AUDCHF is on fire next week. The good type of fire.

6 days ago

This week we saw the groundwork set for an AUDCHF longs revival trade.

We now have a nice cross-up of the MACD line up on the Signal line. For longs these are the best x-ups when they occur below the Zero-line like in all the examples in the following daily chart.

These can make huge moves and gains lasting days, weeks or even months but they do not necessarily constitute a trend reversal. When other confluence is confirmed such as divergences, moving averages providing price support, and MA's cross-ups they work out much better.

Another one I am monitoring that I think will be huge but not quite yet is AUDCAD.

6 days ago

Trade active

Buy AUDCHF next trading day if you see several MACD's in sync crossing up.

6 days ago

Note

I like to see the Daily, which is already perfectly positioned, 4HR, 1Hr, 15m and 5m if you really want to hone in on the trade. Tight stops can be obtained from the 5m, 15m or even hourly charts because price is scooped upwards and generally does not retrace for a while.

6 days ago

Order cancelled

I just had a closer look at this trade to go long on AUDCHF. I am not saying AUD won't cross up and make at least a temporary comeback, because it may, it's just that these trades from oversold levels require certain things to occur before hand. For example, they occur when the instrument is in a 'very deep' oversold state which causes the RSI to bounce when new buyers storm-in after seeing price value.
I see it testing the last low from months ago, price is almost there sitting just above, the magic will happen very soon, but some more selling is possible.
Let me leave you with something, so I have not wasted your time. This is what you want in these type of reversal trades and the 200ema does not have to be below daily price, although every other trade that is non-oversold or overbought, I do like to see the 200ema in its correct spot. In fact, I do use EMA's a lot and I like to see the whole lot stacked correctly before taking a trade notwithstanding this type of rare trade.

1.Very deep pullback ideally testing the last low over several months.
2. An RSI or Stochastic making a similar deep x-up or x-down a day or 2 prior to the MACD, however when it occurs simultaneously it is even more confirmation. MACD tends to lag them just a little.
3. Higher timeframes are king. Gold crossed up on a weekly or was it monthly chart back in around 2015 or there abouts and on those high TF's it has never returned to the oversold levels, however currency's do quite often and AUDCHF may do all of the above on a weekly chart in the near future. In the meantime also keep an eye on AUDCAD.
Fundamentally, I think Australia is not in a sound position economically because of the reliance on things like iron ore sold to a struggling Chinese economy. A huge stimulus injection into China would cross-up AUDCHF a couple of hours after it was announced.

5 days ago

Note

I went back and looked further at HTF charts & I did not see any divergences supporting a reversal just yet and for this type of MacD trade on a daily it is more supportive to have a Daily deep cross-up of the RSI and Stochastics as well. Also, the last daily candle is an indecision candle so really that tells me it could go either way.
Fundamentally Aust is not in great shape due to the China story and Aust. reliance on exporting coal, iron ore, gold & list goes on for exports.
Now lastly, a Macd reversal is often a signal for a temporary change in direction so that liquidity sweeps can be continued. Traders get trapped at the top of a buy liquidity zone which would be at a resistance area possibly tested multiple times. Traders go short at the top of this resistance zone and then price will usually break higher from a boxed consolidating zone and short traders will be trapped and / or stopped out. The vice versa appears when price has moved to a lower consolidating support zone. IE. Price will break lower trapping Longs and stopping them out.

5 days ago

Note

AUDCHF is currently breaking out for long trades on 1,2 and timeframes.