Where does the super cycle stops?The GOAT is thinking that we are at the end of our lifetime's super cycle. SPY will top up at or around 600 (if not at 550). From there, there will be down-turn for the rest of 2020s. NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE!by GoatOfWallStreetUpdated 6
$SPY April 9, 2024.AMEX:SPY April 9, 2024. 15 Minutes. After the fall, sideways as expected. AMEX:SPY has retraced 61.8% of the fall. Buy is still above 525 only. Need to close above 200 averages in 15 minutes. As all moving averages are near in 15 minutes I expect a onesided move today based on open. If break 517.5 I have a target of 512-513 levels and ig cross 520.5 then the target is 523-524 levels. 512 is approximately 61.8% retracement for the move 509 to 524 as marked in the chart and 522-524 is channel mid and top respectively.Longby RiderTrader115
S&P500, How we doing? Still lower than 2001 Dotcom burst.Hi, 1PERCENT here. It is important to notice that currencies in the world all lose value over time. It converges to 0. The median home price went from $20K in the 1960s to $385,000 today. The house did not change obviously. But your currency value decreased. Why is that? You gotta understand that the whole system is built on debt. To learn more about it, definitely check out Mike Maloney's Hidden Secret of Money documentary on YouTube. Now, that you are aware of that, let's look at this comparison chart between S&P500 as you know it, and S&P500 inflation-adjusted (using US CPI) Quite different right? It took 2648 days for the market to get back at ATH after the Dotcom Bubble, but considering the inflation, it actually took more than 6000 days . We are now over 230% from the top of the Dotcom Bubble, but actually only 83% when considering inflation. So how about S&P500 measured in Gold, that history has shown over and over again as "True Money"? Well it is the main chart of this post. We are NOWHERE near the Dotcom Bubble top, and getting rejected at the resistance level formed since the burst of that bubble. Now, we are sitting at a crucial trendline that acted as support since 2011. Once we break it, bad things can happen. If you are a stock-only investor, you can think of this as an incoming opportunity to load on your index fund at a much lower price (when measured in gold) than it is today. That's it for today. 1PERCENTShortby RVD_1PERCENT2
Trying to find divergences in oil sector .... Trying to find divergences related in the oil sector .... by JoaoPauloPires220
Silver bullish break out, mid 30s target, 50-60 potentialIts taken a long time, but silver has finally shown life toward the upside. Bullish moves in silver have taken 8-10 years in the past to fully play out. If 2020 marks the beginning of the bullish move, then this move could last until 2030. Bullish head and shoulders pattern could target silver to the mid 30s level. If silver shows continued strength, then the 50 level will be a simple target for investors to eye and aim at. Macro news is the concerns of geo politics and delayed rate cuts due to higher inflationary costs. Flight to safety is good for precious metals and inflation concerns make metals attractive as a inflation hedge. Longby optionfarmers115
Timing the market. IWMWhat we know? Oil is likely bullish in 2nd Half (24'). BTC leads the small caps. TNX usually works as a head wind (and has took a pause). Rate cuts are very bullish for small caps and financials benefit in this environment? technically; the 20dma works as a driver. 50dma and 200dma just gives you context. You can add MACD to confirm things. Im speculating that small caps breaks out in mid April. U can fact check using IWM/SPX.Longby citsvarUpdated 1
$ARKK - Wyckoff Sign of strengthLooking for continued consolidation within this zone above 46, and a retest of the range highs. This would confirm a partial decline and statistically favor a breakout of the range. Id look at this as the sign of strength, as we have diverged from the bear market downtrend, made a new high locally after a second higher low, while maintaining support above a historical inflection zone . Above 55, id look for a pause at 65, and then continuation to 78 for the 1618 extension, and 89-98 for the measured move and equilibrium. Longby TradingNomadic3
If you are a losing trader and want start winning read this ... If you are a winning trader this is not for you . This is for the losers who want to be winners written by a former loser , who has become a winner as what is probably his last post . I am just starting my trading journey ( 5 years in now but that's nothing) . I used to publish all my trades on TV which actually really helped me to follow my strategies and it sort of made me feel like if I went against my rules you would all see but I have passed that period ,and now, have come to the realization that less outside noise is better ( for me , you do you ). That being said, I just wanted to give one ,potentially last, update on my current stats and maybe just maybe help someone that struggling to get to the being consistently profitable trading stage . First some stats and my path to date .... 2020 covid crash , decided I was going to trade for a living after making some money from trying to buy covid lows and then taking a udemy course , overall I lost close to half my 28k account by end of the year lol . 2021 I did my best to not suck , still lost money but I never stopped and invested hundreds of hours to try to figure our what i was doing wrong 2022 , bear market , but I came out slightly ahead , early 2022 I still had problems following my rules too .... 2023 my best managed account did 44% , my buy and hold less important account did just under 100% my all assets under management gain was just under 20% . 2024 , I am up a small amount , AUM something like 5% up at this time . Also day trades have been consistently profitable for over 1 year as well but that is a very small account at this point . I am constantly improving this is a lifelong journey . I am not bragging and I know my results are nothing compared to some peoples accounts growth levels. But I wanted to give you the basics and personally, I don't care about other peoples accounts, all I care about is MY results and MY path to consistently winning , and you should be the same . Basically I am managing risk right now , I have not gone against my strategies rules for over 2 years , and I have some strategies that are working for me showing me gains that I built and believe in and will follow unconditionally . By the way, the last time I did go against my rules was Feb 24th 2022 where I lost 4.21% of my account in one day . I actually printed that days IBKR statement out and I will keep it for years. We must always follow our rules . Anyways , you are reading this because you are losing money and have doubt and I want to help a bit with that . Everyone's path to consistent profitability is different but here's what helped me . I am short term though so know this ,and I don't hedge whatsoever . 1) Fundamentals are not important , well they are kind of important , but price is #1 , fundamentals don't pay you price does . 2) Your core beliefs are probably the most important thing you have and you get to build them but they can also be wrong , so keep an eye on consistent winners in the market who hardly lose , they should help you form yours , but never just copy someone . You are basically a baby in your losing years so you should choose your mentors wisely , what's there annual performance and downdraw ? pick mentors that have good stats , pick winners to teach you . 3) We are unique , you need to put in years to find out what strategies you want to run for your whole life but once you are happy with a Strat I think you should keep it going its a representation of something you built in your path , believe in it , be proud of it, after all, you built it ! Also, you need to build your own strategies they should be somewhat original to you ... 4) Trade the trend , not your opinion , its ok to have an opinion but if the trend is what you use to trade with not what you think . Random made up example , The news and sentiment is negative , economic indicators even say we are now in a recession ... then the market goes up and gives YOUR system YOU built a buy signal , you buy it without a second thought ..... 5) Winning is a choice , you can even win every single month if you really want to , you get to choose . If you are losing all the time you are actually choosing to lose in some way shape or form . We do get to choose how we trade and thus we can certainly manage trades and risk in a way that plans for so much failure that we simply do not lose . Yes, of course, you will still lose trades, but, you can go month to month with no losing months on a consistent basis , this is a fact . I have only just started to figure that one out to be honest..... for me the key was scaling up and trader selection is still necessary which goes hand and hand with screen time . I actually don't recommend scaling up at first though , I do believe in it but its transaction heavy and too much for someone starting out , its too much for me lol and I have 5 years of order management behind me . 6) You suck , yep you do , realize that and plan success into it . Realizing you suck but making plans not to is all part of the process of consistently winning in the market and often life ... 7) Do only 1 thing , focus on being good at it first and then after a decent amount of history and muscle memory you can branch out . I like to think of it as mana ( anime fan here ) , you are basically a young magic learner , your journey is long and your just starting , you can't do complex spells yet and if you do you will fail , and probably die lol focus on getting good at something simple first and don't rush it . 8) I make all my money from trends and the stronger the trend the easier to make money , I buy late all the time too if the trend is super strong , way after conventional buy points . I think buying late is not for everyone , lost me money when I was starting out but with a proper gameplan that's where the " winning is a choice " part comes in . 9) Don't look at profit % or $ , look at everything in R , What are you risking on a trade ? That's R. 1R is one risk . You should always risk the same on every trade . The trading view Long or short position calculator is really an awesome tool for this . I am always surprised to find long time traders that size trades without it . You probably shouldn't be risking more than 1%. I think 2% is too much . This is probably one of the most important points , use R for everything . And if you become a successful trader and your account grows massively you can manage more and money while conditioning yourself to think in R vs $ 10) I back test new prospective strategies back 14 years if I can use the daily chart or if its a lower timeframe I go back many months . This process takes weeks as I am also building rules and methodology . Then I live test them all while still recording data/results . The process takes a minimum of 6 months till use real money . If you cant do this you don't deserve real money and I know a lot of pro traders say they think paper trading is no good because your emotions are different and you need something on the line , IT'S COMPLETE BULLSHIT. Paper trading is a process my emotions are exactly the same with paper as real money I want to refine the process and know exactly what to do and when and a successful strategy , for me , takes at least 6 months . Then the live strategy is started with a fraction of what I have dedicated to it , and is rewarded with more money for every month of gain . That a sure way to manage your capital that will not lose your money if it works . And when you build these strategies , keep in mind you only have so much time , so are you willing to run the strategy till you die ? I believe that you should be willing to and so what's the rush ? 11)Ok last thing if you made it this far ..... Here is a simple way to manage trades that WILL make you money overall , especially used in trends ...having said that you need to risk the same per trade vs account or your fucked. lol Here's the process , modify to your liking but this WILL make money .... 1) your strategy has a trigger ( could be a close under 21 ema ) 2) your strategy has a signal ( could be first close above 50 sma, 10 ema , and 21 ema) 3) you buy , stop loss at 1R loss first thing you do , and you do immediately . 4) you place another order to sell 1/3 of your shares at 2R or 2 times your risk above entry price . 5) once you sell at 2R in profit ( assuming it works , you move your stop loss to break even ) 6) you use something you choose as an exit for the 2/3rd of shares you still have ( a close below the 21 ema would be a good area in my opinion ) . Ok last thing . Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Then the following month read it again , and then several months later read it again . And you get my drift . Re read the best books and that's one I've personally bought 3 times because I like it so much even as a gift and I only have just started to re read my trading books but I think that is also important . We don't need 100 trading books , we need one to five that give us good core beliefs and then we need to keep reminding ourselves and continually reprogramming our brains , re reading books that like stans are the equivalent of defragmenting our brains imo. Good luck being a winner , never give up ... Educationby NAK1987446
SPY sideways until Mid-April and then we move down...SPY sideways until Mid-April and then we move down after hitting resistance at 528. 50 day moving average will bounce it back up and then down to 200 moving day we go. Shortby grumpa062
Bull Flag with Corporate BondsCorporate Bonds continue in their Bull Flag Channel. Bond market keeps telling us that the Fed cannot remain higher for longer. Not sure on timing, however, it wouldn't surprise me if we see the Fed reverse course in the some what near future. Longby grumpa061
Active SPY Weekly outlook. 2nd WK APR 2024 (FREE SAMPLE) Active SPY Weekly outlook. 2nd WK APR 2024 (FREE SAMPLE) > BULLISH 📈 Closed Price: 518.43 Target Price: 523.07 Upper Range: 542.41 Lower Range: 503.73 Longby putIQ1
Bullish Falling Wedge continues on TLTBullish Falling Wedge continues on TLT. Inflation Data is screaming higher for longer, however the Bond Market continues to "prophesy" a Pivot from the Fed. Does the Bond Market see a massive Bank Failure Event in the near future?Longby grumpa06114
DBC is on the verge of a breakout on the monthlyDBC is on the verge of a breakout on the monthly. First upside target 🎯 and resistance is $25.91. This price target is a confluence resistance level with upper BB. If price breaks through that resistance then next upside 🎯 is $30.Longby JK_Market_Recap0
Opening (IRA): KWEB May 17th 24 Monied Covered CallLooking to get a fill on a monied covered call in KWEB (IVR/IV 12/33.2) while I wait around for some (or any) vol to show itself in the broader market. That IVR isn't great, but I'm going small so that I can potentially add at more favorable strikes/share cost bases should an opportunity present itself. It's pre-market, so bid/ask is somewhat wide on both the shares and the short call, but I'm looking to buy a one lot and sell a -75 delta call against for around 26.09 in order to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, have built-in short call defense, and to take advantage of IV skew on the call side (it's 39.4% at the 24 call strike; 32.4% at the 24 put). On a side note, the on margin variant of a Plain Jane short put isn't paying spectacularly from a dollar and cents standpoint: the May 17th 24 short put is paying .37 at the mid, which isn't anything to write home about, but that would be on a BPE of 6.72 (5.51% ROC at max; 2.75% at 50% max; 23.63 break even) should you want to go the standard short put/acquire/cover route. Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares/Buying Power Effect: 23.09 Max Profit: .91 ($91) ROC at Max: 3.49% ROC at 50% max: 1.74% In all likelihood, I'll have to "penny up" if I don't get a fill for 23.09 ... .Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 3
Opening (IRA): TLT January 17th 83 Short Put... for a 1.55 credit. Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. Unfortunately, when I started laddering out, a March cut was on the table, but that has been pushed back to at least June and possibly September, so I probably got a little bigger in the position than I originally anticipated. That will resolve itself somewhat as shorter duration rungs fall off via take profit or roll-out (probably the former).Longby NaughtyPines0
Teeessss$$$$llllaaaaa long 🚀I've just now started scaling in to this TSLT position. In NASDAQ:TSLA it could be, that with a double-bottom the price correction is finished. Along with some fundamental news I'm very bullish on Tesla - so let's see where it goes. ;)Longby p49172
XBI eyes on $87.87 for support: Biotech due for a bounce?Biotech is still near its Covid lows. This etf is about to test a key level. Expecting a bounce here, lets see. $ 87.87 - 88.99 is the immediate support. $ 79.23 - 80.50 is the next strongest support. $ 93.15 - 93.21 the first major resistance above. =========================================== by EuroMotifUpdated 444
S&P Bounce IncomingI'm feeling like we are going to see a continuation of the uptrend that was formed on Friday morning. I'm hoping for 522-525 retest. Longby Premium-Flippa5
Forecast of the U.S. RecessionCurrently, sqqq looks okay to buy Take a break from the stock marketLongby JungMinNewUpdated 3
#BlackMogulSocietyQQQ is a great way to crete a portfolio that is diverse and has assets in multiple classes that help hedge against potential losses. I recommend any initial investor or overall investor to put. Capital into the ETF.#BlackMogulSociety Follow my pod cast on Apple, Spotify ,Anchor ,#ChaseForbesExperiment .by MOGULVision0
SpyHeading in to April The market cycle is upside down.. Usually you see a small correction late Feb- March from profit taking of the holiday rally Nov-Feb. April is usually bullish then its Sell in may and go away. Monthly Candle are outside Bollingerbands on Spy, DJI, and NYA. NYA is the most extended. NYA moved the most closely with IWM and Financials. Go to your monthly chart. Now go to NYA and place your bollingerbands; Scroll back the last 20yrs and look at the following month after being that extended. A correction occured to pull price back inside bollingerbands. Now thats the technicals, but like i said April is usually bullish and Earnings kicks off with banks and cylicals. So if we push through bank earnings without a pullback then i doubt one will come until May. Heres NYA/NYSE daily chart.. east uptrend here with No bearish divergence, 18,500 next stop so I'll be looking for a move to 18,500 this week or top of channel Here's Dow jones daily. 40k incoming then a pullback to support or 39,200 IWM chart. Closed over 210 friday. Most likely 214 this as long as price doesnt close below 209 on any pullback. Short at trendline resistance . Any close below 209 is bearish, short back to 206. Qqq 4hour chart Price basically consolidated all last week.. channel Support and 20sma is at 440-441 , so any thing below that is bearish , other wise they'll buy this up 2hour close up.. long over trendline resistance . Short below 440. 441-445 is chop Spy 4hour chart Middle of the channel Similar to NYA. Early in the week price could go either way. Long over 525. Below 523 , 521 is incoming. I dont think price will drop below 520. Daily candle finished bearish thursday but PCE and dovish Powell could negate that and price could rise instead. Bullish scenario, price pushes pass 525 then we head to channel top or 530 before pulling back to 518 or 20sma As far as the tech sectors SMH and XLK both tested there 21ema last week and bounced so dont be surprised if Tech leads the way early. Price in the tech sectors look similar to Qqq, Coiled and consolidated.. lets see what happens.. by ContraryTraderUpdated 181838
Uranium Slingshot Cheetah Pattern Incoming!!I have identified 3 different types of similar variations in URNM and URA ETFS which show us that we could be in a cusp of a huge explosive move to the upside. These shakeout patterns are almost identical to each other with the same behavioural patterns before a big move to the upside. 2 humps which are almost like a H&S pattern followed by a huge flush down to break the upwards trend then bouncing off the 200 DMA with a complete reversal to the upside. All of this is happening at the same time we are bottoming on the URNM/UX1! ratio with huge positive divergence on momentum indicators Longby AxeCapp113
Real estate market bouncing backMy prediction on DRN is that it’s going to break out to 78 range and go on the upside to fill that imbalance.Longby Mytradertalk1