202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btc

Good Morning and I hope you are well.

bitcoin
Quote from last week:

bull case: We are at support until clearly broken. Bulls got a two legged correction which was very shallow and weak. They have no arguments on their side besides the previous resistance one. Best they can hope for is more sideways movement until the 1h 20ema comes closer - currently at 80.7.

comment: None but will update once we break above or grind down again.

current market cycle: Trading range

key levels: 56000 - 67000

bull case: Bulls need strong close above 67000 for 70000 and probably retest of ath. They tried 4 times now and failed. Market is also a wedge top on a lower time frame. Bulls have no good arguments around 67000.

bear case: Bears want to sell the high of the trading range and test back down to 60000 or break below. Right now odds favor them instead of a bull breakout. Not rocket science when support and resistance is clear.

short term: Bearish for at least 64000 but probably 60000 again. 67000 is my bullish line in the sand for 3 weeks now. I think odd’s favor more sideways inside given range. It’s absolutely not bullish that bulls could not get above 68000, 4 times now.

medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged

Update: Unchanged