Will Apple be the first in the race for a trillion?

Jul 30, 2018

The earnings season in the US is still very ambiguous. And generates more questions than answers. Facebook's historic fall alone makes this season memorable.

But this season does not necessarily enter the history of the stock markets with a negative. The matter is that tomorrow the quarterly reporting of Apple (the publication is planned for July 31st, 2018 after the market close) will be published.

The current capitalization of Apple is $ 970 billion. That is, the company has come close to a trillion-dollar mark. And has a good chance to reach the finish line first, ahead of the main competitors from Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft.

On the one hand, the reaction of investors in the current earnings season is alarming. We have already mentioned Facebook, which managed to lose about $ 150 billion during a day on a very good figure. This is also Intel Corp., which even exceeded analysts' forecasts, but again was subjected to tough sales. And Netflix Inc., which demonstrated excellent data, but suffered severe losses. There are many such examples. As a result, in the current earnings season, the technology sector demonstrates the worst results. And this even though out of 36 technology companies, 35 showed better results than analysts forecast. That is, something quite illogical is happening.

But on the other hand, illogical markets can’t be permanent. Yes, from companies mentioned above, investors expect extraordinary and when they get something just ordinary, they are disappointed and give in to panic. Nevertheless, one must look at the situation not through rose-colored glasses of inflated expectations, but through the prism of the real world.

So, what do investors expect from Apple? In terms of quantitative indicators, it is the company's revenue growth of 15% y/y (the company's revenue for the third fiscal quarter is expected to amount to about $ 52.3 billion). This growth rate is the best for the company since 2015. Analysts say that the reason for such a rapid growth for the company is the rise in prices for the iPhone (yes, the growth rate of smartphone sales is only 2%, but together with the price of $ 1,000 iPhone X this should give a gain of revenue of about 17%. , the segment of smartphones generates about 60% of the company's revenues), the growth of revenues from the services sector (the company plans to increase revenue from this direction up to $ 50 billion a year and develops it very actively), as well as increased sales of Apple Watch and other products of the company (AirPods, HomePod, Apple TV).

So, if the data do not fail, investors will have a very good reason for buying Apple shares.

Also, important will be the company's comments about, the pace of sales of the iPhone X, as well as the effects of the trade wars of the US and China.
At these moments the reaction will be most acute.

Overall, given the illogical reaction of investors recently, Apple shares may be under pressure, especially if the quarterly data or management comments disappoint. Nevertheless, the general vector of the company's development so far does not give grounds for serious doubts about its effectiveness. So, we believe that the chances of reaching a trillion of capitalization from Apple are quite high. Our recommendation is to buy Apple shares.