This began as a look at the downwards channel's BTC has been in.
The red channel will be "broken" soon.. What I seem to have noticed is, the breakouts in these down channels are "Breakout's in Name Only,"
What I mean by that is:
All BTC is doing is breaking out of nasty downwards trends that all have BTC going to zero if it doesn't (break out). So, the fact of me saying BTC is going to break out of one of these channels is rather insignificant/ obvious..
After the red channel, there is the white channel, and then the blue channel. All must be broke out of before any new "cycle,"
Main point is: After each of these channels get voided, there will be a selloff. The red channel will get voided in a matter of weeks/1month and then I'd expect a sell off shortly there after.
The worst may be the white channel in terms of drops after it gets nulled. You can see there, the drop could get as low as 10,000. (10-12 seems reasonable).
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All this post is for is to (a) Test my foresight (wink) and (b) encourage readers to be careful.
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Nothing I write or post here is meant to be financial advice for the readers. I am not responsible for your decisions.
That said, it is likely there will be one more Bitcoin cycle (100-120k as the cycle high). I have a host of reasons that lead me to think it may very well be its last.
The red channel will be "broken" soon.. What I seem to have noticed is, the breakouts in these down channels are "Breakout's in Name Only,"
What I mean by that is:
All BTC is doing is breaking out of nasty downwards trends that all have BTC going to zero if it doesn't (break out). So, the fact of me saying BTC is going to break out of one of these channels is rather insignificant/ obvious..
After the red channel, there is the white channel, and then the blue channel. All must be broke out of before any new "cycle,"
Main point is: After each of these channels get voided, there will be a selloff. The red channel will get voided in a matter of weeks/1month and then I'd expect a sell off shortly there after.
The worst may be the white channel in terms of drops after it gets nulled. You can see there, the drop could get as low as 10,000. (10-12 seems reasonable).
---
All this post is for is to (a) Test my foresight (wink) and (b) encourage readers to be careful.
-----
Nothing I write or post here is meant to be financial advice for the readers. I am not responsible for your decisions.
That said, it is likely there will be one more Bitcoin cycle (100-120k as the cycle high). I have a host of reasons that lead me to think it may very well be its last.
Trade closed manually:
Hi all-
When I posted this in September of 2023, the idea that BTC would have a good (5+%) month ahead-2 months was a rare take.
As we can all see now, BTC jumped even higher than I expected. This changes everything about this idea.
I will look at BTC again, so wait until that analysis.
However, the first rule of thumb is same pattern but potentially higher lows.
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Basically, without looking at it via my modeling, my best guess is --
we are near the mid term TOP. I do not think this is the run to ATH's.
Runs to ATH's are usually rapid (much more than BTC grew these past 12 months) and typically begin immediately after the "worst its been,"
******For example, Bitcoin traded below 5k less than a year before it hit 60k. *******
When I posted this in September of 2023, the idea that BTC would have a good (5+%) month ahead-2 months was a rare take.
As we can all see now, BTC jumped even higher than I expected. This changes everything about this idea.
I will look at BTC again, so wait until that analysis.
However, the first rule of thumb is same pattern but potentially higher lows.
==============
Basically, without looking at it via my modeling, my best guess is --
we are near the mid term TOP. I do not think this is the run to ATH's.
Runs to ATH's are usually rapid (much more than BTC grew these past 12 months) and typically begin immediately after the "worst its been,"
******For example, Bitcoin traded below 5k less than a year before it hit 60k. *******
Bitcoin's likely reversal region may still be > 10 months out.
Bitcoin will defend the 10,000-12,000 USD region to begin the new cycle which would likely yield a 1000% return.
a mass exit initiated by whales may follow... Would it spell the End? LMK.