regain sthchecked and hit trough a resistens, cant hold it, now cheking back a lower support, my idea with a little pozitive strenght. and a next month will be an upward movment to the nearest local high, what is the target areaLongby revesz1100113
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE data is coming From week to week investors are shaping the sentiment in line with the latest available data on the US inflation and probability of when the Fed might make its first rate cut during the course of this year. Expectations from the first quarter of this year are turned toward September, where the CME FedWatch Tool is now showing that traders are currently pricing around 50% probability for this period and 63% probability for the rate cut in November. There are also some significant names on the market, who are publicly noting their expectation that the Fed most probably will not cut interest rates during this year. All this needs to be digested by the market, so some volatility might continue in the future period. This is especially relevant for the week ahead, for when US April PCE data are set for a release. The 10Y benchmark was moving within a relatively short range during the previous week, between levels of 4.4% and 4.49%. It could be expected that the market will open on Monday around 4.5%, however, there is no indication that the yields can go higher from this level. Certainly, any surprises on PCE data might change it. At this moment, charts are more oriented toward downside, with higher probability that levels modestly below 4.45 could be tested for one more time. by XBTFX11
10Y yields - Elliott Wave count points to further downsideFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like more weakness should be seen on the 10Y yields after the end of the corrective wave B (or wave 2). Since that top at 4.74%, we have seen a five wave decline which was followed by a three wave advance (it could still be developing). I believe the 5-wave decline was wave 1 of a 5-wave impulsive decline that could take yields to 3.50%, where wave C would be equal to A. This view is negated if we break above the aforementioned top of wave B.Shortby tchamoun3
Flip FlopAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this professional advice. I will continually update all trades.Shortby THE_APIS_TRADER3
US10Y held the 1D MA200 and is starting a new rallyThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023 and test initially the previous Higher High of the 2-year Channel Up. Our Target is slightly below at 5.000%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot2216
US 10YR yields approaching symmetrical triangle formationKey Pivot to reach Apex which would result in Breakout is around US Election period.(Nov start) 1) Election Outcome favourable and CPI under control (fed cuts) - Yields drop further 2) Election outcome not favourable & CPI under Control - Yields to move up in medium term (above 4.467% level) & throwback to apex. 3) Election outcome favorable & CPI increases - Yields to move down in medium term below 4.467% & pullback to apex level. Shortby LifelonglearnUpdated 1
Daily Chart: ZB(30y Bonds) v US10y (10Y Yields)Please read descriptions in chart on analysis. overall, not much news this week, just FED speak and NVDA earnings plus Memorial day next week so we can have a choppy week awaiting next week's databy pwizzle344
US 10 Year Bonds - Weekly Outlook - 20 May 2024 - Image Daily chart of US 10 Year Bond As per image, we have had two drives up, and are finding support here, so i would think there is at least one more drive up. I'll be looking to get long as per my diagram shown, with SL and TP as shown. Longby TraderRiz6
US 10Y TREASURY: smooth optimismInvestors are still weightening the latest inflation data posted during the previous week. Posted inflation figures were in line with the market estimate. Inflation rate reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April. By putting it into a perspective of jobs data and consumer sentiment, inventors are perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year, with currently 54% odds. This sentiment pushed the equity markets in the US, however, US Treasuries were traded in a mixed manner. Namely, the 10Y benchmark yields started the previous week around 4.5% level, and during the week were pushed to the lowest weekly level at 4.32%. Still, yields are ending the week at 4.42%. The level of 4.2% is currently tested. Market will start the week ahead trying to break the 4.2% line to the upside. Some volatility might be expected in the coming period, and data are still not completely clear in which direction the inflation in the US is heading. In this sense, there is some probability for the 4.5% level to be tested for one more time, but there is no indication that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, the easing of yields might go down to the level of 4.3% for one more time. by XBTFX12
US10Y - US02Y = Crash ZoneCrash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell" by ILuminosityUpdated 8849
The Bond DilemmaThis is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential milestone for a scenario in which in case it is hit, and only in this scenario, a pivot point might be expected at the marked time stamp. The marked price level is also relevant in case a correction is formed near it, leading to a potential end of it, with a candlestick potential reversal pattern that can signal an opportunity to jump on the action of the next wave. We use Japanese Candlesticks in our analysis to compute the tendencies of the market, the sentiment, the overall context of each wave, but also to assess any potential weakness in a wave (useful and required for position management), or a complete reversal. While the obvious scenarios in which a turnaround can occur at the upper rectangle, a bounce from the red one, or an incursion towards the big green one, might sound appealing to us, we must also not limit ourselves to such scenarios and keep an open mind for any other opportunities signaled by the candlestick analysis, and the overall context of the flows and events in the market. As usual, this project will be followed by short updates for milestones, highlights, or potential red alert scenarios (pivot points or reversals). Trade with care, and may the force of profits be with you!by nenUpdated 5543
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom. I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.by MikhiavelliUpdated 21
US 10 year Bond BoxesAll horizontal rectangles edges are Levels I will be watching for potential support and resistance action. Wouldn't say I am overly confident in the potential colored path of the boxes (red, cyan, yellow, pink and blue), but will provide step by step updates if anything significant pops up in a discretionary perspective. The project should or might become more relevant with it's levels and zones, in time, if we get to see specific price action at the levels to indicate at least a slight sign of relevance. First one to look out for is potential support at the red zone. Next to watch out for is a bullish toned cyan box perspective. If these fail, all bets are not off, we just let the price action dictate how the market feels inside the boxes and what it does when it escapes one. Thinking outside of the box there might be another potential aspect for this project. What if the information is encrypted so that we don't get to see in advance what can really actually happen? How can we crack the code and why? Take a deep breath. Get A Touch of Zen. Look at the design without having thoughts about it and see what pops up and why and how. I like the O icon and the nen text location. Could be wrong though. This one is similar to the EURUSD project. Linked.by nen0
US10Y Bouncing US10Y is looking like it is going to make its next leg up soon. It bounced off the MAs a couple weeks ago (which corresponded to the previous high in Oct 2022) and is moving up quick. Something about today's price action with equities and NVDA is giving me an inkling that US10Y will be moving up throughout the summer, targeting the 5% level again. Longby TheStockMan0
US Bond Yield 10 year VS NASQAD US Bond Yield 10 year show continue uptrend but NASQAD show timing end uptrend. Shortby Teerasak_Tanavarakul0
Show me what you gotAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this professional advice. I will continually update all trades.Longby THE_APIS_TRADER1
🌕DOOMSDAY POST #236🌖 : THE GREAT RESET🌗MAKE OR BREAK🌒Okay lets break it down ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ ☄️ Technical analysis is a very important factor in prediction, despite the fact we like to downgrade and bruise the egos of traders who are overly reliant on it of traders but lets put the jokes aside its all just data and interpreting it is the objective history repeats itself simple That said im going to be predicting the coming interest rates by predicting the TVC:US10Y (similar beta in trend) which will lead to strengthening TVC:DXY and large capital outflows from emerging economies experiencing foreign investment boom resulting in one big financial doo-doo aka RECESSION i know nothing new under the sun and i 100% live by it, but with the amount of new variables to filter in i feel like this might be bigger than we anticipate or might just be brushed under the rug as if nothing happend after experiencing a big retracement of sorts in the markets but not big enough to lose our shxxs the significance of the variables as a result of their magnitude is what concerns me and their impact to the panic which i also suspect could work in the markets favour for some reason WARS and the increasing division among allied nations Market liquidity (more participants) Social media and changing social standards (the consumers livelihoods) US debt ceiling US Real estate mortgage rates Shift in power dominance (China) LET ME KEEP IT SHORT 4 NOW Educationby Bekiumuzi_Dube1
Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen. I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference. Longby RizeSenpai0
Rates are breaking recent up trends, $TNXGood Morning Everyone! The 2Yr Yield is retesting the recent support level, highlighted by arrows. The 10Yr #yield is currently breaking the recent uptrend. The yellow box was highlighted in the last post showing the WEAKNESS. However, forgot to speak on that yesterday (see profile for more info). They cannot lower #interestrates... But they must, at least short term. QT is done.by ROYAL_OAK_INC0
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for CPIMoves in Treasury yields during the previous week are showing that the market has already priced all known information, and waiting for new ones in order to decide on a further action to the up or downside. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was moving between levels of 4.51% down to 4.42% on one occasion. The majority of deals were around the 4.5% level. It should be mentioned that a 30-year bonds auction was held the previous week, where strong demand for these bonds was evident. This demand was led by latest US unemployment data and investors expectations of rate cuts during the course of this year. In this sense, a demand for other maturities, including 10Y was left out of the focus. In a week ahead a fresh US consumer price index data will be released, which might bring back some volatility on the Treasury yields. If the CPI is higher from market expectations, then yields might be pushed to the upper side, at least 4.55%, with low probability for 4.6%. However, if the CPI data show some relaxation, then the Treasury yields will continue their current path to the downside, and the level of 4.4%. by XBTFX19
US10Y - Take Note Of 4.549%Lows of 4.420% was printed this trading week with minimal draws to buyside liquidity as yields had been trading within the weekly fair value gap. Intraday-week market structure shift occurred during Thursdays US AM session before a minor retracement below consequent encroachment @ 4.458 ensued. This leaves buyside ripe for the takings and I’ve got my eyes on 4.549%. Longby LegendSince2
What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? The clear five-wave pattern in bond yields is causing concern.by Courage_Faith3
Huge potential implications from YIELD SPREADS (US10y-DE10y)Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn in the sequence of stronger US data? If so then in coming weeks/months we could see: Weaker data Lower yields (esp in the front end) Curve "disinversion" Weaker DXY Higher risk assets = stonks, commods (gold silver, Uranium, oil etc), Bitcoinby WVS_Stockscreen8