ARKK Short: Fibonacci darling
I came across an EW counts from a fellow EWer in Twitter but found the counting weird. So I decided to do my own counting. To my pleasant surprise, ARKK is a Fibonacci extension darling (and I love it when a chart follows Fibo levels). Warning: because of my tendency to love fibo levels, my psychological bias might force wave counts to fit (hopefully this time it is not).
So, as you can see, there is an primary counting and there is an alternate count in red. Both are valid. But why do I choose a short bias? The reason is more macro-fundamental than technical (technical is unbias now). The yield curve has inverted and we are seeing corporate profits falling and job cuts for previously financially-irresponsible companies (read: most big tech and big tech wannabes). Also, recent reports shows that retails are massively into the market (1.5B per day of inflow). This is not good. This is akin to the GFC where retail piles in at the start of the bear market. Also mortgage application down to all-time-low in the US. Fundamentally, things aren't looking good (even though jobs report is surprisingly good). Thus the bias.
So, as you can see, there is an primary counting and there is an alternate count in red. Both are valid. But why do I choose a short bias? The reason is more macro-fundamental than technical (technical is unbias now). The yield curve has inverted and we are seeing corporate profits falling and job cuts for previously financially-irresponsible companies (read: most big tech and big tech wannabes). Also, recent reports shows that retails are massively into the market (1.5B per day of inflow). This is not good. This is akin to the GFC where retail piles in at the start of the bear market. Also mortgage application down to all-time-low in the US. Fundamentally, things aren't looking good (even though jobs report is surprisingly good). Thus the bias.
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