Bitcoin: 60K Test Or Higher Low?

Bitcoin has retraced but not back to the 60K major support which I wrote about in my previous article. Instead, it is in the process of establishing a higher low along with a bullish pin bar (see arrow). The current candle has taken out the high of the pin bar which can be interpreted as a signal for a swing trade long. IF momentum takes hold, it is within reason for price to test the 69K area resistance in the coming week (see illustration on chart). The key to capturing such a move is to WAIT for the current candle to close to effectively measure risk.

What IF the current candle does not follow through? That scenario can be interpreted as a continuation of the corrective structure means the 60K support test is still possible. As I regularly remind my followers, this is NOT a game of forecasting the future, it is about identifying possibilities and WAITING for the market to confirm which path IT wants to take. Markets are HIGHLY random which means scenarios on both sides of the market should always be considered.

In terms of the bigger picture, as long as price stays above 60K, it maintains a broader bullish consolidation. This price structure serves as a higher low which means there is a greater probability of a higher high to follow in the coming months (break of 73K?). A greater chance does NOT equate to a guarantee or a high degree of certainty. This is why RISK must always be measured carefully.

How do we define risk? Using the current bullish setup as an example, one way to measure risk is to consider the pin bar low at 62,405. IF price takes this out and closes below it, the swing trade long idea is cancelled out. IF you are long from the 63,905 entry (pin bar high) then you are looking at approximately 1500 points of risk. You then have to consider this amount relative to your account size. For example if you have a 10K account, and you buy the equivalent of 1 coin, you are looking at 15% risk which is TOO HIGH for one trade. Typical risk should be around 2% per trade which means you should be risking ONLY $200 on 10K. You have to adjust your position size so that if you get stopped out at 1500 points, you only lose $200. Which for this example would be something like .125 of a coin.

Risk can be gauged on many magnitudes and another thing to keep in mind is the risk on the monthly time frame. IF the 60K range low breaks some time next month for example that can signal a broader correction is likely to follow. Such a move can lead to a test of the low 50Ks which would be more attractive levels for investing. Again this is NOT something to "think" is going to happen, the market NEEDS to prove itself one way or the other. This time frame expresses a TON of risk for those who are investing heavily at current levels.

When we first enter this game, we usually come with a lot of preconceived notions, "logic" and warped expectations as a result of consuming too much internet propaganda. When your emotions mix with this misinformation it is a recipe for the herd mentality. When you react to everything you see and hear, you are being motivated by greed and fear which means your outcomes will be no better than random. To start on the right path, tune out everything else and focus on learning how to assess RISK using technical analysis. If anything you will at least improve your ability to preserve your capital for when better opportunities appear.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.