GBPUSD had a false breakout, increasing probabilities of a breakdown.
1.25 is the critical level to hold. Daily close below 1.25 will increase likelihood of the pair touching 1.23
Technical analysis:
Obvious divergence in the 4H TF
Hidden divergence in 1D TF
Liquidity grab completed
If price does not close (in 1H TF) below 1.0813, high probability price move up towards 1.10
Fundamental analysis:
Post ECB meeting pushback on rate cuts in April 2024, analysts still expect rate cuts in April. Euro pushed down initially but...
Seems like a Bullish Consolidation for the pair. RSI divergence evident.
AUD is stuck between a risk on environment is US equities and weak data from China. Though I feel AUD wants to move higher as US bullish environment trumps China weakness.
Thoughts?
Breaking 1.10 has been a challenge for the EURO so far.
Two contradicting chart patterns are developing:
1. If you ignore the wicks (which I don't do), there is a clear bear flag pattern developing.
2. Alternately, if wicks are taken into consideration a bullish ascending triangle patterns can be identifies.
I personally feel that the EURO wants to push higher...
