Trading Plan: AUD/JPY Monthly Sell Opportunity

3 days ago

### **Trading Plan: AUD/JPY Monthly Sell Opportunity**

#### **1. Market Analysis**
- **Timeframe:** Monthly
- **Trend Direction:** Analyze the previous 12-24 months' candles to determine the dominant trend.
- **Key Levels:**
- Last Month's High (LMH)
- Last Month's Low (LML)

#### **2. Identify Key Levels and Defense Zone**
- **Last Month’s High:** Mark the high of the previous monthly candle on the chart.
- **Fibonacci Vibration Grid (FVG):**
- Use the Fibonacci retracement tool from the recent swing low to swing high or vice versa to plot the FVG levels.
- Look for overlapping FVG zones above the last month’s high.
- **Defense Zone:**
- This is a resistance area formed by overlapping FVG levels and key price action zones.
- Ensure the defense zone aligns with institutional order blocks or liquidity voids.

#### **3. Entry Conditions**
- **Sell Trigger:**
- Price must enter the area above last month’s high and into the identified defense zone.
- Confirmation via bearish price action patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar, or inside bar formations).
- Look for rejection or significant wick formations in the defense zone.

#### **4. Risk Management**
- **Stop Loss (SL):**
- Place the SL slightly above the defense zone or the nearest swing high.
- **Take Profit (TP):**
- Set TP levels using:
- Last Month’s Low (LML) as the primary target.
- Extend TP to key support zones below LML if momentum supports further downside.
- **Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):**
- Maintain a minimum RRR of 1:3.

#### **5. Additional Confluences**
- **Last Line of Defense (LLD):**
- Identify the LLD as the highest resistance point above the LMH where price may reverse.
- Ensure it coincides with the FVG overlap and an institutional order block.
- **Volume Analysis:**
- Use the Volume Profile or On-Balance Volume (OBV) to assess institutional activity in the sell zone.
- **Indicators (Optional):**
- RSI divergence: Look for bearish divergence when price approaches the defense zone.
- Moving Averages: Check for alignment with the bearish trend.

#### **6. Execution Plan**
- Wait for price to approach and react within the defense zone.
- Observe confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., daily or 4H) for better precision in entries.
- Scale into the position if the market provides multiple rejection points within the zone.

#### **7. Monitoring and Adjustments**
- Reassess the trade if price closes above the defense zone on the monthly timeframe.
- Trail the stop loss using key resistance levels or moving averages if the trade moves significantly in your favor.

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