positionforex

positionforex Updated 

As you can see, I've been short EURUSD since 3/31/24. Last week's CPI report and the build-up before that have turned a profitable trade into a losing one for now. I think the Fed will continue to hold higher rates, and I believe the economy still has some steam. Inflation takes a while to work its way into the economy and takes even longer to get out, so I'm...

positionforex

Yen's weakness has been one of the biggest stories of the last two years, but we are set for a reversal in the near term. Fundamentally, inflation and the economy are holding steady in Japan, and the carry trade looks very old. In late April, the big reversal shook many carry traders out and opened the door to a near-term reversal. This is a higher-risk trade...

positionforex

Canada's inflation is well below 2%, and with GDP underperforming at 1.7% annualized, the time to cut rates from 5% could be this Wednesday. If this doesn't happen, we could see a snapback in the market near the 0.9050 area, which would be a good potential entry. Australia's inflation rate is 3.4%, so no rate cut coming soon. NO TRADE Trend: Bullish Momentum:...

positionforex Updated 

Somewhere between 0.6400 and 0.6900, there is the possibility of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern forming. This consolidation will lead to a significant breakout, which could be in either direction with this pattern. The nature of this pattern negates the usefulness of trend and momentum as indicators. The best way to negate this pattern would be for AUDUSD to...

positionforex Updated 

Trend: LSMA moving lower for 3+ weeks, pattern of Lower Highs and Lower Lows Momentum: Moved to Neutral as price retraces the selloff Japanese Candles: An imperfect Shooting Star is developing Chart Pattern: Bearish Channel Support and Resistance: 0.6675 is Support, 0.6400 is Resistance. Fundamentals: Aussie Retail Sales on Wednesday Trade: Open Short...

positionforex

I usually post Weekly charts. Using a Daily chart here to more easily detail price levels. Prior State: Selloff from mid-December bounced near 234. A Bullish Engulfing Pattern was confirmed on 12/27. Current State: Price has retraced 38.2% of the selloff from the October high to the December low. A move to 264 would introduce price to a prior congestion...

positionforex

Prior State: The AUD/USD has been falling for most of 2018 until a rally in early November brought the price outside of the down channel. Current State: Price has been rangebound since the channel breakout between .7050 and .7325. While we have no trade open, we have theorized the possibility a base is forming, and higher prices are the next move. Future...

positionforex

Prior State: Since February 2017 the Euro has been steadily climbing against the Canadian Dollar. Current State: Price retraced approximately 50% of the rise from 2/27/17 to 3/12/18 (1.3827 to 1.6089 at 50% is 1.4996) The rally above 1.5475 confirmed a resumption of the rally. Future Forecast: Today's massive selloff is bringing the price near the targeted...

positionforex Updated 

The 100% Fibo extension of 1.2527, 1.3390, and 1.2780 has played out and hit our first target. Price stalled in this area in the two sessions prior to today but today's move of ~.5% up gives reason to believe this rally could continue higher to the next target of 1.38. Oil prices would need to remain weak and an end to the US Government shutdown could be a...

positionforex Updated 

Prior State: Long-term downtrend since June 2017 has been in effect will multiple countertrend rallies. Current State: Price has stalled with multiple bearish reversal candles at prior resistance near .9150. Future Forecast: Resistance at .9150 will hold and with any rise in Crude Oil prices momentum will turn to the downside. Below .8925 will confirm a...

positionforex

EUR/JPY has been on a steady pattern of lower highs and lower lows. First target at 126.50 has already been hit and 125.00 is next if momentum continues its current path. If a "risk-off" continues and potentially accelerates the downward channel could accelerate and reach the third target of 115.75. Need to see price action with momentum break the 125 close to...

positionforex

Today's huge equity rally changes the weekly candlestick to a Long Legged Doji and threatens the downward channel. Still looking for a close below 112 to confirm the next leg down has started. Fibo extension still marks 110 as the next target.

positionforex

After a massive rally throughout November NZD/JPY is now poised to move lower. On 12/3 a Bearish Piercing Pattern formed with the fall from the 78.63 level. By taking out the low of 11/26 at 76.26 and breaking the 75.00 support/resistance level momentum is now to the downside. The first target is 73.00 assuming we finish the week below 76.50.

positionforex Updated 

CAD/JPY found critical support in March at the 80.75 level. This level has not only served as support but resistance as well looking back to the middle of 2016. The move above 86.00 confirms the breakout and is echoed by the TSI whose momentum now threatens the zero line and the positive trend in the Aroon. Next target is 88.50

positionforex

Current State Summary: EUR/USD ascending triangle has broken to the downside. Momentum has gone flat after the rally from mid-August. The trend has remained bearish throughout this rally and stopped at 1.1750 resistance level. 1.1750 has been strong resistance since early June. What Comes Next: Since the broader trend is bearish and the current sentiment is...

positionforex

In an uptrend since April 2018 and peaking in August the Aussie has been giving ground to the Kiwi ever since. Having fallen to the trendline is this the place the Aussie returns to Bullish form? Overall momentum is positive but the signal line is sitting with the indicator line. If the signal rise can rise with price and push the bullish Aroon line up this...

positionforex

EU chief Barnier settled markets with a 6-8 week window for a Brexit settlement. The Euros reaction was to selloff as panic in the Pound receded. Now a channel has formed, and there is a possibility for a reversal pattern which will keep the short-term rally moving higher. Any harmful noise from the conservatives in the UK may have a bearish impact on the...

positionforex

The pair are trading in a range and the spinning tops at support may setup a reversal. The range is nearly 500 pips which can make for a good range trade. Waiting for confirmation. Follow me on Twitter @sealionllc Website: www.sealionllc.com