DropDead_Fed

DropDead_Fed

fairly confident BTC will retest $40k CME gap ($39,640) in the next few days

DropDead_Fed

The total stablecoin market downtrend parabola was broken this week and backtested yesterday and wicked up to form a bullish retest candle. Crypto bear market bottom is in. Expecting bitcoin to likely lead the charge as usual until we peak out on the BTC.D dominance chart pennant pattern, then alts run. In meantime gobbling up all my fav alts while they...

DropDead_Fed

You couldn't ask for a more perfect setup for longing gold from the TA to the macro/global uncertainty here

DropDead_Fed

There is some ample evidence fundamentally as well as technically why Bitcoin is possibly entering Wyckoff Accumulation period. There is also many other indicators saying the bottom may be in. Now this could change if the fed drastically does some more QT but so far a decent bull trap at a min is setting up.

DropDead_Fed

Just for fun still tracking these from a year ago... I don't expect the patterns to hold unless the bottom is in. Still tbd on that. Lots of macro headwinds next 2-3 years.

DropDead_Fed

This is interesting - if bitcoin is really to survive the coming global depression (very likely probability per Ray Dalio and Bridgewater's amazing research and free published works), then we can also safely assume there is a likely chance bitcoin enters a period of re-accumulation in Wyckoff terms while global equities markets lose a decade to consolidation and...

DropDead_Fed

Looks like high probability that the gold bottom is in

DropDead_Fed

This could be a very clean Wyckoff accumulation that may last many years

DropDead_Fed

The 2 day buy signal has flashed this week... so there is an 80% chance roughtly of a much higher move up. But I still see a bear scenario ominously present.

DropDead_Fed Updated 

This is not a one stop signal - but it does give some confluence that odds are a bounce or bottom are coming either her already or soon. However the macro conditions with recession/depression here plus QT and rising rates and supply chain issues paint a different story. Which is it? I suspect we have a lot more pain ahead next 24 months to 8 years of this...

DropDead_Fed

Looking back it's hard to find a time when this wasn't the leading best signal for a sizable rally in stock markets (and likely crypto will bottom ahead of this bottoming out). Just have to wait for the break of the downtrend.

DropDead_Fed

I still think bitocin is leading markets and markets like tech/QQQ are playing out something like this in the chart. With the two fed dates marked in vertical dashed lines. May 5 FOMC talk I suspect actually makes matters worse when there is no indication of fed changing strategy and markets sell off into May 25 bottom after which fed says something dovish -...

DropDead_Fed

Great place to long equities is on next area or trendline test of support of NDX strength charts reaching way oversold bearish sentiment soon

DropDead_Fed

I think inflation has topped if TA works in this area. There is fundamental deflationary macro economic forces at play as well that could see a reduction in inflation by next year and the rest of this decade. The current war and supply shocks due to trade war are interim.

DropDead_Fed

Is BTC heading to ATH or is this a fakeout coming? stay tuned.

DropDead_Fed

The GRM has shown last two times that when we react poorly to the 2x350 MA bottom Pink band, there is likely a very strong capitulatory move coming. But first we could easily see more rally/upside/consolidation.

DropDead_Fed

JNK (junk bonds - aka corporate riskier debt) / TLT (20 year bonds): Rising level means risk-on appetite for the market Dropping level means risk-off. We just peaked, however we could still see sizeable last market parabolic rally.

DropDead_Fed

in the coming few months we should see risk-off occurring but we first may have the final blow off top - contrary to most critics. Or not. We will see.