BITCOIN First red month after 7 straight green. How bad is it?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to close today (unless the 1M candle closing is above 71500) the first red month after 7 green monthly candles in a row. The last month of losses was last August (2023) and since then we've experienced an unprecedented rally, fueled primarily by the ETF anticipation and then its confirmation. So is this alarming?

Actually not. Sole 1 month red candles is quite common for BTC during its Bull Cycles and as we see on this chart, historically it tends to display mostly single 1M red candles and in some cases 2 straight red. Only once we've had 3 straight red months during a Bull Cycle and that was on September 2019 but it was when Bitcoin was correcting the abnormal very early rise following the Libra euphoria.

More specifically, when Bitcoin got past each Cycle's Halving, which is the position chronologically we're currently at, it has displayed single red candles 5 times and double 2 times. It is easy to understand that these short monthly corrections are a necessary part to Bitcoin's Bull Cycle especially as we get closer to the final and more aggressive part of the Cycle, which is the parabolic rally.

It is more likely that we will experience a green June and if anything a streak of green monthly candles to follow. If June is red too, we should then experience at least 4 straight green months as it happened on December 2016. In any case it appears that buying now on this red monthly closing is as good of a level as any as BTC prepares for the final parabolic rally of the Cycle.

As a sidenote, have a look at the 1M RSI, which after getting highly overbought on March (above 77.00), dived now back below the 70.00 barrier. This pull-back has more in common with RSI pull-backs like September 2020, March 2017, October 2012, than any other red 1M sequences. This confirms that the parabolic rally is just around the corner.

But what do you think? Are you expecting April to be the last red month in a while? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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