28 by July 2024. Financial multiples (Price/Revenue, Price/Earnings etc.) would actually make sense if this were to happen.

RobBiddle

Public posts only allow 15min timeframe or higher. I created a Private post that shows what looks to be signs of reversal on the 5min timeframe. You can find it here:

RobBiddle

This is roughly where I think we are in this major bear market cycle. The index is hovering around the 50 Month TEMA and the DXY is having in a large shorter term correction. IMHO the market is vastly over-reacting to a single monthly CPI datapoint and there's a lot more pain yet to come. I suspect strongly that the 100 and 200 Monthly TEMA are still in play over...

RobBiddle

Picture perfect island reversal following higher than projected CPI figures. I'm thinking the bear market relief rally is complete. Bought a little SQQQ on Friday 9/9 which was a day too early. I think we'll have a strong downtrend in the near term at least until the Sept FOMC meeting.