taylorsan

taylorsan Updated 

Watching the weekly momentum for a trend break from bearish on the weekly. If it breaks, we are going to trade like quad 4, where: 1- equities broadly won't like it apart from low beta defensives like Utilities 2 - Yields should fall, so it's long US treasuries 3 - Gold should catch a bid Let's see.

taylorsan Updated 

Putting aside the macro view here (bullish) and market structure (bullish) are we consolidating for a big move north? Momentum has fallen away for now and while still positive is pretty low, and may be returning. Long at the moment, but looking to add on confirmation or drop on failure of the triangle.

taylorsan Updated 

Inverse head and shoulders? Irrespective gap above to be filled. Neutral for now.

taylorsan

Economic set up says 'probably' despite all the transitory chatter e.g. Infrastructure and EVs all create decent demand pull. Back end of the year could smell deflationary, but that is really only because of the difficult comparisons from a super massive reflation. ie everything will look like a slowdown. If she goes I'd expect a little back test and maybe even...

taylorsan

We will be transitioning out of the regime where growth and inflation are accelerating into the back of the year. Has gold made a run for it early? Given the monetary debasement and negative real rates not too surprising. Personally I'm remaining neutral but have a very small options exposure for later in the year. Let's see.

taylorsan

Given that is where we are headed (quad 3 or 4), I 'll be looking to build a position here. I'll specifically be looking for a momentum swing on the oscillator as a signal the regime turn is happening, or in fact in.

taylorsan

I'm still bullish Financials, for now at least. Macro data is still showing growth and inflation rising (quad 2) but we will run out of runway on that as we move into 2nd half of the year proper. Momentum is still to the upside, and may have bottomed for now. Also, we are rising on lower volumes last couple of days. Let's see.

taylorsan

While the debate between inflation vs deflation continues, I'd prefer to focus on the data and the price action, We've seen a lot of inflation in the data, which has been reflected across the commodity complex. The 2 laggards have been Coffee and Natural Gas. Now this may well roll over as growth slows in Q3 (mathematically it has to)..but given another CTRL -...

taylorsan

Weekly chart worth noting. Looking for Coffee to melt up through 2018. suspect we saw cycle lows at Dec 2017 Huge bull pennant. Bullish Divergence on RSI and MACD? DSI of only 20 on 9th Feb 2018

taylorsan

I'd wager a retest of the 'Chaos' line shortly

taylorsan

Bull Pennant? Needs news

taylorsan

Like the look of this on the daily. News and we test that 3.6p fib

taylorsan Updated 

Is the downward trend from latter part of 2016 now confirmed as completed 20/12?

taylorsan

Price consolidating before news?

taylorsan

Gold could use a weekly close over that important $1220 region, above 20 and 100 weekly MA's

taylorsan

Silver could close for the weekend over 20, 50 and 100 weekly MA's

taylorsan

Been sat on this curve idea since mid Jan Supporting points: 1 - Not seeing too much defense of dollar 2 - FOMC hold of rates 3 - Trump administration public comments re BOJ and currency manipulators I'll just leave this here and see how it plays out