Bitcoin daily down trend reversal, shaping weekly higher low
Context:
Monthly – Uptrend (UT)
Weekly - range, potential setting of higher low (HL). Last week value moved just a bit lower comparing to preceding week, which signals down movement exhaustion
Daily – broken downtrend (DT). Last two days (Saturday-Sunday) are inside bars within Friday’s range (two days balance)
Microstructure:
Two days with excess low (1st and 4th Aug). One day with excess high (2nd). Excess high looks weaker.
Conclusion: high probability of daily DT end. Good confirmation of this scenario will include either of the following:
1. Bullish break out from two days balance, price acceptance (daily HL is set)
2. Bearish failed break out attempt from two days balance. If bearish break out is successful and price moves below 28,700 this will cancel proposed scenario and open door for daily DT continuation
Once daily HL is set, likely scenarios are:
1. Short term side movement with top at 30,000 and bottom at 28,600
2. Confirmation of daily uptrend translating into setting of weekly HL with potential to start weekly UT (going back to 31800 and above)
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
Monthly – Uptrend (UT)
Weekly - range, potential setting of higher low (HL). Last week value moved just a bit lower comparing to preceding week, which signals down movement exhaustion
Daily – broken downtrend (DT). Last two days (Saturday-Sunday) are inside bars within Friday’s range (two days balance)
Microstructure:
Two days with excess low (1st and 4th Aug). One day with excess high (2nd). Excess high looks weaker.
Conclusion: high probability of daily DT end. Good confirmation of this scenario will include either of the following:
1. Bullish break out from two days balance, price acceptance (daily HL is set)
2. Bearish failed break out attempt from two days balance. If bearish break out is successful and price moves below 28,700 this will cancel proposed scenario and open door for daily DT continuation
Once daily HL is set, likely scenarios are:
1. Short term side movement with top at 30,000 and bottom at 28,600
2. Confirmation of daily uptrend translating into setting of weekly HL with potential to start weekly UT (going back to 31800 and above)
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
Comment:
Bullish break out attempt on Monday night, no follow through. Reversal scenario is still valid if price finds acceptance within last balance value. Otherwise, look for downside.
Order cancelled:
Reversal scenario invalidated.