Vanillasagna

Vanillasagna Updated 

SPX is breaking down in a big way yet again... From the October lows the S&P has formed another rising wedge (in orange) again, reaching the top of the resistance trendline from ATHs and the 200 day SMA again - only to be rejected again... Clean view of Moving Averages - 200SMA in purple rejected yet again (50sma, 100sma, 200sma) VIX daily chart bottoming...

Vanillasagna Updated 

SPX is breaking down on the daily timeframe - after tagging the top of the resistance trendline from ATHs and breaking the rising wedge, as well as (today) breaking the red horizontal levels from the May 2022 highs (similar to the Dec '21 and Mar '22 tops running stops on the previous swing high) At the top (Tuesday of last week) - SPX also perfectly tagged the...

Vanillasagna Updated 

One to watch in the coming days... In the past a break down of these VVIX/VIX trendlines is generally followed by a market crash. VIX measures the short-term volatility of the S&P 500 index, whilst VVIX measures the volatility of the price of the VIX. In other words, VVIX is a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index and alludes to how quickly market...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Various possible scenarios on BTC and key levels to watch in the coming weeks... I am leaning bearish into the remainder of 2022 (or at least the majority of the year into fall) - i.e. immediate bullish PA will be followed by longer-term selling imo. Bear flag / rising wedge pattern (in red) - the lower limit of which is being tested again today as US...

Vanillasagna

Chart self explanatory. Projections for next BTC cycle (macro PA leading into and after the next Halvening) - based on previous macro cycles. With fractals (2017 in purple) (2020 in blue)

Vanillasagna Updated 

Today SPX has broken out of the falling wedge on a closing basis. Coupled with massive bullish divergence on RSI. Tomorrow's close will be key - I am hoping we don't give back today's move and paint a (bullish) fakeout. Downwards momentum has been slowling lately with price action tightening to form a falling wedge over the last 2.5 months down, and volume...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Oil continues it's upwards trajectory. Oil is approaching the yearly highs and about to retest the 2018 high (76.88). If we break above this level I believe we will reach $100-$105ish level (seen in 2011-2014) in the not-so-distant future. Daily timeframe view below - broken out of the daily descending channel with strong momentum and indicators reset of the...

Vanillasagna Updated 

If SPX breaks out here this could lead to a YUGE move up - potentially as high as 5000 into end Q1. Divergence is present with flat SPX (~4700 ceiling) over recent weeks - with a rising VIX & VVIX. This is mostly due to macro headline risks such as FED increasing tapering to end in March 2022 rather than June 2022 and uncertainty regarding Omicron variant....

Vanillasagna Updated 

SPX and the US markets have become extremely extended in the last few days/weeks and a pullback is now a little overdue... Of course we could remain in overbought conditions for a while longer but I believe we see a pullback in the next two weeks. Here's why: Daily chart (above): Daily TF has become overbought on various indicators - RSI is 76 (blue on RSI...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Apple has broken out of the ascending triangle on daily TF - after 1.5 months of consolidation - no big selling appeared into yesterday's close and bullish price action was observed (+3% on the day). However Apple also sits at resistance of the ATH trendline from Sept '20 and Jan '21 highs - if it breaks above this TL I expect bullish continuation. Using the...

Vanillasagna

Silver is coming back up off the yearly lows and has painted an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern which is now breaking out on the daily timeframe. This has been triggered in part by yesterday's US Inflation rate data (YoY was 6.2% - the highest annual pace since Nov 1990). Similar price action can also be observed in other inflation hedges such as Gold and BTC...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Gold is coming back up off the yearly lows and getting close to a breakout on the daily timeframe. Look for a break of the channel top from August 2020 highs. Target is 0.618 fib - $1920's

Vanillasagna

Gold cup & handle pattern of the last 10 years is nearing a break out... We have had enough inflation and more to come for another multi year bullish move in gold. Target - $2800 in next 5 years See previous idea for smaller timeframe price action - looking for a move above $1920's and ideally $2000 (2020 high) to confirm breakout

Vanillasagna Updated 

NAS daily channel and 100 day MA holding. A bottom may potentially have formed. Indicators have reset and support longs (RSI, Stoch, MACD). DMI is about to cross bull on daily TF. This is a cleaner and larger TF view of idea previously posted yesterday using 4hr chart - much more detail in previous idea below: NAS has now correct 8.5% - comparable to other...

Vanillasagna Updated 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the bottom is in for US indices here - arguably a little premature - but here's why: 4hr structures are finally breaking out - with the first higher highs in a little while now printing today. Plenty of bullish divergence present similar to March and May 2020 bottoms (see below). This after having bounced yet again off the...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Oil continues to push higher and has broken out of the recent descending channel with strong momentum and indicators reset on the daily timeframe. Should retest the 2018 highs (76.88) again shortly. This time it may even break through and continue marching higher... Looking at the weekly timeframe - if we do break through the 2018 high, I am thinking we will...

Vanillasagna Updated 

Chart self explanatory A comparison of BTC bull markets in 2013/2017/today in terms of duration (day from BTC halvening to peak), and price movement with fractals and also fib level comparison with 2017 bull market This is the second published version of this chart - now with both 2013 and 2017 fractals - latest developments in price seem to fit with 2013...

Vanillasagna Updated 

BTC has today broken through the 0.618 fib retracement level from the spring/summer pullback I'm now looking for bullish continuation upwards - although waiting/hoping to see the 0.618 fib level hold. I'm already long / holding BTC. TP1 - $57,500 - 0.786 fib retracement level TP2 - $59,500- retest of last lower high on 10th May 2021 4hr time frame shows bull...