Apple | Fundamental Analysis | Must Read...

Oct 26, 2021

Apple will release its fourth-quarter 2021 fiscal year results this Thursday, which entails investors looking for a fast-growing stock trading at a low price need to act quickly, as the smartphone titan looks poised to deliver solid numbers that will help halt the recent decline in its stock price.

As many know, Apple's stock has fallen over the past few weeks notwithstanding reports that the latest iPhone 13 models are in greater demand than last year's lineup. Let's take a look at the reasons why smart investors should take advantage of the Apple stock pullback.

Recent reports suggest that iPhone 13 sales may be held back by supply chain constraints. The iPhone maker could lose as many as 10 million iPhone 13 units as a worldwide shortage of semiconductors could disrupt production lines. The smartphone maker reportedly expected to produce 90 million iPhone units in 2021, but third-party reports indicate that it may fall short of that mark.

As it turns out, the chip shortage is awaited to influence not only iPhone production, but also interfere with the release of iPads and MacBooks. Not surprisingly, investor sentiment towards Apple stock has turned negative, but it should not be forgotten that the company has a huge opportunity.

For example, Wall Street expects Apple's fourth-quarter revenue to grow nearly 31% year-over-year to $84.7 billion. Earnings are expected to rise to $1.23 per share from $0.73 per share a year ago. When the company released its fiscal third-quarter results in July, Apple did not provide official guidance, citing uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, but it would not be shocking if the company beat market expectations.

Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that Apple's iPhone shipments for the quarter that ended in September will grow 17% year over year to 49 million units. When you consider that in the 5G era, Apple expects the average selling price of iPhones to rise significantly, revenue from the company's largest product line (which accounts for 49% of third-quarter revenue) could grow impressingly. Not surprisingly, Morgan Stanley analysts expect Apple's iPhone revenue to grow 52% year over year in the September quarter.

The higher ASP, as well as the fact that the company's services business is growing at a good pace, should lead to higher margins. Apple recorded a 33% year-over-year increase in services revenue in its third fiscal quarter, and that trend is likely to continue, due to remarkable increase in offerings such as the Apple TV+.

All of this indicates that Apple is well on its way to achieving good results. More importantly, the tech giant will likely be able to maintain its high growth rate as it is at the beginning of a big renewal cycle.

Investors shouldn't worry too much about near-term problems that could derail iPhone production, as the company has ample room to grow in the era of 5G smartphones thanks to its huge user base.

CEO Tim Cook said in January that Apple has a base of more than 1 billion active iPhone users. The company only released its first 5G-enabled iPhone models last year, which means that only a small fraction of its installed base is using 5G devices. Shipments of the iPhone 12 (Apple's first 5G-enabled device) totaled 100 million units this April, meaning that millions of users are still in the upgrade window.

Thus, Apple could continue to see significant growth in shipments in the coming years as more and more users upgrade to the new iPhones. Add to that improved pricing for 5G-enabled smartphones, and it's no wonder why Apple's revenue is expected to grow nearly 20 percent a year over the next five years. That's a big jump from the 8.4 percent annual earnings growth the company has seen over the past five years.

Finally, since Apple is trading at a forward earnings ratio of 29, which is lower than the Nasdaq-100's high tech weighted ratio of more than 35, it makes sense to buy these tech stocks before the earnings report comes out, as strong numbers and solid guidance can lift the stock and increase its value.