I've been doing running updates on BTC since I declared my last attempt to short fairly close to the high. Read these in the post below.
The conditions for a break now look much more likely.
Here's a series of things suggesting BTC will now see at least 40K.
Click on each of the below for more info:
The Heiken Ashi trend has continued to develop. We've made the "Bart". BTC closed last month with a bearish engulfing candle, and if selling under there now. I don't think there's been any instance of that in the last 7 years it didn't go lower (Though don't quote me, I just quickly scanned).
As shown in the main picture, the butterfly continuation pattern has failed. When this fails, it often leads to much weaker action under the 1.61.
Here's a previous post talking about the potential for a sharp fall if this break is made. We've dropped 5% since making the break currently.
The recent action would support the Elliot wave 3 break thesis. With all that choppy action being a wave 2.
Note, when there's a reversal like this wave 2 often looks a lot like a bull flag in real time.
60K was a big level. Although I was personally very bearish, I could see the general merit in different types of bull forecasts there (Using things such as the bull flag etc. They were valid patterns, these patterns are just far from infallible and also appear in break patterns). Now the break is made, bulls are playing the knife catch game.
Sometimes you try to catch a knife, it ends up being a sword and you lose a hand.
A lot of reason for bulls to be cautious now.
The potential for a much bigger break is now much more obvious.
The conditions for a break now look much more likely.
Here's a series of things suggesting BTC will now see at least 40K.
Click on each of the below for more info:
The Heiken Ashi trend has continued to develop. We've made the "Bart". BTC closed last month with a bearish engulfing candle, and if selling under there now. I don't think there's been any instance of that in the last 7 years it didn't go lower (Though don't quote me, I just quickly scanned).
As shown in the main picture, the butterfly continuation pattern has failed. When this fails, it often leads to much weaker action under the 1.61.
Here's a previous post talking about the potential for a sharp fall if this break is made. We've dropped 5% since making the break currently.
The recent action would support the Elliot wave 3 break thesis. With all that choppy action being a wave 2.
Note, when there's a reversal like this wave 2 often looks a lot like a bull flag in real time.
60K was a big level. Although I was personally very bearish, I could see the general merit in different types of bull forecasts there (Using things such as the bull flag etc. They were valid patterns, these patterns are just far from infallible and also appear in break patterns). Now the break is made, bulls are playing the knife catch game.
Sometimes you try to catch a knife, it ends up being a sword and you lose a hand.
A lot of reason for bulls to be cautious now.
The potential for a much bigger break is now much more obvious.