Be careful with AMD !!!

Oct 30

In my opinion, the shares of this company are 14.5% overvalued and should reach a price of $137. The reason for the recent decline in AMD shares is due to cautious statements at Morgan Stanley. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell more than 3% on Tuesday following cautious comments from Morgan Stanley, highlighting concerns over the company's AI supply chain strategy.

Analysts noted that AMD appears to have reduced its wafer bookings for MI325 at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for 2025 due to uncertainty over MI325 demand. Morgan Stanley stated, 'It appears that AMD has reduced some of its CoWoS wafer bookings at TSMC for 2025 due to uncertainty over MI325 demand. This move indicates AMD's conservative approach to managing potential demand volatility for its AI processors.'

However, Morgan Stanley analysts added that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) quickly absorbed the vacated capacity at TSMC, emphasizing Nvidia's aggressive positioning in the AI market.

The bank's note also provides insight into broader trends in the semiconductor industry, indicating that other companies are ramping up production. For instance, Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) tripled its CoWoS bookings for 2025 compared to 2024. Meanwhile, Intel's Habana division kept its wafer bookings at TSMC unchanged, indicating stability in its AI-related production.

The cautious tone from analysts on AMD follows a period of intense competition in the AI space, with Nvidia strengthening its leadership. The note also mentions that 'WPG's sales in the third quarter grew 25% quarter-over-quarter, compared to previous guidance of only 5.5% quarter-over-quarter growth,' with the bank noting 'increased business from AMD processors and GPUs.

Oct 30

Note

MD's earnings matched, revenue exceeded estimates.
➖ The company reported third-quarter earnings per share of $0.92, in line with analysts' estimates of $0.92. Quarterly revenue was $6.82 billion versus the consensus estimate of $6.71 billion.
➖ The company sees Q4 2024 revenue at $7.50 billion versus analysts' consensus of $7.55 billion.
➖ AMD shares closed at $166.28, up 25.49% in the past 3 months and 72.88% in the past 12 months. Over the past 90 days, there have been 7 positive EPS revisions and 25 negative EPS revisions.