discobiscuit

discobiscuit

Bull case on left, bear case on right. On the left, I think there are different ways to complete the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50, but for simplicity, I have just used a leading diagonal A, zigzag B, impulse wave C. From the low of 4963.50, it would appear that there are 4 distinct and overlapping impulse waves (with higher lows at 4991.25, 5022.25, and 5036.25),...

discobiscuit

For ES1! bears, I'm looking at a double-three correction from low of 4963.50, with an expanded flat Y, to complete below 5194.25. For the flat, 3 is shorter than 1, so 5 needs to finish below 5194.25. As such, this count is invalid with price above 5194.25. Price is currently between .5 and .618 Fibonacci price points on the correction, so bears are definitely...

discobiscuit

Comparison of BTCUSD and ETHUSD, bearish counts. Since their highs in March 2024, they both look like they are trying to form contracting diagonals (or wedges). For BTCUSD, it could mean an ending diagonal C to complete the flat. For ETHUSD, however, this would be a leading diagonal and would not make sense in the context of BTCUSD having an ending diagonal. The...

discobiscuit

First of all, this is not the prettiest C wave, but if you have the BTCUSD bottom in, then I think this is how you have to do it. Price action did not touch the median line of either pitchfork, and if that remains true, price action should turn back up towards ATHs. I would like to see price get above 62390.01 to rule out a diagonal C wave to have more confidence...

discobiscuit

Watching UVIX break through its low of $8.37 this morning gives me confidence that market top is not in. The most bullish scenario now would see four separate impulse waves (in blue ellipses) since low of 4963.50. Pivots at 5022.25 and 5036.25 were both technical, bouncing off .618 fib levels. Bulls need to advance above 5200 with continued impulsive action, and...

discobiscuit

What an amazing chart... I have wave (1) peaking in December 1999, wave (2) completing a zigzag ABC in March 2009, wave 3 ending in November 2021, wave (4) triple-three ending in November 2022, and wave (5) likely complete in March 2024. Parallel channel connecting waves (1), (2), and (3) provided (along with Fibonacci) strong support for wave (4). MSFT could go...

discobiscuit

Current micro-primary count for YM1!. Working off premise of impulse wave down from 40358 to 37463, corrective double-three bounce off low with zigzag W, X, expanded flat Y. Count valid with price above 37866, with median line of pitchfork as target.

discobiscuit

BTCUSD still looks like a regular flat, just with a prolonged, elaborate, and extended C wave. Wave (1) of C is circled in the red ellipse, wave (2) appears to be an expanded flat (green ellipse). Wave (3) appears to be still in progress, with more downside likely, in my opinion. Corrective price action in the blue ellipses appear to be zigzags, and so are not...

discobiscuit

Price action in orange ellipse appears corrective, and in that light I feel more confident that the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50 was a complete impulse wave. From here, I see two possibilities: the bullish count (green) would have us at or near the low of today, with a move back up towards 5154.25 to complete a (B) wave; the bearish count (red) would have us...

discobiscuit

Comparing SPX on the left with UVIX on the right. If UVIX double bottom can hold price above 8.37 and SPX can break below price of 4953.56, I find it highly probable that the top of equities is in. If UVIX at any point breaks below 8.37, then any breaks of SPX below 4953.56 would like be dip-buying opportunities. If UVIX breaks below 8.37, then it is also possible...

discobiscuit

ETHUSD looks like it's trying to form a (leading) contracting diagonal, which would be a very bearish development. A median line tag above 2399.81 would complete the pattern.

discobiscuit

I have altered my primary count to what I think is more accurate in terms of the largest wave structures. Area in orange ellipse was the "free money" wave (5) of iii, wave (4) that preceded it being a very rare (and incredibly bullish) running flat. For wave v, I have my bullish count in green and bearish count in red. There is a five-wave structure to complete...

discobiscuit

This count has primary wave 1 peaking in October 2007, wave 2 a zigzag down to March 2009 low, wave 3 peaking in September 2018, wave 4 an expanded flat bottoming in March 2020 (COVID-19 low), and wave 5 peaking in January 2022. This would complete a full impulse from ATL to ATH. After January 2022 (which would be wave 2 of largest degree), I have what looks like...

discobiscuit

If NQ1! has topped for primary wave iii of v, the top of 18709 tagged the 3.618 extension of i from ii and, at the same time, it tagged the 5.618 extension of (1) from (4). From a technical standpoint, it's a beautiful finish. I would think that 11806.25 would hold as support, but technically wave iv can finish anywhere above 4884.

discobiscuit

Side-by-side comparison of ES1! and NQ1!. I'm proposing that both have impulse waves down from their ATHs to the lows of last week. Areas in orange ellipses show ES1! holding its low and NQ1! breaking its low. I'm interpreting this as evidence that each bounced off their lows with corrective structures, ES1! with a regular flat and NQ1! with an expanded flat....

discobiscuit

I think that if one is to interpret the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50 as an impulse wave, this is the best way to do it. Wave 1 of the impulse (orange ellipse) is a contracting leading diagonal. The proposed ES1! impulse wave down correlates nicely with NQ1!'s price action (NQ1! has an expanding leading diagonal in its impulse wave). If the impulse wave from...

discobiscuit

My count has wave 5 of 5 of primary wave 3 complete, primary wave 4 projected to complete towards October 2022 low of 10484.75. I'm looking at 11806.25 to be support for primary wave 4. Area in orange ellipse ends of being an expanding leading diagonal 1 of 5 of 3.

discobiscuit

Working primary count has impulse wave from ATH at 5333.50 to 4963.50. Area in orange ellipse is suspect, so if this count doesn't play out, will likely need to go back and tease out this price action. Corrective bounce off low of 4963.50 appears to be an ABC zigzag. Looking for another impulse wave to complete a C wave or a 3 wave.