HenriqueCentieiro

HenriqueCentieiro

According to my analysis, there’s a significant correlation between Google trends (the frequency of Google searches) and the price of Bitcoin. Coincidentally, lower volumes of Google searches signify quiet times in the market from the retail perspective. Since March 2024 there’s been a decline in Google searches for Bitcoin. This can be interpreted as a lower...

HenriqueCentieiro

The indicator in blue represents the Sharpe Ratio of a DCA strategy. In this case, as can be seen on the chart, the DCA Sharpe ratio is 6, while the "regular" Sharpe ratio is 3. This shows that Dollar Cost Averaging strategies can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns.

HenriqueCentieiro

We still have distortions from the monetary liquidity introduced during the pandemic. The bottom indicator is the 12-month rate of change. We can see an extreme expansion in M2 and subsequent contraction. On the other hand, we can see that the M2 line still shows a big stock of liquidity compared to the standard deviations. Each standard deviation on the chart...

HenriqueCentieiro

Government unemployment benefits might be the reason why over the last 40 years, the unemployment rates in Portugal and Spain have been higher than Hong Kong.

HenriqueCentieiro

In the chart, we can see that the active wallets can be a leading indicator for the price of a crypto. This is similar to Metcalfe's Law, which measures a network's value. The law shows that the value of a network grows exponentially as the number of its users increases. We can see that recently, the number of MKR addresses increased significantly but the price...

HenriqueCentieiro

Bitcoin is highly correlated with the M2 money supply. Saying this, when the correlation is negative, i.e., periods when BTC is declining but the M2 is increasing, it is usually a good time to accumulate BTC as the price will sooner or later catch up with its long-term correlation with the M2.

HenriqueCentieiro

Historically, Hashrate and Bitcoin prices have a strong correlation. When hashrate increases more than Bitcoin price, it indicates a rise in Bitcoin price soon. This indicator uses the formula: Price/hashrate delta ratio = period price delta / period hashrate delta Whenever the ratio between the price and hashrate of Bitcoin is positive, it indicates that the...

HenriqueCentieiro

Google trends can give us important confirmation that people are interested in Bitcoin and there's a growing sentiment around it. Usually, Bitcoin Google trends correlate to sharp gains or losses.

HenriqueCentieiro

Most times, Bitcoin will perform worse when interest rates go up and perform well when interest rates go down. The same can be said when looking at the US money printer. The M2 money supply is the best indicator to measure how much money is printed and potential inflation. The chart below shows the US M2 money supply in purple and Bitcoin in orange. In the short...

HenriqueCentieiro

Bitcoin spot ETFs could impact Bitcoin's price similarly to gold ETFs' effect on gold. Using a 10x money multiplier from NYDIG's approach, a dollar in a Bitcoin ETF might boost Bitcoin's price tenfold. With potential AUM of $1-100 billion for these ETFs, the price of Bitcoin could be significantly affected. The formula used is: BTC price = ((1/FED reserve ratio)...

HenriqueCentieiro

$60,000.00 to $69,000.00 is a key resistance level and Bitcoin might show some resistance to break this level. This might be a good opportunity to take some profit.

HenriqueCentieiro

This is just to show that Ethereum Vs SP500 Beta is 1.6. Beta higher than 1.0 can be interpreted as more volatile than the S&P 500. A beta of 1.6 means that ETH is significantly more volatile than the SP500. In this case, 1.6 is the Beta of the last 400 weeks. If we look at shorter periods, the Beta is actually way lower in the recent months/years.

HenriqueCentieiro

For almost one year, SOL has been trading in the range between $9 and $27 (current price $29). Both RAI and MACD are slightly in an oversold area (1-day candles). The developer activity on Solana has had a substantial drop since Mar. 2022., going from 70 000 commits to 16 000 commits in Sept. 2023. However, this year, it has shown some recovery. From Jan to...

HenriqueCentieiro

Technological Innovation is Compounding Technological progress has huge impact on the P/E ratios of companies and the S&P 500. Technologically advanced companies naturally have a higher P/E as it's expected from them to have better future earnings. One of the ways better future earnings happen is through efficiency leaps. These efficiency leaps are important to...