SHOP range bound with potential for Bullish continuation
Hi guys so this is a Macro analysis on Shopify (SHOP). Recent weeks of price action have got my eyes on SHOP.
Lets jump right in. This analysis is done on the 1 week timeframe thus supporting a Macro lens look on whats happening.
As you can see, ive highlighted key area with an Orange rectangle.
Below it, you can see candles attempting to get into it and getting rejected few times.
However since Nov 2023 till present time, we've been inside the Orange rectangle.
Recently, we've made it to the bottom of the Rectangle to test it as SUPPORT.
We had about 3 weeks of Testing. With this weeks Candle printing a potential Large lower wicked Hammer candle.
This can be an indication of a attempt to reverse our downtrend from $90ish.
At the same time, we have Support confluence of this Ascending Channel.
And our current candle attempting to break Resistance trendline that formed since Feb and local top of $90.
Remember though a breakout above Resistance trendline is not enough. We would need confirmation of it acting as support.
On top of that, at the posting of this idea. Our weekly candle has yet to close. Maintaining price Above 73.50 would be key.
And to keep in mind that there is also Resistance Above $74.00
If things progress look to where the Upper trendline of Ascending Channel and the Upper border of Rectangle meet to potential target.
Also keep an eye for updates on further signs/ clues to take into consideration to help us make informed decisions!
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on SHOP in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Lets jump right in. This analysis is done on the 1 week timeframe thus supporting a Macro lens look on whats happening.
As you can see, ive highlighted key area with an Orange rectangle.
Below it, you can see candles attempting to get into it and getting rejected few times.
However since Nov 2023 till present time, we've been inside the Orange rectangle.
Recently, we've made it to the bottom of the Rectangle to test it as SUPPORT.
We had about 3 weeks of Testing. With this weeks Candle printing a potential Large lower wicked Hammer candle.
This can be an indication of a attempt to reverse our downtrend from $90ish.
At the same time, we have Support confluence of this Ascending Channel.
And our current candle attempting to break Resistance trendline that formed since Feb and local top of $90.
Remember though a breakout above Resistance trendline is not enough. We would need confirmation of it acting as support.
On top of that, at the posting of this idea. Our weekly candle has yet to close. Maintaining price Above 73.50 would be key.
And to keep in mind that there is also Resistance Above $74.00
If things progress look to where the Upper trendline of Ascending Channel and the Upper border of Rectangle meet to potential target.
Also keep an eye for updates on further signs/ clues to take into consideration to help us make informed decisions!
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on SHOP in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Comment:
Last time we FLashed these 2 signals, we rallied from $45 to the Local top of $90.
Comment:
Update on SHOP. This is on the 3 day timeframe. Current candle just began today, wait for close on the 10th.
Here we focus on Moving Average hierarchy.
Firstly, we are Above all Moving averages attempting to maintain SUPPORT on 21 EMA.
This current Hierarchy is what you would like to see for probabilities of an Uptrend to happen and continue.
21 EMA ( purple) at the TOP
50 SMA (Green) right below
100 SMA (Blue) below 50 SMA
200 SMA (Red) below all
If we maintain SUPPORT on 21 EMA, it is highly probable we move into an Uptrend rally.
Update on SHOP. This is on the 3 day timeframe. Current candle just began today, wait for close on the 10th.
Here we focus on Moving Average hierarchy.
Firstly, we are Above all Moving averages attempting to maintain SUPPORT on 21 EMA.
This current Hierarchy is what you would like to see for probabilities of an Uptrend to happen and continue.
21 EMA ( purple) at the TOP
50 SMA (Green) right below
100 SMA (Blue) below 50 SMA
200 SMA (Red) below all
If we maintain SUPPORT on 21 EMA, it is highly probable we move into an Uptrend rally.
Comment:
Pre-market SHOP down nearly 20%.
Will need to update thoroughly on the larger timeframes.
Look to where it currently is at and assess Demand.
Intraday timeframes are now in extreme OVERSOLD conditions especially 1hour and 15 minute.
This may be an area to take positions as long as larger trend is intact or for a quick in and out trade.
Look for a more thorough update.
Will need to update thoroughly on the larger timeframes.
Look to where it currently is at and assess Demand.
Intraday timeframes are now in extreme OVERSOLD conditions especially 1hour and 15 minute.
This may be an area to take positions as long as larger trend is intact or for a quick in and out trade.
Look for a more thorough update.
Comment:
One thing to look for is if we make it back into the Ascending Channel by end of day today. If not we would need to see if by end of week it happens or not.
Comment:
On the 1 week. Our current candle (not yet confirmed, wait till end of day friday)
Is below the Ascending Channel highlighted, as well as below the 21 EMA and 50 SMA.
Not a good look. But remember no confirmation has been made.
Even if we close down here. We have next week to redeem this move down.
But it would require a decisive bullish move regaining most of what we've lost. And us being back inside the channel which is KEY if we want to see a continuation of the Uptrend we've been in.
If that DOES NOT Happen, we are most likely going to test SUPPORT on 100 SMA at around 53$ lvl.
Notice also the STOCH RSI is at oversold area. As long as we stay here below the 20 lvl, Bearish momentum is king.
MACD also has shown Bearish signal. With the presence of a darker red bar print thats larger in size than previous one. We need to see this shrink by tomorrow and print light red.
On the 1 week. Our current candle (not yet confirmed, wait till end of day friday)
Is below the Ascending Channel highlighted, as well as below the 21 EMA and 50 SMA.
Not a good look. But remember no confirmation has been made.
Even if we close down here. We have next week to redeem this move down.
But it would require a decisive bullish move regaining most of what we've lost. And us being back inside the channel which is KEY if we want to see a continuation of the Uptrend we've been in.
If that DOES NOT Happen, we are most likely going to test SUPPORT on 100 SMA at around 53$ lvl.
Notice also the STOCH RSI is at oversold area. As long as we stay here below the 20 lvl, Bearish momentum is king.
MACD also has shown Bearish signal. With the presence of a darker red bar print thats larger in size than previous one. We need to see this shrink by tomorrow and print light red.
Comment:
Currently in the process of making our way to 100 SMA
Update on SHOP
Here i have added 2 indicators i like utilizing.
For me i see them as momentum indicators where if Bullish signs flash, Bullish momentum comes into markets to push price UP.
Likewise, if Bearish signs flash, Bearish momentum comes in, moving prices down.
For STOCH RSI, notice the BULL CROSS where Blue line is Over orange. As long as we maintain this Bullish cross and Move up ABOVE the 20 lvl. This on the 1 week can be a powerful signal.
MACD also is a great tool to assess momentum. Notice the decrease in the size of the Histogram bars. This indicates decreasing Bearish pressure. Also notice the Blue line flattening out. This also indicates decreasing bearish pressure. What we need is a Bullish cross where Blue line gets Above orange with GREEN histogram bar prints.