QQQ had a bad week last week after trying since February to break long term resistance of the Blue trading channel. There was a lot of momentum but ultimately after being squeezed between resistance of the blue channel and support from black channel midline, it was time to take profit for the big guys. Clearly, inflation readings and uncertainty about interest...
It looks like momentum is back and QQQ is getting ready to break out of the trading channel. Based on the COVID rally, I think we have a chance to add another 15%.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is in a struggle with long term resistance of the trading channel and that of the momentum buyers. You can see the rejection several times off resistance, but every time the momentum buyers push it back up. I am still unsure what is going to happen here. We are at the point where bad news is good news and good news is better news just like in...
I see the NAS100 fighting to break above the long-term trading channel resistance since 2010. The AI FOMO has pushed things up quickly this past year. Will a broadening rally from the rest of the market push it above the channel like during COVID? Hard to know right now. I see and feel a lot of the same FOMO as in 20-21. It could just keep working its way up along...
Tech is just super strong and though in the overvalued range, I think it is likely going to run up to at least 20,000 before summer based on the 1.6 fib extension. Now, I still think we need a confirmation of continued bullishness next week. If we continue above the trend line, then I see no reason that it does not stop until 20k.
QQQ's price has approached the resistance trendline at the top of the trading channel since 2010. It's crucial to monitor this line for a potential breakout. If we observe an upward breakout followed by clear confirmation, it could resemble another "bubble" similar to what we saw in 2021. Otherwise, the price might continue its upward trend while trading sideways...
Blue channel represents the primary trading channel since the 2009 crash. Only during the Covid bubble was QQQ able to escape that channel (ended up doubling it). Price can still work its way up along this resistance line, such as 2014 and 2018, but both of those times the stock market averaged out to be pretty flat over about a year time frame. Here it is on the 1W
Here is my look at the NASDAQ. If this wave continues its upward wave trend, we could see another 5% or more to retake the ATH by Christmas. There was a clear and strong breakout of the down trend and a clear motive wave. With moving averages
A trend line chart using log price to show that the S&P is still running pretty hot relative to historic trends. There are some good websites that use Mean Reversion Model, exponential fit, and inflation adjusted prices to show the same thing. I did a more visual analysis using trend lines. Hard to know how long price will stay at this level. The recent AI boom...
Closed below 200 day yesterday and pretty clear follow through today. You can see that that the price tested and is now back in the original down channel before the breakout in January. My guess is that we are at least going to test the center of the red channel and likely the blue trend line. Could even go as low as center of orange channel and test the purple...
Follow up to my previous post. The big sell today confirms that the 20 day EMA is lost and a test of the 200 day is next. Not sure how low it will go, but the blue trend line, the 200 day, and the previous orange trading channel should provide support. Lose that, then down to the dotted red center line around 3700. If that comes true, then there is ample reason to...
Looks like S&P is losing support of the 20 day SMA. You can see that it is currently clearly below the 20 day close SMA and now looks to below the 20 day low SMA. You can see in my chart that when this happens the indicator turns red and almost every time some level of pull back follows. How low is always the questions. It seems like the minimal pull back should...
What I see is that the S&P has confirmed a new down channel (red) with Thursday's (2/2) peak after it broke out of the orange down channel made from the tops in March and August 2022. This new red channel is created with the two lows from June and October 2022 and the price action from May 21. If this holds, then bear market is still intact and price will fall. I...
Another of my big picture looks at the NASDAQ. You can see that we had a strong rally off the bottom of the blue channel, and right now it is around the middle of the channel. In the big picture though, we have barely come down out of the massive QE and low interest rate bubble created after the financial crisis. I find it hard to get too into this rally, we saw...
S&P broke above resistance trend line of the down channel yesterday. Is this a breakout with more upside or a fakeout? Trading rules say we should look for a test of the trend line before confirmation of the breakout. Market really wants to put 2022 in the rearview mirror, but let's see what happens.
One of my ideas where I zoom out and look at the bigger picture for the NASDAQ using QQQ on the weekly timeframe. The technical analysis is pretty simple with a focus on the main trading channels and how the major peaks align. Hard to guess the markets direction, but there is definitely room to go lower to the support of the green channel. With 20 and 200 week...
Here is an update on my Tesla analysis. Hit the 1.618 fib extension just above $101 and saw a good support. Maybe a good bounce to the $130 level? I still think Tesla has more downside. Once the selling starts, it is hard to stop it. Could find good support at this level if enough people think this price is a good deal, but retail investors won't be enough. If the...
Here is my chart combining channels, trend lines, and waves. You can see that the NASDAQ has been fighting to stay inside the blue channel since mid-October, but has been trapped under the black channel. If it is going to hold, then this would be a good place. That would keep the blue channel bull rally intact. However, this week's rejection off the top of the...