5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:S - starting my position here at $17 after hours. hard to say what's buying mgn of safety here, but i'll make a few points: 1) growing 35-40%, same as industry leaders but spending way less 2) better tech, Tomer confident and humble communicating this; have heard it from those in industry as well. buy tech in enterprise, not...
5/30/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ZS - genuinely pains me to not be super bull into this q - i have a peanut position b/c it's a core compounder for me, but it's small. i've seen all the B2B/ cyber pitches this quarter and NASDAQ:ZS and NYSE:S are today... and if we're playing the odds fam, it's almost hard to see how this sticks and runs at >10x sales, LSD fcf %...
5/29/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:CRM - this should be on everyone's short list. visibility toward 7+ bn of fcf (don't dilute w/ options like many other smaller tech which i've been warning against + stock not broken) which means that's about a 2.5% yield. i think you could do better in NASDAQ:AAPL at >3%, but again it's not software, nevermind stickier B2B. sub 30x...
5/30/24 - $vrockstar - NYSE:PHR - a more niche (healthcare) NYSE:YOU comp - which as you guys know is my largest single name position. however when considering NYSE:YOU grows mid 20s revenue (this does low 20s), and NYSE:YOU is massively profitable (this still isn't) and NYSE:YOU has a big net cash balance and buys back stock (this one dilutes you) and ...
5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:VEEV - have put this one on my short list of things i'd like to dip buy, even though i admit i think the risk is probably higher they beat and the stock retraces today's (software factor risk off) move. 31x PE isn't cheap. it's about 1.5x PEG at this rate - which is reasonable. 3.5% fcf yield for sales growing mid teens is reasonable...
5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ESTC - careful here. burning a post to warn that this 10x sales valuation but ~20% pa growth and no opex flex + a ton of stock comp obscuring true FCF generation are the factors that are getting murdered in this tape. the stock has been an unlikley winner since struggling v. the Q's for some time. the options chain is defn pricing in a...
5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:GCO - as hard as i try not to convince myself to short stuff and trust me THE BAR IS HIGH - this is a possible candidate. 1. brands are not A tier, this isn't crox, onon, birk, lulu etc. 2. chart is trash 3. capital stack is trash 65% of enterprise value is debt - toxic factor in rising rates 4. meager cash generation, a lot of it...
5/30/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:COST - i get it guys we're in a recession and everyone has become the poors and costco is for good times and bad and especially in bad times. but 10% eps growth and 50x on 2025 EPS? GTFO. i'm not going to knock you if you own this - awesome play so far - but good lawd take some nacho off the table here. this isn't a...
5/30/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ULTA - this looks overdone for what should be decent results - given all the shoe co's crox, onon, birk, fl... beauty elf and even clothing names anf getting love (even lulu finding a much needed bounce - as i commented on sub $300) at 15x PE and 5% fcf yield, the setup does look +ve. what concerns me at the margin is this google...
5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ASAN - 3.7x sales for co growing sales ~10% pa (or that's the expectation) this year is too much esp for sub-scale software so this is a mega high risk thing to own especially since *all?* software is getting dumped - give me a handful of names where that's not the case - and you've accounted for all of them. so the low risk way of...
5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:RHI - doing a follow up comment here given the stock now at 52wk lows and was flagged to me by a friend to take a look. 1) my valuation comments vs. the 4/25/24 comment don't change much. you're looking at a situation where it's a matter of where bottom EPS is and what lift off is from there. $3 of EPS seems low to me this yr, but is...
5/29/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:PATH - tough one here guys/ but i'm taking a small position here AH -30%. this is NOT an easy entry, so keeping it small for now. the 2Q revenue guide is defn a problem. could hold the stock hostage, and might be worth listening to the call to see if anything changes. stock *deserves* to be down a lot, 30% though? so let's do the math....
5/29/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:AI - just don't think you can buy this with confidence anywhere near current levels given 1) decelerating growth (esp looking at the 2Y stack), 2) burns cash even considering massive stock comp (which isn't cash in a declining px) and worst perhaps of all is 3) when you look at gross profit YoY difference vs. opex spending (even take...
5/29/24 - vrockstar - $asmc - just added to my energy watchlist b/c the growth here L12 months q by q has been pretty impressive. stock has reacted to a lot of this, however, obviously. so $500-$600 mm valuation on $150 of sales is 3.5-4x sales (b/c profitability still scaling), which a. for this cap and b. those non software margins is quite frankly too much to...
5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:LULU - clearly there's something wrong on a day like today where mkt is ATH and moving higher and 23x next year PE LULU is getting crushed. this is a bad omen for EPS, or the expectations need to come down and the stock is incorporating this. the real conundrum is beyond a beat (if that's the case this RIPS), the stock is going to...
5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ANF - heresy to dislike this valuation? i get it's had a renaissance. it's profitable. 5% yield that's good! 19x PE! good capital stack. it's still cheaper than NASDAQ:LULU without any of the baggage all else equal. the issue here, my friends, is this price point is becoming more and more problematic. NASDAQ:PDD 's temu just crushed...
5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:CAVA - taking a look at google trends... clearly we've not hit peak cava so... the market has tended to love these stories in the last 6-12 mo where you can't even see the peak. so valuation be secondary - even if it's 10x sales. NASDAQ:WING is closer to 20x, right? investing all profits (so no free cash) for cava... into growth?...
i sense this is one to either get rid of sooner than later if you own it and find a new spot. the px/ valuation at 16x and again the optics of HSD fcf yield look reasonable - but under the surface, these are more expensive than meets the eye on a pro-forma basis and the owners realize this b/c they've been selling the stock more vs. the index. gl to the holders....