UnknownUnicorn1156963

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Gold was a safety hedge in an uncertain world. There is no surprise we saw a massive sell-off with Covid vaccines being announced. Both vaccines are still waiting on final FDA approval. The real game-changer however could be Johnson & Johnson's vaccine which only requires one shot and no special refrigeration outside that already widely required for current...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Dollar bears love hearing that Joe Biden (if and when he takes control of the White House) will appoint Janet Yellen as the next Treasury secretary, making Yellen the first woman to hold the position. Traders see Yellen as a "dove", meaning she should be very accommodative and a strong proponent of rates staying lower for longer. Also, since she was formerly the...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Mixed fundamentals resulted in a flat trading last week. Stock bulls are betting on the coronavirus vaccines and rumors out of Washington that stimulus negotiations might be back on the table before 2021. Pfizer-BioNTech is expected to file for emergency use authorization with the FDA today, which is nearly 95% effective. That means vaccine distribution could...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

There is still no swing entry in SP500, but I feel we are getting close to it. Advance Decline Line and Insider Accumulation did an amazing job predicting all major moves. We want to wait till they speak again and hopefully, we will get divergence. For now, I focus on intraday and short-term trading. Based on cycles we can expect a rally this week. I can’t predict...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

It has been a long time since my last Soybean forecast. It is time to pay attention to this market. It is setting up for the decline. Commercials are heavily selling, the seasonal tendency is to the downside, and Insider Accumulation is turning bearish. So, if on Monday we get below Friday’s low, that will be a sell signal. However, it seems like it will take more...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Swiss Franc futures dropped as it was forecasted. I think the decline is not over yet. We can see a small rally followed by the next wave down. The 1.0700 range was strong resistance and there is a big chance it will be tested again. Commercials are still short this market, seasonal tendency is to the downside. However, Insider Accumulation is turning neutral from...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

I got a few questions about interest rates this week. Well, I don’t understand why people are waiting for some disaster in this market. Commercials are selling 10-year Nonets and buying 30 year Bonds. That means smart money expects that short-term rates are going to go down and long-term rates are going to stay where they are. This is a bullish yield curve...

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

Advance Decline Line has been one of the best indicators recently for SP500 traders. And again we have to watch it. I think we can see a very short-term rally (if the 4h trendline breaks up). If SP500 rallies without a similar move in the Advance Decline Line, it will set up a short entry. It seems to be a very possible scenario based on other studies: Cycles –...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Coffee reached our target at 120. However, there is still no signal the decline is done and we want to follow the trend. The support is broken and it makes me believe there is a big chance we can see a retest of important support/resistance near 104. So, if you still hold your shorts, consider adding trailing stops and let the good time roll.

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

The COT report is bearish, the seasonal tendency is to the downside. We have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, where do we sell? I think breaking below Thursday's low or formation of lower high would be good entries. 120 has been an important level for Coffee. It has to be tested again and it is our swing target.

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

I want to return to Sugar. This market doesn’t have a strong setup. However, there is a chance for a short-term trade. The seasonal tendency is to the upside. Besides, we have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, breaking above the trendline can bring us some profits.

UnknownUnicorn1156963

As we expected American Dollar rallied last week. The price forms Wyckoff accumulation on a daily chart. It makes sense to look for new entries when the short-term oscillator gets oversold. I got so many questions last week about DXY and most of them were like – ‘Why do you expect a rally if US data is so weak?’. Well, the dollar is not just a currency, it is a...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

It has been a long time since my last analysis of the Swiss Franc. This market is set up for a decline. The COT report is very bearish, our valuation model shows CHF is way overvalued. Cycles and seasonal and Intermarket forecasts show a potential decline almost till the end of this year. Everything is very bearish. Sounds too good to be true. We have signs of...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

Last week was hot for stock traders. As we discussed SP500 rallied a bit higher and was rejected. The Advance Decline Line did its job perfectly. I think the market can retest 3500 or higher and if rejected, we can sell for 3200. We still can see a big rally this year. Cycles and Fed Funds forecast indicate the beginning of an uptrend at the end of September....

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

You know I am a big fan of commodities and especially tight markets like wheat, live cattle, etc. These instruments are less manipulated and less speculative. Usually, they follow their setups very well. Getting above Friday’s high is potential swing entry. We have a triangular formation on the daily chart. Sometimes price makes false breakdown before the rally....

UnknownUnicorn1156963

SP500 broke to the new highs. Volume is still very low and the Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this rise too. It is bearish. However, there is still a lot of momentum in this market. Likely we will see choppy trading with upside bias till the middle of September followed by a decline till the end of the month. Pay attention we are getting close to elections....

UnknownUnicorn1156963 Updated 

We have discussed previously a potential rally in the American dollar. Now we are getting really close to the potential entry. However, accumulation is weak. That means it will take another week or two to get a signal. Accumulation builds momentum. That’s why it is so important. We have very strong fundamental setup for DXY rally: COT – commercials are heavily...

UnknownUnicorn1156963

We discussed bullish fundamental setup, but still no entry. There is a clear trendline on a daily chart. Breaking above is an entry. The most conservative traders can wait till DXY breaks and hold above 7 days high. It has been a long time since the dollar did that. So, breaking and holding above is sign bulls have got the strength to reverse a trend. The most...