9/10/24 - $alrm - probably a buy, but at this stage need sub $50
9/10/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
ALRM
probably a buy, but at this stage need sub $50
- pre my public notes i opined that i'd require a lower PE multiple in the current environment... *maybe* 25x next year w/b okay. well, we're pretty much there.
- but the importance of my keeping tabs on when/ how i make these assessments allows me to say "something's changed" or nothing's changed. often times you'd say looking back "i'd add here" but many things can change, including and most importantly the opportunity set of "what else has changed"
- so when i look at B2B names, my benchmark are really the super liquid large cap stuff throwing off substantial cash. either your valuation is better or your growth is better, or ideally *both*. even tho i don't own
GOOGL, it's got better growth and trades cheaper than ALRM, same with 
META - faster and cheaper.
- does this meanALRM isn't a take out by some PE group that creates value inside their excel sheet and convinces a bunch of plebs to join in on the mental tug-a-roo exercise? no. but typically M&A/ take out is not really a factor in my valuation or "would i buy" list - it's a kicker to be sure.
- so 25x for MSD growth? 3-4% fcf yield, in the current environment? will it work...? possibly yes. not convinced it won't get cheaper and it's something i can live without. my main benchmark for "tech" (quotation marks) is this 5 bn dollar solar tech co called
NXT that does 10% implied FCF yields and will grow double digits. i think software is a category where you better know what their AI strategy is or the mkt will look at it suspiciously until proven innocent. semis, physical stuff, etc. not at "risk" of this taint.
- so this is a long msg to myself but to say, let's reassess if we drop into the 4-handles. realistically if/when we get there, i'll like to buy more BTC (w/
GDLC), more NXT and let's see where 
CELH stands and other B2B names.
- but for now it was worth re-assessing here as it "ding'd" on my screen.
be safe out there and as always drop a comment if you have something more nuanced to say on the name/ strategy or something you think the mkt might be missing
V
ALRMprobably a buy, but at this stage need sub $50
- pre my public notes i opined that i'd require a lower PE multiple in the current environment... *maybe* 25x next year w/b okay. well, we're pretty much there.
- but the importance of my keeping tabs on when/ how i make these assessments allows me to say "something's changed" or nothing's changed. often times you'd say looking back "i'd add here" but many things can change, including and most importantly the opportunity set of "what else has changed"
- so when i look at B2B names, my benchmark are really the super liquid large cap stuff throwing off substantial cash. either your valuation is better or your growth is better, or ideally *both*. even tho i don't own
GOOGL, it's got better growth and trades cheaper than ALRM, same with META - faster and cheaper.- does this mean
ALRM isn't a take out by some PE group that creates value inside their excel sheet and convinces a bunch of plebs to join in on the mental tug-a-roo exercise? no. but typically M&A/ take out is not really a factor in my valuation or "would i buy" list - it's a kicker to be sure. - so 25x for MSD growth? 3-4% fcf yield, in the current environment? will it work...? possibly yes. not convinced it won't get cheaper and it's something i can live without. my main benchmark for "tech" (quotation marks) is this 5 bn dollar solar tech co called
NXT that does 10% implied FCF yields and will grow double digits. i think software is a category where you better know what their AI strategy is or the mkt will look at it suspiciously until proven innocent. semis, physical stuff, etc. not at "risk" of this taint.- so this is a long msg to myself but to say, let's reassess if we drop into the 4-handles. realistically if/when we get there, i'll like to buy more BTC (w/
GDLC), more NXT and let's see where CELH stands and other B2B names.- but for now it was worth re-assessing here as it "ding'd" on my screen.
be safe out there and as always drop a comment if you have something more nuanced to say on the name/ strategy or something you think the mkt might be missing
V
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